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Major League Baseball: The Meaning and Impact of the Lockout Major League Baseball: The Meaning and Impact of the Lockout
Derek McLaughlin
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Major League Baseball: The Meaning and Impact of the Lockout
Written by Derek McLaughlin
Honors 4980
Mentored by Dustin White
9th May 2022
McLaughlin 2
Table of Contents
Abstract 3
Methodology 4
Introduction 5
History of MLB Lockouts and Strikes 6-10
Negotiations and Results of 2021-2022 MLB Lockout 11-15
Insights 15-39
Revenue vs Payroll 15-18
Impact on Ticket Revenue per Game 18-19
Impact on Attendance 19-21
Collective Balance Threshold 22-25
League Minimum Salary 26-27
Service Time Manipulation Incentives 27-30
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool 31
Expanded Playoffs 31-34
Rule Changes 35-39
Conclusion 39-40
Works Cited 41-44
McLaughlin 3
Abstract
Major League Baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement expired after the 2021 season,
which resulted in a lockout. There was an uncertainty of lost games during the lockout. After
ninety-nine days an agreement was reached between Major League Baseball and the players’
union. Throughout this research, I explored what would have happened as of a result of lost
games. Statistics from previous seasons suggest what could have occurred had there not been
an agreement prior to the start of the season, while the new agreement suggest the motivation
behind the new agreement.
Keywords: Collective Bargaining Agreement, Major League Baseball, lockout, strike, revenue,
union
McLaughlin 4
Methodology
Throughout this research I used qualitative and quantitative data. Numerical data from
the past about the history of Major League Baseball was used to calculate insights about what
would have been had the 2021-2022 MLB Lockout resulted in a loss of games. A wide range of
years were used to investigate motives behind current and past labor stoppages within the
history of Major League Baseball. Modern day journalism from reliable sources were used to
explore and keep up with the current event.
McLaughlin 5
Introduction
On December 2
nd
, 2021 the Collective Bargaining Agreement between Major League
Baseball (MLB) and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) expired. The two
sides attempted to work out a deal in between the end of the season and the expiration date,
but there was space between the two sides in most areas of discussion. The MLBPA wanted
higher minimum salaries and more protection for younger players, but the league and owners
were unwilling to move toward the union’s proposals. Since the agreement expired and no
replacement was in place, the league moved towards a lockout. The difference between a
lockout and strike is which party initiates the labor stoppage. Lockouts are initiated by the MLB
and team owners, while strikes are initiated by the MLBPA. This lockout following the 2021
season was not the first labor stoppage in Major League Baseball history. The league has seen a
history of work stoppage, but were the stoppages preventable?
According to Rodney Fort in his book, Sports Economics, lockouts and strikes in baseball
happen for certain reasons and are avoidable. These occur because miscalculations of the
amount on the table. The potential loss (in games, salary, and sales) must be worth the
stoppage for what could come from the lockout or strike, which is a breakeven probability
above 50% for it to be worth it (Fort, 2018). Each side measures the ability to withstand a
lockout or strike, then proceeds in the negotiations of the dispute. The side less likely to survive
the lockout understands that their probability to withstand will result in a loss of resources, so
they will show urgency to end the stoppage. Work stoppages happen infrequently due to the
calculations that the sides can make. Major League Baseball still has had multiple lockouts
dating back to 1969.
McLaughlin 6
History of MLB Lockouts and Strikes
The first stoppage in Major League Baseball occurred in 1969. This stoppage is often
overlooked since it was brief and short, but it was still the first strike and about the pension
plan that the league had in place. The strike did not result in lost games since the league had
agreed quickly to reduce the amount of time of achieve tenure from five years to four years.
The minimum age requirement was also reduced from fifty to forty-five. Players received over
five and half million dollars from the league with a percentage of television revenues every
season (“Year in Review: 1969 National League,” n.d.). There was a short spring training delay,
but all negotiations were complete before losing regular season games.
The agreement expired after the 1971 season, so the players went on strike. One again
the strike was about the pension, but the two sides came to an agreement for an added
increase of $500,000 in pension fund payments. Thirteen regular season days were lost, which
resulted in a loss of games that were not made up (“1972 Strike,” 2020). Since these games
were not made up, some teams could be at a disadvantage in the standings. There was one
major effect of the games not being made up, which hurt the Boston Red Sox in their division.
The Detroit Tigers won the division because the Red Sox finished half a game back in the
standings. The Tigers won one more game than the Red Sox but had the same number of
losses. The uneven difference came from the inability to make up games lost from the strike
earlier in the season.
In 1973, the league saw its first work stoppage in the form of a lockout. The owners
wanted to reach an agreement over the usage of arbitration to resolve salary conflicts before
they proceeded with any games. This was huge in the grand scheme of contracts for years to
McLaughlin 7
come since player contracts had been controlled through the reserve clause. The union and
owners agreed that players with two consecutive seasons of service time or three years of
inconsecutive service time could use arbitration to resolve salary disputes. The agreement was
reached before the regular season and only impacted the beginning of spring training. Pitchers
and catchers were the only ones affected since those positions report to the spring training site
before other positional players.
The lockout of 1976 played a pivotal moment in how contracts were shaped and
negotiated for the history of baseball. Players were bound to one team under the reserve
clause unless their team reassigned, traded, sold, or released them. Players had very little
bargaining power in contract negotiations due to the reserve clause. Before the addition of
arbitration in 1973, players either had to essentially accept the contract offer from the team or
sit and lose out on the ability to play. The ability to keep using the reserve clause came to an
end during the offseason following the 1975 season (Perry, 2020). Two players that off-season
named Andy Messersmith and David McNally had each gone a full season without a contract.
Peter Seitz, an independent arbitrator, ruled in the players’ favor saying they were free agents
since they had gone a full season without a contract (Perry, 2020). A federal judge ruled in the
arbitrator’s favor. This was the end of the reserve clause.
Before the 1976 season, the players and league disagreed on how free agency should be
set up. The sides were far from an agreement but did not want to lose out on regular season
games because of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The season started under the
previous agreement. In July of that season, a new agreement was made.
McLaughlin 8
In 1980, the Collective Bargaining Agreement had expired. No time was lost since both
sides accepted playing without a new agreement. This set the stage for a long fight going into
the 1981 season. The season began in a strike and regular season games were lost.
Since the owners lost out on the fight to retain players through the reserve clause, free
agency took some adjusting to from an ownership standpoint. Owners wanted to be
compensated for any losses they had during free agency. After months of negotiations, the
sides agreed on that teams that lost a premium free agent would be compensated of a player of
that caliber by drawing from a pool of players available that were labeled as unprotected from
all the clubs. Players agreed to being able to enter free agency after six full years, which is the
same amount of time players can enter free agency after today (Peter, 2017).
