Market Feasibility Analysis
Farmington Hills III Apartments
Winder, Barrow County, Georgia
Prepared for:
TBG Residential
Effective Date: July 14, 2020
Site Inspection: July 14, 2020
Farmington Hills III | Table of Contents
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................... 1
2. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 8
A. Overview of Subject..............................................................................................................................................8
B. Purpose of Report.................................................................................................................................................8
C. Format of Report ..................................................................................................................................................8
D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use .............................................................................................................8
E. Applicable Requirements......................................................................................................................................8
F. Scope of Work ......................................................................................................................................................8
G. Report Limitations ................................................................................................................................................9
3. PROJECT DESCRIPTION.................................................................................................. 10
A. Project Overview ................................................................................................................................................10
B. Project Type and Target Market .........................................................................................................................10
C. Building Types and Placement............................................................................................................................10
D. Detailed Project Description...............................................................................................................................11
1. Project Description.....................................................................................................................................11
2. Other Proposed Uses .................................................................................................................................12
3. Proposed Timing of Development .............................................................................................................12
4. SITE EVALUATION ......................................................................................................... 13
A. Site Analysis ........................................................................................................................................................13
1. Site Location...............................................................................................................................................13
2. Existing and Proposed Uses .......................................................................................................................14
3. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ...............................................................15
4. Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site ....................................................................................................16
B. Neighborhood Analysis.......................................................................................................................................17
1. General Description of Neighborhood .......................................................................................................17
2. Neighborhood Planning Activities..............................................................................................................17
3. Public Safety...............................................................................................................................................17
C. Site Visibility and Accessibility ............................................................................................................................18
1. Visibility......................................................................................................................................................18
2. Vehicular Access.........................................................................................................................................18
3. Availability of Public Transit .......................................................................................................................19
4. Availability of Inter-Regional Transit..........................................................................................................19
5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned ..................................................................19
6. Environmental Concerns ............................................................................................................................19
D. Residential Support Network..............................................................................................................................19
1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site........................................................................................19
2. Essential Services .......................................................................................................................................20
3. Commercial Goods and Services ................................................................................................................21
4. Location of Low Income Housing ...............................................................................................................22
E. Site Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................................22
5. MARKET AREA .............................................................................................................. 23
A. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................23
B. Delineation of Market Area ................................................................................................................................23
6. COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC DATA.............................................................................. 25
A. Introduction and Methodology ..........................................................................................................................25
B. Trends in Population and Households................................................................................................................25
1. Recent Past Trends.....................................................................................................................................25
2. Projected Trends ........................................................................................................................................25
3. Building Permit Trends...............................................................................................................................25
C. Demographic Characteristics..............................................................................................................................27
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1. Age Distribution and Household Type .......................................................................................................27
2. Household Trends by Tenure .....................................................................................................................28
3. Renter Household Characteristics..............................................................................................................29
4. Income Characteristics ...............................................................................................................................30
7. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ................................................................................................. 33
A. Introduction........................................................................................................................................................33
B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment..................................................................................33
1. Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment.........................................................................33
2. Trends in County Unemployment Rate......................................................................................................33
C. Commutation Patterns .......................................................................................................................................33
D. At-Place Employment .........................................................................................................................................35
1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment........................................................................................................35
2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector...................................................................................................36
3. Major Employers ........................................................................................................................................37
4. Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions ........................................................................................38
E. Conclusions on Local Economics.........................................................................................................................38
8. PROJECT-SPECIFIC AFFORDABILITY & DEMAND ANALYSIS ............................................. 39
A. Affordability Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................39
1. Methodology..............................................................................................................................................39
2. Affordability Analysis .................................................................................................................................40
3. Conclusions of Affordability .......................................................................................................................42
B. Demand Estimates and Capture Rates ...............................................................................................................42
1. Methodology..............................................................................................................................................42
2. Demand Analysis........................................................................................................................................42
3. DCA Demand Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................43
9. COMPETITIVE RENTAL ANALYSIS................................................................................... 44
A. Introduction and Sources of Information ...........................................................................................................44
B. Overview of Market Area Housing Stock............................................................................................................44
C. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities ...........................................................................................46
1. Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey................................................................................................46
2. Location......................................................................................................................................................46
3. Size of Communities...................................................................................................................................47
4. Age of Communities...................................................................................................................................47
5. Structure Type............................................................................................................................................47
6. Vacancy Rates ............................................................................................................................................47
7. Rent Concessions .......................................................................................................................................47
8. Absorption History .....................................................................................................................................48
D. Analysis of Product Offerings .............................................................................................................................48
1. Payment of Utility Costs.............................................................................................................................48
2. Unit Features..............................................................................................................................................48
3. Community Amenities................................................................................................................................48
4. Unit Distribution.........................................................................................................................................49
5. Effective Rents ...........................................................................................................................................49