To resolve the loss of games in 1981, the league split the season into two halves. The
winner of a division in each half of a season would go onto the playoffs. This system was flawed
since there were teams with some of the best records but did not make the playoffs. The
Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals would have each made the playoffs and won the division
under normal circumstances but did not since neither won their division within a half of the
season. Each team had the best record within their division if one combined their record
between halves. The Kansas City Royals benefited from this system for the 1981 season as they
had the fourth best record within their division but won the best record for one of the halves.
The strike in 1985 was brief and short. Twenty-five games were lost in the middle of the
season but made up at the end of the regular season. So, no games were truly lost (Chass,
1985). The MLB had signed a massive television deal that players wanted to get a larger share
McLaughlin 9
of, and an agreement was met. Owners wanted a salary arbitration cap, but this did not
happen. The season went on with only the agreement on revenue share.
In 1990, the owners voted and agreed to a lockout. Owners wanted to add a salary
capacity to the league, while players wanted a larger share of the revenue. The league did not
put a salary cap into place as the MLBPA noted that a salary cap would limit the number of
teams a player could play for. A team over a salary cap must make roster and contract moves to
get below the capacity before signing another player. Not having a salary cap allows any team
to approach a player without having to make changes to their payroll or roster. Owners wanted
a salary cap to limit the salaries of players from growing too rapidly. The biggest change that
was seen from this lockout was an increase in league minimum salary to $100,000 from
$68,000 (Fagan, 2018). A study team on revenue sharing was established to help with the
continued fight on revenue share. No regular season games were lost because of the lockout.
Spring training was missed, and the beginning/end of season were pushed back to keep a full
season intact.
The strike of 1994-1995 caused the largest cancellation of games in baseball history.
This strike occurred mid 1994 season, where it continued through the beginning of the 1995
season. It was the first time in American sports that a playoff/postseason was cancelled
because of a work stoppage.
The Collective Bargaining Agreement expired on December 31
st
, 1993 before the 1994
season began. The fight in this strike was over revenue share amongst teams and a salary cap.
Ownership wanted to spread the share of local broadcasting revenue to increase equity
amongst teams and put a salary cap in place. This was to help smaller-market teams that do not
McLaughlin 10
have the funds to compete with the larger pockets of other teams. The owners also wanted to
reduce the amount of time until free agency for players to four years from six, then teams can
match a contract offer from other clubs seeking their player after their fourth and fifth seasons.
The MLBPA saw this as a way for owners to save money, which gave no benefits to the players.
The strike was introduced to Congress in January of 1995 after the stalling of
negotiations in late 1994. President Bill Clinton put orders into place that the league and union
needed to reach an agreement that February. The President’s given deadline was not met, and
the league was ready to proceed with replacement players who would be making far less
money than the league average player. A day before the season would have started with
replacement players, the strike ended when Judge Sotomayor of the United States District
Court for the Southern District of New York issued a preliminary injunction against the owners
(Scott, 2021). The league proceeded to the 1995 season with a reduced regular season. Each
team played 144 regular season games. The lockout lasted 232 days. The league was ordered to
play under the expired agreement for the time being.
Aside from the hundreds of millions of dollars lost from ticket sales and the postseason,
the league felt a push back from fans in the 1995 season. Attendance numbers had dropped
around 20% where they were previously (Badenhausen, 2014). It took the league a few years to
get back to regular attendance numbers. Fans blamed both the league and MLBPA for the
incident according to a survey done by Time Magazine. The 1994-1995 strike was the last work
stoppage to happen before the 2021-2022 MLB lockout.
McLaughlin 11
Negotiations and Results of 2021-2022 MLB Lockout
The lockout of the 2022 season was a 99-day fight and negotiation between the league
and the MLBPA about an abundant number of topics. An agreement was reached that will run
through the 2026 season. Some of those topics negotiated upon were the luxury tax, minimum
salary, competitive integrity, and service time manipulation. Before digging into negotiations
and agreements, understanding the motive behind the topics is important.
The luxury tax, also known as the Competitive Balance Threshold (CBT), was put into
place instead to help maintain a competitive balance between small and big market teams.
While the owners have wanted a salary cap for years, this serves as one in a way. While it is not
a true salary cap, teams must pay a tax on any amount that exceeds the luxury tax set for that
season. The higher the luxury tax, the more a player can negotiate before that team has to pay
a tax for overages.
Minimum salary is discussed every single Collective Bargaining Agreement due to the
league’s growth in revenue. The veterans of the league pushed for an increase in minimum
salary to help younger players who have less bargaining power for their contract. The table
below, Service Time and Contracts, shows the amount of service time that a player needs to
enter a certain negotiation status for their contract. A player on an MLB roster for 172 days
accrues a year of service time.
Service Time and Contracts
Years of Service Time Status
0 < 3 Pre-Arbitration
3 ≤ x < 6 Arbitration
> 6 Free Agency
McLaughlin 12
When players are in a pre-arbitration status, they have less input in their salary.
Competitive integrity is a concern due to the fact the worse off a team does, the higher
draft pick they have next season. Hypothetically if a team is struggling and can mathematically
define themselves out of contention for the playoffs, they have no motive to win more games.
If they win more games, they are hurting their draft position. The league is searching for a way
to prevent teams from doing this.
Service time manipulation is of hot topic every season since teams hold back players of
certain caliber to gain another year of service time. Hypothetically if a player spends 170 days
on the MLB roster, they do not accrue a season of service time. When that player plays their
sixth season, they will technically be just under six years of service time. This gives the team
another year of team control. Teams have been doing this with top prospects for years, and the
league is looking for a way to prevent this with incentives for teams that practice this method.
In the negotiations over a new luxury tax, the MLBPA and MLB have wide differences in
where the tax should be set at. The owners want a lower threshold to point to in terms of
negotiating contracts, while players want a higher threshold for more negotiating power.
Players initially proposed a start of $238 million that grows to $263 million through the end of
the agreement. The owners wanted a tax threshold to sit at $220 million that grows to $230
million through the end of the agreement (Thosar, 2022). Eventually it was settled on $230
million for 2022 that grows to $244 million through 2026.
There was a wide difference in minimum salary negotiations to start. For the first year of
the new agreement the MLBPA wanted the minimum to start at $775,000. The league had an
McLaughlin 13
initial offer of $700,000 that had increases of $10,000 per season (Axisa, 2022). Eventually it
was agreed on that the minimum salary will start at $700,000 with increases of $20,000 per
season. To help younger players, a pre-arbitration bonus pool of $50 million was put into place
to distribute amongst the top pre-arbitration players (Gartland, 2022).
To prevent teams from tanking and help with competitive integrity, the league
implemented a draft lottery. The top three picks are evenly distributed for odds to get the top
pick. The teams with the three worst winning percentages will each receive a 16.5% chance to
get the first selection of the draft (Gartland, 2022). The remaining 50.5% is distributed amongst
the other 15 non-playoff teams. The 12 teams that make the playoffs are placed within the
draft where they finish in the playoffs.
To help slow down the manipulation of service time, the league is offering incentives to
teams that bring up their younger prospects. Those teams will be awarded draft picks for not
preventing them from accruing a year of service time. Young players have an incentive to finish
in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting. Most rookies strive to win the award, but now
those that finish top two in voting will be awarded a year of service time regardless of what
they accrue.
The playoffs expanded from a total of five to six teams in each league, which results in a
total of 12 teams (Gartland, 2022). The traditional one game play-in for the wild card teams is
not a part of the system anymore. There are three division winners and three wild cards from
each league. The top two division winners by record receive a bye-round, while the other four
will play series against each other. The remaining division winner will play the wild card team
with the worst record, while the other two wild cards will play to advance. The top division
McLaughlin 14
winner will play the winner of a best of three series between the two wild cards, while the
second highest record of division winner will play the winner of the best of three series
between the remaining division winner and wild card team with the worst record. After that,
the format does not change.
Game 163 will no longer be used to determine any tie breaker for a division winner or
wild card spot. A list of tie breakers will be used and followed to determine the playoff spot.
The league removed this game to keep the World Series on schedule.
The league now can bring rule changes with a 45-day notice to the MLBPA (Stebbins,
2022). Aside from an expanded playoff, the league is bringing a universal designated hitter to
the game. This position hits in place of the pitcher and was only used in the American League
rather than both the American and National Leagues. Going forward it will be in both. This will
give a larger market for those players who may still hit at an elite level, but do not play the field
well. There is a possibility of 30 teams rather than 15 teams for that player to go to in free
agency.
The league has made it clear there are plenty of changes they would like to bring to
better the game. The priority per the commissioner is to get pitching clocks that force pitchers
to work faster. The amount of time in between pitches thrown has increased from year to year,
which has made games longer. A pitching clock is being tested out at the minor leagues’ levels.
Another change being explored is the idea of increasing the size of bases to reduce player
injuries. Automatic strike zones and robot umpires are options being explored to improve the
efficiency of strike zones. These would all be changes that would take some getting used to, but
McLaughlin 15
something that could happen with the MLB’s ability to introduce new rules (Gartland, 2022).
The rules will be tested in the minor leagues prior to entering the highest level of competition.
The two sides came to agreement in March 2022. This was the owners’ proposal in
which they voted unanimously 30-0. The MLBPA did vote did not have a unanimous vote. The
vote from the MLBPA comes from eight board representatives and a player representative from
each team. The player representatives voted 26-4, while the eight board representatives
unanimously voted against the new proposal (“United during Negotiations, MLB Players Divided
on Deal,” 2022). The players guided the vote to an agreement.
Insights: Revenue vs Payroll
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, Major League Baseball had a continuous rise in revenue
between the years of 2011-2019. In 2011, the league brought in over $6 billion dollars in
revenue and continued to grow to a league record $10.37 billion in 2019. Revenue for the
league grew by at least 4% from one season to the next. MLB Revenue numbers are from
$2,000,000,000
$3,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$5,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$7,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$9,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$11,000,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Revenue
Year
MLB Revenue
McLaughlin 16
Statista.
Part of the reason the players’ union fought for changes to the MLB Collective
Bargaining Agreement was due to the change in the players’ average payroll in that same time
frame. In 2011, the league’s average payroll was sitting at $101.6 million dollars. As revenue
continued to grow, the team’s payroll continued to increase until 2018. That is the first year in
the timeframe of 2011-2019 that payroll decreased as league revenue increased. The decline
from 2017 to 2018 was 1.26%. The following season had a decline of under 1%, but nonetheless
a decrease. The union noticed this trend and took action in the CBA negotiations. The payroll
averages are from Spotrac.
The union understands that they are not going to take home most of the revenue due to
the stake owners have invested, but they want to see an increase in the share of what was
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
$80,000,000
$90,000,000
$100,000,000
$110,000,000
$120,000,000
$130,000,000
$140,000,000
$150,000,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Payroll
Year
MLB Team Average Payroll
McLaughlin 17
earned in revenue by an increase in average team payroll that following season. To compare
the change in an average payroll that is in the range of around $100 to $140 million to league
revenue that is between $6 to $10.5 billion is complex to compare. To visualize the difference in
seasons between 2011 to 2019, the growth percentage from season to season of league
revenue and team payroll were calculated and placed together in the chart named MLB
Revenue Growth vs Payroll Growth.
While how much change occurs bounces around on the graph, revenue has seen growth
from year-to-year. Payroll in 2018 and 2019 each declined from the previous season. From the
years 2017-2019, the league’s revenue grew about 5% annually. If average payrolls grew at a
similar rate in that same time frame as revenue, the average payroll for 2019 would have been
over $154 million.
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Growth
Year
MLB Revenue Growth vs Payroll Growth
MLB Revenue Growth MLB Payroll Growth
McLaughlin 18
One will want to consider the size of the roster when creating an average, but the
payroll is calculated across each team’s 40-man roster. The MLB breaks down rosters into 25-
man and 40-man rosters. The 25-man roster consist of players who are actively on the Major
League Baseball roster, while the 40-man roster consist of those 25 players plus another 15 that
are signed to a major league contract but are in the minor leagues. Those 15 players need to be
on the 40-man roster to be eligible for a Major League Baseball call-up from the minor leagues.
After the 2019 season, the active MLB roster was expanded from 25 to 26. Due to
COVID-19, teams were able to hold 28 players for that 2020 impacted season. Regardless, a
difference in roster sizes does not exist to impact the average payroll. All teams are required to
have 40 players on the 40-man roster. These changes in payrolls compared to the league’s
revenue growth was a large motive for the lockout.
Impact on Ticket Revenue per Game
From 2011 through 2019, ticket revenue accounted from anywhere from 21.8% to
31.8% of the league’s total revenue. The accounted amount has decreased every year in that
timeframe, but still a reasonable share. Revenue has grown at a much higher rate. Ticket
revenue was calculated using the average ticket price multiplied by the average attendance.
Ticket price was found on Statista and attendance came from Baseball Reference.
Assuming revenue trends remain like the previous years, these numbers would be
comparable to what the league would lose on a per game basis from a lost game for every team
in the 2022 regular season. Had the league lost 10% of their games this season, the league
would lose out on roughly $226,000,000 in ticket revenue and $1,037,000,070 in total revenue.
McLaughlin 19
These numbers are based off 2019 earnings. Average face value of tickets was used in
calculating ticket revenue.