6. Scattered Site Rentals ................................................................................................................................50
7. DCA Average Market Rent .........................................................................................................................51
E. Multi-Family Pipeline..........................................................................................................................................52
F. Housing Authority Data ......................................................................................................................................52
G. Existing Low Income Rental Housing ..................................................................................................................53
H. Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes ........................................................................................54
10. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................... 55
A. Key Findings ........................................................................................................................................................55
1. Site and Neighborhood Analysis ................................................................................................................55
2. Economic Context ......................................................................................................................................55
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3. Population and Household Trends.............................................................................................................56
4. Demographic Analysis................................................................................................................................56
5. Competitive Housing Analysis....................................................................................................................56
B. Product Evaluation .............................................................................................................................................57
C. Price Position ......................................................................................................................................................58
11. ABSORPTION AND STABILIZATION RATES .................................................................. 61
A. Absorption Estimate ...........................................................................................................................................61
B. Impact on Existing and Pipeline Rental Market..................................................................................................61
12. INTERVIEWS.............................................................................................................. 62
13. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................. 63
14. APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS ..................... 64
15. APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ..................................................................... 66
16. APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION ......................................................................... 67
17. APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES ............................................................................... 68
18. APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST ..................................................................................... 71
19. APPENDIX 6 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES ............................................................. 76
TABLES, FIGURES AND MAPS
Table 1 Detailed Unit Mix and Rents, Farmington Hills III ..........................................................................................11
Table 2 Unit Features and Community Amenities ......................................................................................................11
Table 3 Key Facilities and Services..............................................................................................................................20
Table 4 Population and Household Projections..........................................................................................................26
Table 5 Persons per Household, Farmington Hills Market Area.................................................................................26
Table 6 Building Permits by Structure Type, Bi-County Market Area.........................................................................27
Table 7 Age Distribution .............................................................................................................................................27
Table 8 Households by Household Type......................................................................................................................28
Table 9 Households by Tenure, 2000-2020 .................................................................................................................29
Table 10 Households by Tenure, 2020-2022 ...............................................................................................................29
Table 11 Renter Households by Age of Householder ................................................................................................30
Table 12 Renter Households by Household Size .........................................................................................................30
Table 13 Household Income ........................................................................................................................................31
Table 14 Household Income by Tenure, Farmington Hills Market Area......................................................................31
Table 15 Rent Burdened and Substandard Housing, Farmington Hills Market Area...................................................32
Table 16 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates........................................................................................................34
Table 17 Commutation Data, Farmington Hills Market Area ......................................................................................34
Table 18 Major Employers, Barrow County................................................................................................................37
Table 19 Total and Renter Income Distribution, Farmington Hills Market Area ........................................................39
Table 20 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA HUD Metro FMR Area ......................40
Table 21 Affordability Analysis, Farmington Hills III ...................................................................................................41
Table 22 Overall Demand Estimates, Farmington Hills III..........................................................................................43
Table 23 Demand Estimates by Floor Plan, Farmington Hills III ................................................................................43
Table 24 Dwelling Units by Structure and Tenure ......................................................................................................45
Table 25 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure......................................................................................................45
Table 26 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock......................................................................................................45
Table 27 Rental Summary, Surveyed Communities.....................................................................................................47
Table 28 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features.......................................................................................................48
Table 29 Community Amenities ..................................................................................................................................49
Table 30 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing................................................................................................................50
Table 31 Scattered Site Rentals, Farmington Hills Market Area..................................................................................51
Table 32 Average Rents ...............................................................................................................................................51
Table 33 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary .................................................................................52
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Table 34 Affordable Communities, Farmington Hills Market Area.............................................................................53
Table 35 Foreclosure Rate, ZIP Code 30680, May 2020 .............................................................................................54
Table 36 Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30680...............................................................................................54
Figure 1 Site Plan .........................................................................................................................................................10
Figure 2 Views of Subject Site......................................................................................................................................14
Figure 3 Satellite Image of Subject Site .......................................................................................................................15
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses ...................................................................................................................16
Figure 5 Farmington Hills Market Area Households by Tenure 2000 to 2020...........................................................28
Figure 6 At-Place Employment, Barrow County .........................................................................................................35
Figure 7 Total Employment by Sector.........................................................................................................................36
Figure 8 Employment Change by Sector, 2011-2019..................................................................................................37
Figure 9 Price Position .................................................................................................................................................59
Map 1 Site Location ....................................................................................................................................................13
Map 2 Crime Index Map .............................................................................................................................................18
Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services ............................................................................................................21
Map 4 Farmington Hills Market Area .........................................................................................................................24
Map 5 Major Employers, Barrow County ....................................................................................................................38
Map 6 Surveyed Rental Communities ........................................................................................................................46
Map 7 Affordable Rental Communities ......................................................................................................................53
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
TBG Residential has retained Real Property Research Group, Inc. (RPRG) to conduct a comprehensive
market feasibility analysis of Farmington Hills III, the third phase of an affordable multi-family rental
community in Winder, Barrow County, Georgia. Farmington Hills III will be newly constructed and
financed in part with four percent Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) allocated by the Georgia
Department of Community Affairs (DCA). Farmington Hills III will offer 180 LIHTC rental units targeting
households earning up to 40 percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI),
adjusted for household size.
1. Project Description
The subject site is on the north side of Haymon Morris Road, northeast of the second phase
of Farmington Hills, roughly six miles southwest of downtown Winder, Barrow County,
Georgia. . Farmington Hills III will offer 180 newly constructed general occupancy LIHTC rental
units targeting households earning up to 40 percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent of the Area
Median Income (AMI). The first two phases of Farmington Hills combine for 144 units and
were built in 2012-2014. The community is fully occupied with a waiting list of 8+ months.
Farmington Hills III will target very low to moderate income renter households with a unit mix
of 54 one-bedroom units (30 percent), 90 two-bedroom units (50 percent), and 36 three-
bedroom units (20 percent). Farmington Hills III’s one and two-bedroom units will primarily
target singles, couples (both young professionals and empty nesters), and roommates while
the three-bedroom units will primarily target larger households including those with children.
A detailed summary of the newly constructed subject property, including the rent and unit
configuration, is shown in the table below. Although Farmington Hills III will accept Housing
Choice Vouchers (HCV), it does not have project based rental assistance.
Farmington Hills III will offer a dishwasher, range/oven, refrigerator, microwave, ceiling fans,
and washer and dryer connections which is comparable to the surveyed LIHTC communities
including The Exchange which offers both LIHTC and market rate units. The subject property’s
Unit Mix/Rents
Type Bed Bath
Income
Target
#
Heated Sq.