Impact on Attendance
From what is earned from a game in ticket revenue and overall revenue, the league
learned quickly what was at stake for the 2021-2022 lockout. The last time the league had a
work stoppage that resulted in a loss of games was in 1994 and 1995. The strike lost the MLB a
total of 948 games, including the 1994 postseason and 18 regular season games for each team
in the 1995 season.
The season the last stoppage began, 1994, the league had an increase of roughly one
percent in attendance from the previous season until the season had come to a stoppage. Once
play resumed in 1995, fans reacted in a manner that signaled they lost interest in attending
games. The attendance numbers came from Baseball Reference.
Average attendance moved from 30,964 in 1993 to 25,024 in 1995. The 1995 season
was just over 80% of what the pre-strike year had in attendance. It took until the 1997 MLB
season for the league to be at 90% of what the league had in average attendance prior to the
Year Ticket Revenue per Game Revenue per Game
2011 813,435$ 2,617,284$
2012 831,146$ 2,802,469$
2013 836,793$ 2,921,811$
2014 847,536$ 3,234,568$
2015 908,649$ 3,452,675$
2016 934,061$ 3,716,049$
2017 949,878$ 3,893,004$
2018 929,698$ 4,074,074$
2019 930,417$ 4,267,490$
McLaughlin 20
strike in 1993. The MLB’s average attendance did not crack an average attendance above
31,000 until 2006, which was the pace the 1994 season was on until the stoppage.
Granted it was a strike rather than lockout, so fans could react differently. Fans view the
players and owners differently. Strikes are stoppages by the union, while lockouts are
conducted by the league. Assuming a modern day lockout would have the same impact of the
1994-1995 strike, it would give the attendance change below.
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
110.00%
1993 1994* 1995* 1996 1997
Percent of 1993
Year
MLB Attendance 1993-1997: Effects of Strike
*Strike Year
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Attendance
Year
Effects of 1994-1995 Strike: Present Day Impact
Actual Attendance Effect of 1994-1995 Strike
McLaughlin 21
The first year, 2015, represents the same impact as seen in 1994. This year is set as if
the league went into the season thinking that an agreement would have been reached for a
new CBA that season. The second year shows 2016 to represent the league returning in a state
like that of when the league returned from the work stoppage in 1995. In 2016, the league
would lose an average of $186,598 per game in ticket revenue. In 2017, the league would lose
an average of $138,629 per game in ticket revenue. In 2018, $58,437 would have been lost on
average in comparison to the actual earned per game. Not until 2019 does it look to the eye
that the league has recovered. The difference is $7,757 per game the league would be losing
per game had they been in a recovery like the 1994-1995 strike. Over the course of a season
that equates to almost $19 million lost in total ticket revenue.
From the years 2015-2019, Major League Baseball’s attendance was declining.
Attendance was down over 7% in 2019 compared to 2015. The 10% increase in ticket prices in
that same time resulted in an increase of 2.40% in ticket revenue per game to counter the loss
in attendance.
The 1994-1995 strike served as a lesson to the league during the 2021-2022 lockout
before any games could be lost. Had fans had a negative reaction to the extent of where it
prevented them from going to games, millions of dollars would be lost. Like stated previously,
had the league lost over $7,000 per game it would result in over $19 million revenue being lost.
There was concern whether the lockout would have a negative impact on attendance, but
through the first week of the year attendance is averaging over 28,000 spectators. The numbers
are on par with those before the COVID-19 impacted seasons.
McLaughlin 22
Collective Balance Threshold
As a result of the new agreement, the league and union agreed to changes to the
Collective Balance Threshold (CBT). Below shows the threshold since 2018 and change through
the end of the new agreement.
In 2021, the league had a Collective Balance Threshold of $210,000,000. The new
agreement brought an increase of nearly 10% for the 2022 season. The growth takes the
threshold number to $230 million in 2022 and has increases to $244 million through 2026
(“Competitive Balance Tax: Glossary,” n.d.).
The threshold is to help maintain competitiveness; the increase will now give players
more bargaining power when those players enter unrestricted free agency. The higher the
threshold, the more that Major League Baseball teams can spend without being penalized.
While there are not many teams that spend over $200 million a season, in recent years there
still are a few teams that will. Fans worry that teams that outspend most of the competition will
lead to those teams taking over the league.
Year CBT Threshold Percent Change
2018 197,000,000.00$ 1.03%
2019 206,000,000.00$ 4.57%
2020 208,000,000.00$ 0.97%
2021 210,000,000.00$ 0.96%
2022 230,000,000.00$ 9.52%
2023 233,000,000.00$ 1.30%
2024 237,000,000.00$ 1.72%
2025 241,000,000.00$ 1.69%
2026 244,000,000.00$ 1.24%
McLaughlin 23
The graph below shows the relationship between winning and payroll across the 2021
season. The R
2
value in this relationship is 0.2732, which indicates that there is a low correlation
between these two variables. The win-loss record information came from MLB’s records.
A higher amount spent on payroll does not mean that it cannot help that team win more
games. Before the playoff expansion agreed upon for the 2022 season, ten teams made the
MLB Postseason. Eight of those ten teams that made the playoff were in the top half of highest
spenders. The team with the second highest winning percentage last season was the Los
Angeles Dodgers, who were the only team over the Collective Bargaining Threshold. This means
they were the only team that had to pay the luxury tax. The Dodgers did not go onto to win the
2021 World Series but were two wins away from making it to the World Series. The winner of
R² = 0.2732
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
$0 $50,000,000 $100,000,000 $150,000,000 $200,000,000 $250,000,000 $300,000,000
Win Percentage
Payroll
Payroll vs Win Percentage
McLaughlin 24
the World Series in 2021 was the Atlanta Braves, who were just outside of the top ten spenders
on payroll at $153,060,458.
The unique teams that made the postseason in comparison to those who were top
spenders were the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays. The Brewers were the 19
th
highest
spender, while the Rays were 26
th
(bottom 1/6
th
of the league) as seen in the graphic on the
next page. The Rays had the third highest win percentage in all of baseball yet were a bottom
five spender in the league. This is not a fluke as the Rays have the reputation for being toward
the lower ranks in payroll spendings year-in and year-out while winning a high amount of
games. According to Spotrac, the Rays spent the third fewest (28
th
of 30) in 2020 and made the
World Series against the league’s second highest spenders in the Los Angeles Dodgers. They did
not win the 2020 World Series, but they run a successful business model of high win percentage
and low payroll.
Through the years 2010 to 2019, the Tampa Bay Rays had the sixth most regular season
wins in baseball. In that same timeframe they were in the bottom third of spending every single
season according to Spotrac. In the years 2011, 2018 and 2019 they were the lowest spender. It
is important to note that money can buy and retain talent for a team, but there are teams that
demonstrate scouting and evaluating talent is undervalued. The Rays are one of the most
successful demonstrations of this in recent years. The low R
2
value of 0.2732 in the relationship
between win percentage and payroll indicates that there is no correlation between the two. So
next time anybody gives their Yankee fan friend banter about how they spend all that money
on talent for their roster, think about how there is not a strong correlation between winning
and payroll. The Boston Red Sox in 2018 were the only team since 2011 that has won the World
McLaughlin 25
Series and had the highest payroll across the league. They also were the only team in that time
frame that won the World Series and had to pay any sort of luxury tax following that season.
The Collective Balance Threshold applies to everybody, but realistically only applies to
the small handful of teams that flirt with the threshold. It helps the big market teams that are
willing to spend as much money on retaining their players and obtaining new top-dollar players
to better their rosters. The union have used this new threshold as a hopeful winning hand that
will encourage owners of teams to spend more money on their player payroll, even if that
means they are just increasing their payroll from the previous season. Average payroll of 2019
compared to 2021 average payroll was down about $6 million. The 2021-2022 MLB lockout
ended on March 10
th
, which gave teams little time to adjust to the 9.52% increase of the
threshold. The little time did not matter though, as the league’s average payroll for the 2022
season is $146,103,720. That is a record high average payroll for the league. The union and
players hope of an increased CBT that nudges owners to spend more is trending up.
2021 MLB Team Payroll and Record
Payroll Rank Team Wins Losses Payroll
1 Los Angeles Dodgers† 106 56 $266,020,809
2 New York Yankees† 92 70 $205,669,863
3 New York Mets 77 85 $201,189,189
4 Philadelphia Phillies 82 80 $197,213,223
5 Houston Astros† 95 67 $194,472,041
6 Boston Red Sox† 92 70 $187,100,784
7 Los Angeles Angels 77 85 $180,349,558
8 San Diego Padres 79 83 $179,764,272
9 San Francisco Giants† 107 55 $171,890,308
10 St. Louis Cardinals† 90 72 $171,469,994
11 Atlanta Braves†† 88 73 $153,060,458
12 Toronto Blue Jays 91 71 $150,140,253
13 Chicago Cubs 71 91 $144,607,670
14 Washington Nationals 65 97 $144,415,187
15 Chicago White Sox† 93 69 $140,926,169
LEAGUE AVERAGE $132,206,525
16 Cincinnati Reds 83 79 $125,887,446
17 Minnesota Twins 73 89 $120,084,606
18 Colorado Rockies 74 87 $116,408,966
19 Milwaukee Brewers† 95 67 $99,377,415
20 Texas Rangers 60 102 $95,788,819
21 Kansas City Royals 74 88 $91,595,545
22 Arizona Diamondbacks 52 110 $91,232,929
23 Oakland Athletics 86 76 $90,900,598
24 Detroit Tigers 77 85 $86,348,945
25 Seattle Mariners 90 72 $83,837,448
26 Tampa Bay Rays† 100 62 $70,836,327
27 Miami Marlins 67 95 $58,157,900
28 Pittsburgh Pirates 61 101 $54,356,609
29 Cleveland Indians 80 82 $50,670,534
30 Baltimore Orioles 52 110 $42,421,870
Playoff Team†
World Series Champion††
McLaughlin 26
League Minimum Salary
Another change the league introduced to the new Collective Bargaining Agreement was
an increase in league minimum salaries. One statement continuously repeated from the
representatives and players fighting for more in a new agreement was along the lines that is
they were motived to protect young players. Players that are eligible for arbitration do not get
that right until they have accrued at least three years of service time. Once a player hits the
service time of six years, they can they go freely negotiate with any team at terms and a price
tag they are willing to pursue.
According to CBS Sports, in 2019 nearly two thirds of players that stepped onto the field
on opening day had less than three years of service time. Based on the MLB Minimum Salary
chart, most of these players were making around $555,000. The league average salary in 2019
was over $4 million that season. Players under three years of service time accounted for 53.6%
of days of service time accumulated, but they combined for only 9.8% of player pay. Teams
have been building their rosters around younger players because they cost significantly less
than a veteran player who has accumulated over six years of service time. Players that have
earned the right to negotiate their contracts in full pull the league average up tremendously.
There have been five new Collective Bargaining Agreements agreed upon during the 21
st
century in the MLB. The league minimum salary has seen a rise from the previous season after
that new agreement was put into place each time. The amount changed varied from agreement
to agreement, but the most recent agreement has had the second highest percent change jump
in the 21
st
century. The MLB Minimum Salary chart shows that jump to be a 22.70% increase
from the 2021 season.
McLaughlin 27
The Union fought for a higher number than what was agreed upon but still proceeded to
move forward with a significant increase to pay those players under three years of service time
because of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
Service Time Manipulation Incentives
Earlier in this paper it was stated how most players on MLB active rosters sit around
three years of service time. For years it has been known the front offices of big-league teams
blatantly manipulate service time to their benefit by stating that a player may not be ready for
the highest level of baseball until a certain point in the season. To accumulate one complete
year of service time, a player must have been on the major league roster or Injured List (IL) for
172 days of the 187 regular season days in a season. To keep a top prospect under team control
and a more affordable contract, teams will keep a player in the minor leagues until that player
can not accrue 172 or more days of service time that season. In the long run, this gives the
team an extra year of team control. This has been a fight for years, but it is something that is
hard to prove. Kris Bryant and the Cubs had a situation in which Bryant fought for a year of
service time back but was unable to win due to the lack of hard proof of service time
manipulation.
MLB Minimum Salary
Year Salary Change
2018 545,000$ 1.87%
2019 555,000$ 1.83%
2020 563,500$ 1.53%
2021 570,500$ 1.24%
2022 700,000$ 22.70%
2023 720,000$ 2.86%
2024 740,000$ 2.78%
2025 760,000$ 2.70%
2026 780,000$ 2.63%
BOLD = New CBA
McLaughlin 28
Teams can easily say how they want to get that player more at bats in the minor leagues
prior to them being at the highest level because in their eyes that prospect is not ready. In the
MLB 2019 Debuts by Service Time Cutoff table, it shows the number of debuts based on the
time period. This data was reported by Beyond the Box Score.
Opening week (03/20 – 04/01) indicates the first full round of teams’ pitching rotations.
A series in Japan in mid 2019 March between the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics made
the official opening day start a bit sooner than compared to when the rest of the league
started. Pre-cutoff (04/04 – 04/19) is the time frame after opening week that a player can still
accrue a full year of service time. Post-cutoff (04/20 and beyond) is the time when a player can
not possibly accrue a full year of service time. The top 100 prospects are a list of prospects that
are defined as the top 100 prospects in baseball per writers on the MLB website. A prospect is a
player who has not surpassed the threshold of rookie status.