Feet
Net
Rent
Utility
Allowance
Gross
Rent
LIHTC 1 1 40% 18 800 $515 $105 $620
LIHTC 1 1 60% 18 800 $820 $105 $925
LIHTC 1 1 80% 18 800 $969 $105 $1,074
Subtotal 54 30.0%
LIHTC 2 2 40% 30 1,000 $616 $129 $745
LIHTC 2 2 60% 30 1,000 $987 $129 $1,116
LIHTC 2 2 80% 30 1,000 $1,104 $129 $1,233
Subtotal 90 50.0%
LIHTC 3 2 40% 12 1,200 $697 $163 $860
LIHTC 3 2 60% 12 1,200 $1,122 $163 $1,285
LIHTC 3 2 80% 12 1,200 $1,387 $163 $1,550
Subtotal 36 20.0%
Total 57.8% 180
Rents include: trash removal Source: TBG Residential
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
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unit features will be superior to most of the market rate communities given only one of five
of these communities offer a microwave. The proposed unit features will be competitive in
the market among both LIHTC and market rate communities.
Farmington Hills III will offer a clubhouse/community room, fitness center, swimming pool,
playground, business/computer center, and laundry facilities which is comparable to the
existing LIHTC communities in the market area including The Exchange which offers the
highest-priced market rate units in the market area. The proposed amenities are far superior
to those at the older market rate communities, most of which offer no amenities. The
subject’s amenities will be competitive with the LIHTC communities and will result in a
competitive advantage compared to existing market rate communities in the market area.
2. Site Description / Evaluation
The subject site is a suitable location for affordable rental housing as it is compatible with surrounding
land uses and has access to amenities, services, employers, and transportation arteries.
The subject site is generally flat and is primarily cleared with wooded land along the perimeter
of the site; a single-family home is in the northern portion of the site and will be moved prior
to development.
The subject site is on the north side of Haymon Morris Road, adjacent to the second phase of
Farmington Hills. Surrounding land uses are compatible with affordable rental housing
including primarily well-maintained single-family detached homes and the first two phases of
the subject property. The subject’s designated schools are grouped within one mile to the
west of the site and a concentration of commercial uses including Barrow Crossing (shopping
destination) are within one mile to the east.
The overall Farmington Hills development has visibility from Haymon Morris Road. The first
two phases of the subject property are fully occupied indicating sufficient visibility. The site
is within one-half mile of State Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29 which connects the site to the
region including Athens to the east and the Atlanta Metro Area to the west. State Highway
81 is just east of the site and provides access to downtown Winder roughly five miles to the
north while Interstate 85 is within 15 miles north of the site and Interstate 20 is roughly 28
miles to the south.
The positive aspects of the site are proximity to traffic arteries, neighborhood services, and
convenient access to employment; RPRG did not identify any negative attributes.
Neighborhood amenities are convenient to the site including shopping, a convenience store,
a grocery store, a pharmacy, and schools within one mile while medical facilities and
additional shopping opportunities are within 2.5 miles. Barrow Crossing offers retailers
including Target, TJ Maxx, PetSmart, and Belk within one mile.
The subject site’s CrimeRisk is above the national average (100). This crime risk is comparable
to the crime risk of nearly all surveyed comparable communities in the market area.
Furthermore, the first two phases of the subject property are fully occupied with a waiting
list. Based on this data and field observations, we do not expect crime or the perception of
crime to negatively impact the subject property’s marketability.
The subject site is suitable for the proposed development. RPRG did not identify any negative
land uses that would affect the proposed development’s viability in the marketplace.
3. Market Area Definition
The Farmington Hills Market Area consists of census tracts in central Barrow County (including
all or portions of Winder, Bethlehem, and Auburn) and one tract in eastern Gwinnett County
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
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(including a portion of Dacula). The Farmington Hills Market Area focuses on the portions of
Barrow and Gwinnett Counties that are most comparable to the immediate area surrounding
the subject site and is focused on the State Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29 corridor. State
Highway 316 roughly bisects the market area from east to west while State Highway 11
connects the site to Winder to the north and several other state highways provide additional
connectivity. The Farmington Hills Market Area includes the most comparable multi-family
rental communities and residents of these areas would likely consider the subject site as an
acceptable shelter location. Residents along the State Highway 316 corridor would likely
consider the subject site for rental housing given convenient access to employment in the
region. The market area is bound to north and south by county lines and does not extend
further east due to distance. The tract in Gwinnett County is included due to convenient
access via State Highway 316.
The boundaries of the Farmington Hills Market Area and their approximate distance from the
subject site are Jackson County to the north (8.0 mile), Bowman Mill Road SE / Hog Mountain
Road to the east (7.0 miles), Walton County to the south (3.6 miles), and Alcovy River to the
west (9.1 miles).
4. Community Demographic Data
The Farmington Hills Market Area grew significantly from 2000 to 2010; growth slowed but
remained strong from 2010 to 2020. Growth is expected to remain strong over the next two
years.
The Farmington Hills Market Area added 21,967 net people (52.5 percent) and 6,757
households (45.8 percent) from 2000 to 2010; annual growth was 2,197 people (4.3 percent)
and 676 households (3.8 percent) over this period. Annual growth over the past 10 years was
1,718 people (2.4 percent) and 556 households (2.3 percent), reaching 80,988 people and
27,055 households in 2020.
Annual growth in the Farmington Hills Market Area is expected to remain strong from 2020
to 2022 at 1,736 people (2.1 percent) and 567 households (2.1 percent).
The median age of the Farmington Hills Market Area’s population is 35 years with Adults ages
35 to 61 representing the largest population age cohort in the market area at 35.6 percent
while 29.0 percent of the population are Children/Youth under 20 years old. Young Adults
ages 20 to 34 comprise 20.3 percent of the Farmington Hills Market Area’s population while
Seniors ages 62 and older account for 15.1 percent.
Approximately 82 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area households were multi-person
households including 45.0 percent of households with children. Single-person households
accounted for 17.9 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area households.
Roughly 23 percent of households in the Farmington Hills Market Area rent in 2020 compared
to 27.4 percent in the Bi-County Market Area. The market area added 2,878 net renter
households over the past 20 years accounting for 23.4 percent of net household growth. Esri
projects renter households to account for 19.0 percent of net household growth over the next
two years with the net addition of 215 renter households.