Opening week that season saw the greatest number of debuts per day at 3.6 debuts. It
is common to see so many debuts since there are restrictions where a club must give a player
an opportunity after a certain time, or they could lose them through waivers or a draft. Pre-
cutoff saw very little opportunity for any players, and none for players classified as a top 100
prospect. Once the post-cutoff hit, the league saw more top 100 prospect debuts than the
previous two periods combined. Was a month or less of time really all a prospect needed to be
MLB 2019 Debuts by Service Time Cutoff (as of end of May 2019)
Period Period Length (days) Player Debuts Top 100 Prospects Dubuts per day Top 100 Prospects Debuts
Opening Week 7 25 4 3.6 16%
Pre-Cutoff 18 16 0 0.9 0%
Post-Cutoff 29 45 10 1.6 22%
McLaughlin 29
prepared or developed from where they were pre-cutoff? Keeping those ten top 100 prospects
that had their debut after the cutoff date put those ten players under another year of team
control. That means they have another year to add to their tally before they can enter free
agency with full control.
In the recent negotiations, the union and the league came to an agreement on
incentivizes for teams to start calling up prospects prior to the league cutoff date for a player to
get a full year of service time. The league is offering draft picks for those teams that promote a
player to the opening day roster and keep them up for a full season. If that player finishes in the
top three in Rookie of the Year voting or Top 5 in MVP (award for Most Valuable Player)/Cy
Young (award for top pitcher) voting before they are eligible for arbitration (three or more
years of service time). At the time of this being written, it is difficult to see the full effects of
how these changes will affect service time manipulation. As of mid-April, 14 of the top 100
prospects according to MLB’s website were on a Major League Baseball roster. That is a huge
jump from previous years, and positive movement in reducing the amount of service time
manipulation. Three top five prospects in Bobby Witt Jr., Spencer Torkelson, and Julio
Rodriguez got their chance on opening day.
To protect players from being moved up and down between the minors and majors, the
new Collective Bargaining Agreement agreed that players can only be optioned five times per
season. Optioning a player means the club can move them to the minors without them being
subject to waivers, where another team can claim that player through the waiver wire. This
addition now saves players from being moved around constantly.
McLaughlin 30
Players who finish top two within their respective league’s Rookie of the Year voting will
now receive a full year of service time regardless of when they are called up. On the next page
are the list of players from the years 2011 through 2021 that would receive a full year of service
time had this rule been in place at the time. The first name that year indicates that player won
the Rookie of the Year, and the next name is the runner-up. The data came from Baseball
Reference.
In 2015, Kris Bryant played 151 regular season games and the Cubs played a 162 regular
season games. They Cubs kept him in the minor leagues just long enough to have him lose out
on a full year of service time. This essentially bought the Cubs another year of team control
before Bryant could enter free agency. Had the Cubs called him up a day sooner, he would have
entered free agency in the offseason of 2020-2021 rather than the offseason of 2021-2022. A
player that would have benefited heavily from this rule is Gary Sanchez in 2016. Sanchez played
just 53 regular season games as a positional player.
American League National League
Year Player Position Games Played Year Player Position Games Played
2011 Jeremy Hellickson P 29 2011 Craig Kimbrel P 79
2011 Mark Trumbo OF 149 2011 Freddie Freeman 1B 157
2012 Mike Trout OF 139 2012 Bryce Harper OF 139
2012 Yoenis Cespedes OF 129 2012 Wade Miley P 32
2013 Wil Myers† OF 88 2013 Jose Fernandez P 28
2013 Jose Iglesias SS 109 2013 Yasiel Puig OF 104
2014 Jose Abreu 1B 145 2014 Jacob DeGrom P 22
2014 Matt Shoemaker P 27 2014 Billy Hamilton OF 152
2015 Carlos Correa† SS 99 2015 Kris Bryant IF/OF 151
2015 Francisco Lindor† SS 99 2015 Matt Duffy IF 149
2016 Michael Fulmer P 26 2016 Corey Seager SS 157
2016 Gary Sanchez† C 53 2016 Trea Turner† SS 73
2017 Aaron Judge OF 155 2017 Cody Bellinger IF/OF 132
2017 Andrew Benintendi OF 151 2017 Paul DeJong SS 108
2018 Shohei Ohtani OF/DH/P 104 2018 Ronald Acuna Jr. OF 111
2018 Miguel Andujar 3B 149 2018 Juan Soto OF 116
2019 Yordan Alvarez OF 87 2019 Pete Alonso 1B 161
2019 John Means P 31 2019 Mike Soroka P 29
2020 Kyle Lewis OF 58 2020 Devin Williams P 22
2020 Luis Robert OF 56 2020 Alec Bohm 3B 44
2021 Randy Arozarena OF 141 2021 Jonathan India IF 150
2021 Luis Garcia P 30 2021 Trevor Rogers P 25
Accrued 65% or less in one year of service time†
McLaughlin 31
Pre-Arbitration Bonus Pool
The mission to take care of younger players is something the union made clear was one
of their largest missions in the new agreement. The league agreed to a pre-arbitration bonus
pool of $50 million to pay younger players and reward them for playing at a high level before
their arbitration eligible seasons.
For winning the MVP or Cy Young, the player will be awarded $2.5 million. Second and
third place will earn $1.75 million and $1.5 million. Fourth and fifth place will each earn
$500,000. Rookie of the Year and the runner-up for the Rookie of the Year will earn $750,000
and $500,000 (Stephen, 2022). The remaining amount goes to the top 100 performers that are
eligible to be a part of the pool. The top 100 performers amongst the eligible pool will be
determined by a formula like WAR (Wins Above Replacement). WAR tells how many wins a
player contributes compared to a replacement player. Based off these numbers, last year’s
Rookie of the Year winners’ Jonathan India (National League Rookie of the Year) and Randy
Arozarena (American League Rookie of the Year) would have tripled their salary under this
system. The new agreement has provided an incentivize for younger players to play for awards,
which can help their team win games with better statistical performances.
Expanded Playoffs
Since 2012, the MLB has used a three round playoff system (in each league) with there
being a one game play-in matchup between two wild card teams. Each league had five teams
that make the postseason: three division winners and two wild card teams. Starting in 2022, the
league will be adding another wild card team, which results in another round of games. This
means more baseball, and more revenue for the league. While negotiating the terms and
McLaughlin 32
possibility of whether to expand the playoff, there were individuals that voiced concern to the
quality of teams that make the playoffs due an expansion. People were concerned about the
number of teams under a .500 winning percentage that would make the playoffs.
The tables labeled American League Playoff Standings and National League Playoff
Standings explored how many teams would make the playoffs from the years 2016-2021 had
the 2022 expanded playoff format been in place. Teams in that time period typically were at
least 6 games or so over .500. Included were the teams that would then be considered the first
team out. Based off the previous playoff format, the sixth listed team would have been the first
team out. Eleven of the twelve teams that would make the playoffs under the new playoff
format would have been over .500. The only team that would have made the playoffs under
.500 were the Kansas City Royals in 2017. The “first team(s) out” with winning percentage of
under .500 are highlighted in red; there would have been only three teams out of those twelve
to finish under that mark (25% of the expanded variation for first team out). Records came from
the MLB’s records.
The idea that the expanded playoffs will be polluted by teams that are deemed
unworthy of a playoff spot is a bit far-fetched. The second wild card team’s win percentage in
the time frame was .5424. In a 162-game season that averages out to be 87.87 wins. The third
wild card, previously the first team out, under the new expansion had an average win
percentage of 0.5275. That averages out to be 85.45 wins per season.
McLaughlin 33
American League Playoff Standings
2016
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Texas Rangers Division Winner 95 67 58.64%
Cleveland Indians Division Winner 94 67 58.39%
Boston Red Sox Division Winner 93 69 57.41%
Baltimore Orioles Wild Card 89 73 54.94%
Toronto Blue Jays Wild Card 89 73 54.94%
Detroit Tigers Wild Card 86 75 53.42%
Seattle Mariners First Team Out 86 76 53.09%
2017
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Cleveland Indians Division Winner 102 60 62.96%
Houston Astros Division Winner 101 61 62.35%
Boston Red Sox Division Winner 93 69 57.41%
New York Yankees Wild Card 91 71 56.17%
Minnesota Twins Wild Card 85 77 52.47%
Kansas City Royals Wild Card 80 82 49.38%
Los Angeles Angels First Team Out 80 82 49.38%
2018
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Boston Red Sox Division Winner 108 54 66.67%
Houston Astros Division Winner 103 59 63.58%
Cleveland Indians Division Winner 91 71 56.17%
New York Yankees Wild Card 100 62 61.73%
Oakland A's Wild Card 97 65 59.88%
Tampa Bay Rays Wild Card 90 72 55.56%
Seattle Mariners First Team Out 89 73 54.94%
2019
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Houston Astros Division Winner 107 55 66.05%
New York Yankees Division Winner 103 59 63.58%
Minnesota Twins Division Winner 101 61 62.35%
Oakland A's Wild Card 97 65 59.88%
Tampa Bay Rays Wild Card 96 66 59.26%
Cleveland Indians Wild Card 93 69 57.41%
Boston Red Sox First Team Out 84 78 51.85%
2020
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Tampa Bay Rays Division Winner 40 20 66.67%
Minnesota Twins Division Winner 36 24 60.00%
Oakland A's Division Winner 36 24 60.00%
Cleveland Indians Wild Card 35 25 58.33%
Chicago White Sox Wild Card 35 25 58.33%
New York Yankees Wild Card 33 27 55.00%
Toronto Blue Jays First Team Out 32 28 53.33%
2021
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Tampa Bay Rays Division Winner 100 62 61.73%
Houston Astros Division Winner 95 67 58.64%
Chicago White Sox Division Winner 93 69 57.41%
Boston Red Sox Wild Card 92 70 56.79%
New York Yankees Wild Card 92 70 56.79%
Toronto Blue Jays Wild Card 91 71 56.17%
Seattle Mariners First Team Out 90 72 55.56%
New Wild Card Under CBA
New Playoff Team and Under .500
First Team Out and Under.500
McLaughlin 34
National League Playoff Standings
2016
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Chicago Cubs Division Winner 103 58 63.98%
Washington Nationals Division Winner 95 67 58.64%
Los Angeles Dodgers Division Winner 91 71 56.17%
New York Mets Wild Card 87 75 53.70%
San Francisco Giants Wild Card 87 75 53.70%
St. Louis Cardinals Wild Card 86 76 53.09%
Miami Marlins First Team Out 79 82 49.07%
2017
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Los Angeles Dodgers Division Winner 104 58 64.20%
Washington Nationals Division Winner 97 65 59.88%
Chicago Cubs Division Winner 92 70 56.79%
Arizona Diamondbacks Wild Card 93 69 57.41%
Colorado Rockies Wild Card 87 75 53.70%
Milwaukee Brewers Wild Card 86 76 53.09%
Miami Marlins First Team Out 77 85 47.53%
2018
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Milwaukee Brewers Division Winner 96 67 58.90%
Los Angeles Dodgers Division Winner 92 71 56.44%
Atlanta Braves Division Winner 90 72 55.56%
Chicago Cubs Wild Card 95 68 58.28%
Colorado Rockies Wild Card 91 72 55.83%
St. Louis Cardinals Wild Card 88 74 54.32%
Pittsburgh Pirates First Team Out 82 79 50.93%
2019
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Los Angeles Dodgers Division Winner 106 56 65.43%
Atlanta Braves Division Winner 97 65 59.88%
St. Louis Cardinals Division Winner 91 71 56.17%
Washington Nationals Wild Card 93 69 57.41%
Milwaukee Brewers Wild Card 89 73 54.94%
New York Mets Wild Card 86 76 53.09%
Arizona Diamondbacks First Team Out 85 77 52.47%
2020
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
Los Angeles Dodgers Division Winner 43 17 71.67%
Atlanta Braves Division Winner 35 25 58.33%
Chicago Cubs Division Winner 34 26 56.67%
San Diego Padres Wild Card 37 23 61.67%
St. Louis Cardinals Wild Card 30 28 51.72%
Miami Marlins Wild Card 31 29 51.67%
Cincinnati Reds First Team Out 31 29 51.67%
2021
Team Status Wins Losses Win Percentage
San Francisco Giants Division Winner 107 55 66.05%
Milwaukee Brewers Division Winner 95 67 58.64%
Atlanta Braves Division Winner 88 73 54.66%
Los Angeles Dodgers Wild Card 106 56 65.43%
St. Louis Cardinals Wild Card 90 72 55.56%
Cincinnati Reds Wild Card 83 79 51.23%
Philadelphia Phillies First Team Out 82 80 50.62%
New Wild Card Under CBA
New Playoff Team and Under .500
First Team Out and Under.500
McLaughlin 35
Rule Changes
The labor agreement brought changes to the game that allows the league to implement
rules with a 45-day notice compared to the one year notice the league previously had to give.
This year, the change the league brought was the change to bring a universal designated hitter.
The American League had adopted the usage of a designated hitter in 1973, and since then only
the American League had used it. The National League did not have a designated hitter except
in games against American League teams at the American League teams’ home ballpark. Now
each league has the designated hitter across all games. This will lead to more exciting hitter and
pitcher matchups now that pitchers do not have to hit for themselves.