The Farmington Hills Market Area includes a range or renter households by size with 46.0
percent having one or two people, 34.9 percent having three or four people, and 19.0 percent
having five people.
The 2020 median household income in the Farmington Hills Market Area is $66,718 which is
similar to the $67,083 median in the Bi-County Market Area. RPRG estimates that the median
income of renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area is $47,083. One-third of
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
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renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area earn less than $35,000 including 22.7
percent earning less than $25,000 while 37.2 percent earn moderate incomes of $35,000 to
$74,999.
Foreclosures and abandoned homes are not expected to impact the demand for the subject
property or its ability to achieve and maintain stabilized occupancy.
5. Economic Data
Barrow County’s economy is performing well with job growth in seven of the past eight years and a
decreasing unemployment rate that is lower than the state rate.
The county’s unemployment rate dropped in each of the past nine years to a low 2.8 percent
in 2019 which is below both state (3.4 percent) and national (3.7 percent) rates. Barrow
County’s unemployment rate has been below the state rate since 2011.
Barrow County added jobs in seven of the past eight years with the net addition of 5,486 jobs
since 2012, roughly 2.7 times the jobs lost during the recession-era (2008-2011), reaching an
all-time high At-Place Employment in 2019. The county added an annual average of 804 jobs
over the past three years.
Trade-Transportation-Utilities is the largest sector in the county by far accounting for 32.9
percent of jobs compared to 18.6 percent of jobs nationally. The Government,
Manufacturing, Education-Health, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors each account for roughly
10-15 percent of the county’s jobs.
Commuting data suggests that the residents of the Farmington Hills Market Area work
throughout the region with more than half of workers employed outside their county of
residence.
RPRG did not identify any major job expansions or contractions in Barrow County over the
past two years.
Barrow County’s economy is performing well with job growth in seven of the past eight years
and a decreasing unemployment rate that is below state and national levels. These factors
will continue to have a positive impact on housing demand in the county. Available economic
data do not reflect the impact of the ongoing and evolving COVID-19 related business
closures. The county has had significant job growth since the previous national economic
downturn in the late 2000’s.
6. Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:
Farmington Hills III will contain 180 LIHTC units reserved for households earning at or below
40 percent, 60 percent, or 80 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI).
The proposed units at 40 percent AMI will target renter householders earning from $21,257
to $35,760. The 60 proposed units at 40 percent AMI would need to capture 5.6 percent of
the 1,070 income-qualified renter households to lease-up.
The proposed units at 60 percent AMI will target renter householders earning from $31,714
to $53,640. The 60 proposed units at 60 percent AMI would need to capture 3.5 percent of
the 1,716 income-qualified renter households to lease-up.
The proposed units at 80 percent AMI will target renter householders earning from $36,823
to $71,520. The 60 proposed units at 80 percent AMI would need to capture 2.9 percent of
the 2,101 income-qualified renter households to lease-up.
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
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All affordability capture rates are acceptable indicating sufficient income-qualified
households will exist in the market area to support the proposed units at Farmington Hills III.
DCA demand capture rates for the subject property are 13.3 percent for the 40 percent AMI
units, 10.5 percent for the 60 percent AMI units, 6.8 percent for the 80 percent AMI units,
and the project’s overall capture rate is 14.7 percent. Farmington Hills III's capture rates by
floor plan within each income target range from 3.3 percent to 24.8 percent and the capture
rates by floor plan are 5.8 for all one-bedroom units, 13.5 percent for all two-bedroom units,
and 8.6 percent for all three-bedroom units.
All demand capture rates are well within acceptable levels indicating sufficient demand in the
market area to support the proposed subject property and the comparable pipeline DCA
community.
7. Competitive Rental Analysis
RPRG surveyed seven multi-family rental communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area including
two LIHTC communities. The rental market is performing well with limited vacancies including at LIHTC
communities.
The surveyed communities range in size from nine to 144 units and average 77 units. The
two LIHTC communities are the largest surveyed communities with 130 units (The
Exchange) and 144 units (Farmington Hills) while the market rate communities range from
nine to 102 units.
The surveyed communities have nine vacancies among 539 combined units for an
aggregate vacancy rate of 1.7 percent. Five of seven communities are fully occupied
including the first two phases of the subject property (Farmington Hills – LIHTC). The
remaining LIHTC community (The Exchange) has five vacancies among 130 units for a
vacancy rate of 3.8 percent.
The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC community) opened in January 2018 and leased all
130 units by August 2018 for an average monthly absorption of 18.6 units.
Among the surveyed communities, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were
as follows:
o One-bedroom effective rents average $751 per month. The average one-
bedroom unit size is 801 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of
$0.94.
o Two-bedroom effective rents average $845 per month. The average two-
bedroom unit size is 1,078 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of
$0.78.
o Three-bedroom effective rents average $1,056 per month. The average three-
bedroom unit size is 1,318 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of
$0.80.
Sixty percent AMI LIHTC rents at both LIHTC communities are among the existing market rate
rents in the market area and the market rate rents at The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC
community) are the highest rents in the market area by a wide margin.
The “average market rent” is $970 for one-bedroom units, $1,105 for two-bedroom units,
and $1,450 for three-bedroom units. The proposed 40 percent AMI rents have rent
advantages of at least 79 percent and the proposed 60 percent AMI rents have rent
advantages of at least 12.0 percent. All proposed 80 percent AMI rents are below average
market rents. The project’s overall weighted average rent advantage is 35.4 percent.
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
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One comparable general occupancy LIHTC community was identified as proposed (River’s
Edge) in the Farmington Hills Market Area. River’s Edge recently applied for four percent
tax credits for 156 units targeting households earning up to 60 percent AMI just inside the
market area in the Dacula area. This community will be directly comparable to the subject
property. One age restricted LIHTC community (Wimberly Manor) received an allocation
of nine percent tax credits for 73 units in Winder but this community will not be
comparable to the subject property given a difference in age targeting.