The other rule change on the field that was brought to the game is the size of the bases,
which is being test in minor league baseball. The bases have increased in size to 18 square
inches from 15 square inches. The league is testing this to prevent injuries. Other rule changes
that are on the horizon for the game potentially are robot umpires, bans on the shift and a
pitch clock. The Major League Baseball Commissioner, Rob Manfred, stated in Spring Training
that adding a pitch clock is a priority for Major League Baseball. The league has been
attempting to find ways to speed up the time of games, so I investigated how implementing a
pitch clock would impact the overall speed of the game.
Since 2005, the length of a Major League Baseball game has gradually increased to over
three hours on length as seen below. In 2005, games were just over two hours and forty-five
McLaughlin 36
minutes. There are plenty of individuals who differ on how or if the league should do anything
to reduce the amount of game time. Purists point to the fact that baseball has never been a
game that is controlled by time, so that makes the game unique. Some do not watch games due
to the exact opposite, which is that it is a long game under no time constraint. To shorten
games, people have been pointing out how long it takes pitchers to pitch the ball. Some say this
is the root to the problem.
150
155
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
195
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Minutes
Year
MLB Minutes per Game
20
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Seconds
Year
Average Pace Between Pitches (Seconds)
McLaughlin 37
From the years 2007 through 2011, the average pace in between pitches was 21.5
seconds. In between 2012 and 2017 there was up and down movement, but the highest pace in
between pitches hit in that time frame was in 2017 at nearly 24 seconds. To reduce this
increase of time in between pitches, the league wants to install a pitch clock. This pitch clock
that is being tested out in the minor leagues is a timer that gives the pitcher 19 seconds to pitch
when a runner is on base, and 14 seconds when the bases are empty. To see how these pitch
clocks would impact the time of plate appearances (appearance where a batter comes up to at
bat), the average amount of time between pitches was taken away from the average amount of
pitches per plate appearance multiplied by either 14 seconds or 19 seconds. Since there are
several different times a runner can be on base, the amount of time per plate appearance was
used to see the impact in that given scenario.
In the tables below, the abbreviation “PA” stands for plate appearance and “G” stands
game. Data was combined with information from Baseball Reference and Bleacher Report.
Zachary Rymer reported the average time each year a pitcher took from 2007-2017, which was
multiplied by average pitches per plate appearance to calculate the time per plate appearance.
The table labeled Bases Empty – 14 Seconds shows the trend of increased time in plate
appearances, but it highlights in the final column that per plate appearance while the bases are
empty that around 30 seconds to 40 seconds would be saved with a clock. Since every half
inning starts with no runners on base, it can be assumed that roughly eight to eleven minutes
would have been saved at the beginning of each half inning in the years 2007 through 2017
with the rumored pitch clock for 2023. Seventeen half-innings were assumed in that math since
McLaughlin 38
that is what is guaranteed, while is known that there can be eighteen half innings if the home
team still needs to hit in the bottom half of the ninth inning. Extra innings are a possibility as
well, but seventeen half innings are guaranteed unless a rain delay occurs.
BASES EMPTY - 14 Seconds
Year Acutal Seconds per PA PA per G Pitches per PA New Time with Clock per PA Seconds per PA Time Saved per PA
2007 81.055 77.6 3.77 0.880 52.78 28.275
2008 82.296 77.3 3.81 0.889 53.34 28.956
2009 81.962 77 3.83 0.894 53.62 28.342
2010 82.345 76.3 3.83 0.894 53.62 28.725
2011 82.512 76.3 3.82 0.891 53.48 29.032
2012 84.643 75.8 3.83 0.894 53.62 31.023
2013 86.784 76 3.84 0.896 53.76 33.024
2014 88.09 75.7 3.83 0.894 53.62 34.47
2015 84.643 75.6 3.83 0.894 53.62 31.023
2016 88.076 76 3.88 0.905 54.32 33.756
2017 92.582 76.2 3.89 0.908 54.46 38.122
RUNNER ON BASE - 19 Seconds
Year Acutal Seconds per PA PA per Game Pitches per PA New Time with Clock per PA Seconds per PA Time Saved per PA
2007 81.055 77.6 3.77 1.194 71.63 9.425
2008 82.296 77.3 3.81 1.207 72.39 9.906
2009 81.962 77 3.83 1.213 72.77 9.192
2010 82.345 76.3 3.83 1.213 72.77 9.575
2011 82.512 76.3 3.82 1.210 72.58 9.932
2012 84.643 75.8 3.83 1.213 72.77 11.873
2013 86.784 76 3.84 1.216 72.96 13.824
2014 88.09 75.7 3.83 1.213 72.77 15.32
2015 84.643 75.6 3.83 1.213 72.77 11.873
2016 88.076 76 3.88 1.229 73.72 14.356
2017 92.582 76.2 3.89 1.232 73.91 18.672
McLaughlin 39
The table labeled Runner on Base – 19 Seconds indicates the time saved while runners
were on base per plate appearance in the same time frame as the table prior. The time saved
does not change much per plate appearance from the earlier years in the table, but the time
nearly doubles from 2007 to 2017.
Conclusion
The CBA negotiations added plenty of new changes to the league going forward. The
union and league came to agreement on several ideas so they could have a full season in 2022.
The agreement runs through the 2026 season. The decisions made set up the future of the
game but will have impacts on multiple parties that can not be ignored.
The league and its team owners maintain their earnings for a full season. The league
gains $930,000 from ticket revenue and over $4,250,000 in overall revenue per game (based off
2019 earnings). Had the league lost 10% of their games, they would have lost $226,000,000 in
ticket revenue and $1,037,000,070 in total revenue (based off 2019 earnings). The league is
now able to instill new rules into the game with a 45-day notice to the MLBPA.
The MLBPA accomplished goals that will help younger players, while giving some help to
veterans as well. There was an increase in minimum salary of 22.7% from 2021 to 2022. A $50
million bonus pool has been created to distribute amongst pre-arbitration eligible players,
where they can also earn a year of service team depending on if certain incentives are met. The
players were also able to negotiate incentives for management and owners to bring up young
prospects and not manipulate service time. This is a huge step in helping younger players get to
free agency at a younger age. For veterans, the increased luxury tax means free agent players
can negotiate for higher salaries since the CBT has increased.
McLaughlin 40
Perhaps the largest impact on fans is that no games were lost. The expanded playoff
gives more games to be played. Fans crave October baseball, so adding another series of play is
an element that intrigues viewers. Since the league wants to add rule changes over the next
couple of seasons, this will keep fans on their toes as the game could see changes that could
revolutionize the game.
McLaughlin 41
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