8. Absorption/Stabilization Estimate
Based on the product to be constructed and the factors discussed through the report, we
expect Farmington Hills III units to lease-up at a rate of 18 units per month. At this rate, the
subject property will reach a stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent within roughly nine
to 10 months.
Given the strong rental market in the Farmington Hills Market Area (including a waiting list at
the first phases of the subject property) and the projected renter household growth over the
next two years, we do not expect Farmington Hills III to have a negative impact on existing or
proposed rental communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area including those with tax
credits.
9. Overall Conclusion / Recommendation
Based on projected household growth trends, affordability and demand estimates, rental market
conditions, and socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the Farmington Hills Market Area,
RPRG believes that the subject property will be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized
occupancy of at least 93 percent following its entrance into the rental market; the first two phases of
the subject property are fully occupied with a waiting list. The subject property will be competitively
positioned with existing rental communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area and the units will be
well received by the target market.
This market study was completed based on the most recent available data, which does not reflect the
potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on demographic and economic trends as well as housing
demand. At this stage, we do not believe demand for affordable rental housing will be reduced in the
long term due to economic losses related to COVID-19. Demand for rental housing, especially
affordable housing, is projected to increase over the next several years.
We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.
DCA Summary Table:
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Large Household
Size Adjustment
(3+ Persons)
Adjusted
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Average
Market Rent
Market
Rents Band
Proposed
Rents
40% AMI $21,257 - $35,760
One Bedroom Units 18 6.6% 182 182 0 182 9.9% $970 $970 $515
Two Bedroom Units 30 4.4% 121 121 0 121 24.8% $1,105 $1,105 $616
Three Bedroom Units 12 6.7% 185 54.0% 100 0 100 12.0% $1,450 $1,450 $697
60% AMI $31,714 - $53,640
One Bedroom Units 18 9.8% 271 271 72 199 9.0% $970 $970 $820
Two Bedroom Units 30 8.8% 243 243 72 171 17.6% $1,105 $1,105 $987
Three Bedroom Units 12 10.5% 290 54.0% 157 12 145 8.3% $1,450 $1,450 $1,122
80% AMI $36,823 - $71,520
One Bedroom Units 18 20.0% 550 550 0 550 3.3% $970 $970 $969
Two Bedroom Units 30 16.9% 466 466 0 466 6.4% $1,105 $1,105 $1,104
Three Bedroom Units 12 12.1% 334 54.0% 180 0 180 6.7% $1,450 $1,450 $1,387
By Bedroom
One Bedroom Units 54 36.4% 1,003 1,003 72 931 5.8%
Two Bedroom Units 90 26.8% 738 738 72 666 13.5%
Three Bedroom Units 36 29.0% 800 54.0% 432 12 420 8.6%
Project Total $21,257 - $71,520
40% AMI $21,257 - $35,760 60 16.4% 452 0 452 13.3%
60% AMI $31,714 - $53,640 60 26.3% 725 156 569 10.5%
80% AMI $36,823 - $71,520 60 32.2% 887 0 887 6.8%
Total Units $21,257 - $71,520 180 50.1% 1,380 156 1,224 14.7%
Farmington Hills III | Executive Summary
Page 7
S
UMMARY
T
ABLE
:
Development Name:
Farmington Hills III
Apartments
Total # Units:
180
Location:
Haymon Morris Road
,
Winder
,
Barrow
County
, GA
#
LIHTC
Units:
180
PMA Boundary:
North: Jackson County, East: Bowman Mill Road SE / Hog Mountain Road, South: Walton
County
, W
est:
Alcovy River
Farthest Boundary Distance to
Subject:
9.1
miles
R
ENTAL
H
OUSING
S
TOCK
–
(found on pages 11, 47, 51-52)
Type # Properties Total Units Vacant Units Average
Occupancy
All Rental Housing
7
539
9
98.
3
%
Market
-
Rate Hous
ing
5
265
4
98.5
%
Assisted/Subsidized Housing not to
include LIHTC
LIHTC
2
274
5
9
8.2
%
Stabilized
Comps
7
5
39
9
98.3
%
Properties in construction & lease up
Subje
ct Development
Average
Market Rent
Highest Unadjusted
Comp Rent*
#
Units
#
Bedrooms
#
Baths
Size (SF)
Proposed
Tenant Rent
Per Unit Per SF Advantage Per Unit Per SF
18 1 1 800 $515 $970 $1.19 88.3% $970 $1.19
18
1
1
800
$
820
$
9
70
$
1
.
19
18.3
%
$
970
$
1
.
19
18
1
1
800
$
969
$
9
70
$
1
.
19
0.1
%
$
970
$
1.
19
30
2
2
1,000
$
616
$1,
105
$
1.00
79.4
%
$
1
,
105
$
1.
06
30 2 2 1,000 $987 $1,105 $1.00 12.0% $1,105 $1.06
30
2
2
1
,000
$
1,104
$1,
105
$
1.00
0.1
%
$
1,
105
$
1.
06
12
3
2
1,200
$
697
$1,
450
$
0.97
108.0
%
$
1,4
50
$
1.
09
1
2
3
2
1,200
$
1,122
$1,
450
$
0.97
29.2
%
$
1,4
50
$
1.
09
12
3
2
1,200
$
1,387
$1,
450
$
0.97
4.5
%
$
1,4
50
$
1.
09
NOTE: 70% or 80% unit designations are not allowed where 70% and 80% rents are at or above market rents.
C
APTURE
R
ATES
(
found
on
page
43
)
Targeted Population
4
0
%
AMI
60%
AMI
80% AMI
Ov
erall
Capture Rate
13.3% 10.5% 6.8% 14.7%
Farmington Hills III | Introduction
Page 8
2. INTRODUCTION
A. Overview of Subject
The subject of this report is Farmington Hills III, the third phase of an affordable multi-family rental
community in Winder, Barrow County, Georgia. Farmington Hills III will be newly constructed and
financed in part with four percent Low Income Housing Tax Credits (LIHTC) allocated by the Georgia
Department of Community Affairs (DCA). Farmington Hills III will offer 180 LIHTC rental units targeting
households earning up to 40 percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI),
adjusted for household size.
B. Purpose of Report
The purpose of this market study is to perform a market feasibility analysis through an examination
of the economic context, a demographic analysis of the defined market area, a competitive housing
analysis, a derivation of demand, and an affordability analysis.
C. Format of Report
The report format is comprehensive and conforms to DCA’s 2020 Market Study Manual. The market
study also considered the National Council of Housing Market Analysts’ (NCHMA) recommended
Model Content Standards and Market Study Index.
D. Client, Intended User, and Intended Use
The Client is TBG Residential (Developer). Along with the Client, the Intended Users are DCA, potential
lenders, and investors.
E. Applicable Requirements
This market study is intended to conform to the requirements of the following:
DCA’s 2020 Market Study Manual and Qualified Allocation Plan (QAP).
The National Council of Housing Market Analysts’ (NCHMA) Recommended Model Content.
F. Scope of Work
To determine the appropriate scope of work for the assignment, we considered the intended use of
the market study, the needs of the user, the complexity of the property, and other pertinent factors.
Our concluded scope of work is described below:
Please refer to Appendix 5 for a detailed list of DCA requirements as well as the corresponding
pages of requirements within the report.
Connor Hild (Research Associate) conducted a site visit on July 14, 2020. Tad Scepaniak
(Managing Partner) visited the site for a prior market study.
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the
various sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property
managers, Lydia Skeppstrom with the Winder Planning Department, Dan Shultz with the
Barrow County Planning and Community Development Department, Susan Owen with the
Gwinnett County Planning Department, Michelle Yawn with the Winder Housing Authority,
and staff with the City of Dacula.
Farmington Hills III | Introduction
Page 9
All pertinent information obtained was incorporated in the appropriate section(s) of this
report.
G. Report Limitations
The conclusions reached in a market assessment are inherently subjective and should not be relied
upon as a determinative predictor of results that will occur in the marketplace. There can be no
assurance that the estimates made or assumptions employed in preparing this report will in fact be
realized or that other methods or assumptions might not be appropriate. The conclusions expressed
in this report are as of the date of this report, and an analysis conducted as of another date may
require different conclusions. The actual results achieved will depend on a variety of factors, including
the performance of management, the impact of changes in general and local economic conditions,
and the absence of material changes in the regulatory or competitive environment. Reference is
made to the statement of Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions contained in Appendix I of
this report.
Farmington Hills III | Project Description
Page 10
3. PROJECT DESCRIPTION
A. Project Overview
Farmington Hills III will border the existing Farmington Hills apartment community to the north, just
south of U.S. Highway 29 (University Parkway) and roughly six miles southwest of downtown Winder,
Barrow County. The overall Farmington Hills apartment development is on the north side of Haymon
Morris Road within one-quarter mile west of Carl-Bethlehem Road. Farmington Hills III will offer 180
newly constructed general occupancy LIHTC rental units targeting households earning up to 40
percent, 60 percent, and 80 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI). The first two phases of
Farmington Hills combine for 144 units and were built in 2012-2014. The community is fully occupied
with a waiting list of 8+ months.
B. Project Type and Target Market
Farmington Hills III will target very low to moderate income renter households with a unit mix of 54
one-bedroom units (30 percent), 90 two-bedroom units (50 percent), and 36 three-bedroom units (20
percent). Farmington Hills III’s one and two-bedroom units will primarily target singles, couples (both
young professionals and empty nesters), and roommates while the three-bedroom units will primarily
target larger households including those with children.
C. Building Types and Placement
Farmington Hills III’s 180 rental units will be contained within 11 garden-style buildings with two or
three stories and a mixture of brick and HardiPlank siding exteriors (Figure 1). The community will be
accessible via the existing Farmington Hill entrance on Haymon Morris Road with an alternate
entrance to the east on the same road. The community access road will form a loop with the
residential buildings along the road and surface parking adjacent to each building; a smaller loop will
be in the northern portion of the site. Community amenities will be in the southern portion of the
site near the two entrances.
Figure 1 Site Plan
Source: TBG Residential
Farmington Hills III | Project Description
Page 11
D. Detailed Project Description
1. Project Description
Farmington Hills III will offer 54 one-bedroom units, 90 two-bedroom units, and 36 three-bedroom
units. Sixty units will target households earning up 40 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), 60
units will target 60 percent AMI, and 60 units will target 80 percent AMI (Table 1).
One-bedroom units will have one bathroom and 800 square feet.
Two-bedroom units will have two bathrooms and 1,000 square feet.
Three-bedroom units will have two bathrooms and 1,200 square feet.
The proposed rents will include the cost of trash removal. Tenants will bear the cost of all
other utilities.
Proposed unit features and community amenities are detailed in Table 2.
Table 1 Detailed Unit Mix and Rents, Farmington Hills III
Table 2 Unit Features and Community Amenities
Unit Features
Community Amenities
Kitchens with stove/oven, refrigerator,
dishwasher, and microwave.
Washer and dryer connections.
Ceiling fans.
Window blinds.
Central heating and air-conditioning.
Clubhouse/community room.
Fitness center.
Swimming pool.
Playground.
Picnic Pavilion.
Computer room.
Laundry facilities.
Unit Mix/Rents
Type Bed Bath
Income
Target
#
Heated Sq.
Feet
Net
Rent
Utility
Allowance
Gross
Rent
LIHTC 1 1 40% 18 800 $515 $105 $620
LIHTC 1 1 60% 18 800 $820 $105 $925
LIHTC 1 1 80% 18 800 $969 $105 $1,074
Subtotal 54 30.0%
LIHTC 2 2 40% 30 1,000 $616 $129 $745
LIHTC 2 2 60% 30 1,000 $987 $129 $1,116
LIHTC 2 2 80% 30 1,000 $1,104 $129 $1,233
Subtotal 90 50.0%
LIHTC 3 2 40% 12 1,200 $697 $163 $860
LIHTC 3 2 60% 12 1,200 $1,122 $163 $1,285
LIHTC 3 2 80% 12 1,200 $1,387 $163 $1,550
Subtotal 36 20.0%
Total 57.8% 180
Rents include: trash removal Source: TBG Residential
Farmington Hills III | Project Description
Page 12
2. Other Proposed Uses
None.
3. Proposed Timing of Development
Farmington Hills III is expected to begin construction in February 2021 with first move-ins and
construction completion in June 2022. The subject property’s anticipated placed-in-service year is
2022 for the purposes of this report.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 13
4. SITE EVALUATION
A. Site Analysis
1. Site Location
The subject site is on the north side of Haymon Morris Road, northeast of second phase of Farmington
Hills, roughly six miles southwest of downtown Winder, Barrow County (Map 1). The site is within
one-half mile south of State Highway 316 (University Highway) which is a major traffic artery in the
region.
Map 1 Site Location
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 14
2. Existing and Proposed Uses
The subject site is generally flat and is
primarily cleared with wooded land along
the perimeter of the site; a single-family
home is in the northern portion of the site
and will be moved prior to development
(Figure 2). Farmington Hills III will offer 180
general occupancy apartments.
Figure 2 Views of Subject Site
Site facing northeast from the current terminus of
Farmington Hills’s access road.
Site facing south.
Site facing northeast.
Site facing east.
Northern portion of the site facing west.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 15
3. General Description of Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site
The subject site is in a residential neighborhood just south of State Highway 316, a major traffic artery
in the region. Well-maintained single-family detached homes are to the south and west while the first
two phases of Farmington Hills Apartments border the site to the south and southwest (Figure 3).
Tracts of undeveloped land are common within one-half mile of the site especially to the north and
east. The Home Depot and several other commercial uses are within one-half mile southeast of the
site while Apalachee High School, Haymon-Morris Middle School, and Yargo Elementary School are
roughly one mile to the west. A small pocket of light industrial uses is north of State Highway 316
along Tucker Road.
Figure 3 Satellite Image of Subject Site
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 16
4. Land Uses Surrounding the Subject Site
Nearby land uses surrounding the subject
site include (Figure 4):
North: Single-family detached homes and
State Highway 316.
East: Undeveloped land and The Home
Depot.
South: Farmington Hills Phase II and single-
family detached homes.
West: Undeveloped land and single-family
detached homes.
Figure 4 Views of Surrounding Land Uses
Apalachee High School to the west.
Ashbrook neighborhood to the south.
The Home Depot to the east.
Haymon Estates neighborhood to the west.
Farmington Hills Apartments to the south.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 17
B. Neighborhood Analysis
1. General Description of Neighborhood
The site’s neighborhood is primarily residential with well-maintained single-family detached homes
the most common land use within several miles of the site. The two newest multi-family rental
communities in the region (Farmington Hills and The Exchange) are within three miles of the site with
the first two phases of Farmington Hills adjacent to the site. A concentration of commercial uses is
along the State Highway 316 corridor to the east including much of the newest development in the
area. Barrow Crossing which includes Publix, Belk, T.J. Maxx, Kirkland’s, Five Below, and many other
smaller retailers is roughly two miles east of the site on Carl-Bethlehem Road while much of the
newest development in the area (including The Exchange Apartments (LIHTC), medical facilities, a
hotel, and several restaurants) are on the north side of State Highway 316 along Exchange Boulevard
within three miles east of the site.
2. Neighborhood Planning Activities
RPRG did not identify significant planning or redevelopment efforts in the subject site’s immediate
area. Several new for-sale single-family detached home neighborhoods are under construction within
three miles of the site with homes generally priced in the $200,000’s.
3. Public Safety
CrimeRisk is a census tract level index that measures the relative risk of crime compared to a national
average. AGS analyzes known socio-economic indicators for local jurisdictions that report crime
statistics to the FBI under the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) program. An index of 100 reflects a total
crime risk on par with the national average, with values below 100 reflecting below average risk and
values above 100 reflecting above average risk. Based on detailed modeling of these relationships,
CrimeRisk provides a detailed view of the risk of total crime as well as specific crime types at the
census tract level. In accordance with the reporting procedures used in the UCR reports, aggregate
indexes have been prepared for personal and property crimes separately as well as a total
index. However, it must be recognized that these are un-weighted indexes, in that a murder is
weighted no more heavily than purse snatching in this computation. The analysis provides a useful
measure of the relative overall crime risk in an area but should be used in conjunction with other
measures.
The 2019 CrimeRisk Index for the census tracts in the general vicinity of the subject site are color
coded with the site’s census tract being green, indicating a crime risk (100 to 199) above the national
average (100) (Map 2). This crime risk is comparable to the crime risk of nearly all surveyed
comparable communities in the market area. Furthermore, the first two phases of the subject
property are fully occupied with a waiting list. Based on this data and field observations, we do not
expect crime or the perception of crime to negatively impact the subject property’s marketability.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 18
Map 2 Crime Index Map
C. Site Visibility and Accessibility
1. Visibility
The overall Farmington Hills development has visibility from Haymon Morris Road which has light to
moderate traffic. The first two phases of the subject property are fully occupied with a waiting list
illustrating sufficient visibility.
2. Vehicular Access
Farmington Hills III will share an entrance with the first two phases of the subject property to the
southwest on Haymon Morris Road with a secondary entrance in the southeast portion of the site.
Haymon Morris Road has light to moderate traffic with sufficient breaks in traffic; RPRG does not
anticipate problems with accessibility. Haymon Morris Road connects to Carl-Bethlehem Road one-
tenth mile to the east which provides access to State Highway 316 within one-half mile north of the
proposed entrance.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 19
3. Availability of Public Transit
Barrow County does not offer public transportation.
4. Availability of Inter-Regional Transit
From a regional perspective, the site is within one-half mile of State Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29
which connects to Athens roughly 25 miles to the east and Interstate 85 roughly 20 miles to the west.
Access to Interstate 85 is also within 13 miles north of the site via State Highway 211 while Interstate
20 is roughly 26 miles to the south via State Highway 11. Additional state and U.S. highways are within
five miles of the site and Interstate 285 is roughly 30 miles to the west. These major thoroughfares
connect the site to the region including Athens and the Atlanta Metro Area. Hartsfield-Jackson
International Airport is roughly 52 miles southwest of the subject site in Atlanta.
5. Accessibility Improvements under Construction and Planned
Roadway Improvements under Construction and Planned
RPRG reviewed information from local stakeholders to assess whether any capital improvement
projects affecting road, transit, or pedestrian access to the subject site are currently underway or
likely to commence within the next few years. Observations made during the site visit contributed to
the process. Improvements along State Route 316 are ongoing that will transition the highway into a
freeway-style corridor which is expected to improve traffic flow and reduce the number of accidents.
State Route 316/U.S. Highway 29 is roughly one-half mile north of the site. The improvements extend
from Gwinnett County to Oconee County and are expected to be completed by 2027
Transit and Other Improvements under Construction and/or Planned
None.
6. Environmental Concerns
RPRG did not identify any visible environmental site concerns.
D. Residential Support Network
1. Key Facilities and Services near the Subject Site
The appeal of any given community is often based in part to its proximity to those facilities and
services required daily. Key facilities and services and their distances from the subject site are listed
in Table 3 and their locations are plotted on Map 3.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 20
Table 3 Key Facilities and Services
2. Essential Services
Health Care
Northeast Georgia Medical Center Barrow is the closest major medical center at 6.2 miles northwest
of the site near downtown Winder. This 56-bed hospital offers services including emergency
medicine, surgery, imaging, stroke care, orthopedics, heart and vascular, and general medicine.
Piedmont Physicians and Northeast Georgia Physicians Group offer family medicine services within
2.5 miles east of the site along Exchange Boulevard.
Education
The Barrow County School System serves the site and has 16 learning sites with an enrollment of
roughly 14,400 students. School age children residing at the subject property will attend Yargo
Elementary School (1.0 mile), Haymon-Morris Middle School (1.0 mile), and Apalachee High School
(0.8 mile).
The University of Georgia with an enrollment of nearly 40,000 students is roughly 26 miles east of the
site via U.S. Highway 29 while the Atlanta Metro Area is home to many colleges and universities within
30 miles of west and southwest of the site.
Establishment Type Address City
Driving
Distance
Exxon Convenience Store 925 Loganville Hwy. Bethlehem 0.7 mile
Publix Grocery 916 Loganville Hwy. Bethlehem 0.8 mile
Target General Retail / Grocery 916 Loganville Hwy. Bethlehem 0.8 mile
Barrow Crossing Shopping 916 Loganville Hwy. Bethlehem 0.8 mile
CVS Pharmacy 916 Loganville Hwy. Bethlehem 0.8 mile
Apalachee High School Public School 851 Haymon Morris Rd. Winder 0.8 mile
Yargo Elementary School Public School 1000 Haymon Morris Rd. Winder 1 mile
Haymon-Morris Middle School Public School 1008 Haymon Morris Rd. Winder 1 mile
BP Convenience Store 830 Loganville Hwy. Bethlehem 1.2 miles
Piedmont Physicians Doctor/Medical 340 Exchange Blvd Bethlehem 1.7 miles
Barrow County Fire Department Fire 1036 Carl-Bethlehem Rd. Winder 1.8 miles
Dollar General General Retail 1257 Loiganville Hwy. Bethlehem 1.9 miles
Northeast Georgia Physicians Group Doctor/Medical 726 Exchange Blvd. Bethlehem 2.5 miles
United States Postal Service Post Office 820 Christmas Ave. Bethlehem 3.7 miles
BB&T Bank 43 S Broad St. Winder 4.6 miles
Wells Fargo Bank 25 E May St. Winder 5 miles
Winder Police Department Police 25 E Midland Ave. Winder 5 miles
Winder Public Library Library 189 Bellview St. Winder 5.8 miles
NGMC Barrow Hospital 316 N Broad St. Winder 6.2 miles
Source: Field and Internet Research, RPRG, Inc.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 21
Map 3 Location of Key Facilities and Services
3. Commercial Goods and Services
Convenience Goods
The term “convenience goods” refers to inexpensive, nondurable items that households purchase on
a frequent basis and for which they generally do not comparison shop. Examples of convenience
goods are groceries, fast food, health and beauty aids, household cleaning products, newspapers, and
gasoline.
A convenience store (Exxon), a grocery store (Publix), Target (grocery), and a pharmacy are within one
mile of the site at or near Barrow Crossing (shopping destination) on Carl-Bethlehem Road. An
additional convenience store (BP) is 1.2 miles from the site on Loganville Highway while two banks
(BB&T and Wells Fargo) are roughly five miles to the northeast near downtown Winder.
Farmington Hills III | Site Evaluation
Page 22
Shoppers Goods
The term “shoppers goods” refers to larger ticket merchandise that households purchase on an
infrequent basis and for which they usually comparison shop.
Barrow Crossing is an outdoor shopping destination less than one mile east of the site and includes
Target, Publix, Hibbett Sports, PetSmart, Belk, TJ Maxx, Kirkland’s, Famous Footwear, Five Below, and
many smaller retailers. The Home Depot is roughly one-half mile east of the site on Carl-Bethlehem
Road.
4. Location of Low Income Housing
A list and map of existing low-income housing in the Farmington Hills Market Area are provided in the
Existing Low Income Rental Housing section of this report, starting on page 53.
E. Site Conclusion
The subject site is in a growing exurban neighborhood with convenient access to State Highway
316/U.S. Highway 29 which is one of the region’s primary thoroughfares connecting the site to
employment. The site is within one mile of neighborhood amenities at Barrow Crossing including
shopping, a grocery store, a pharmacy, a convenience store, and restaurants. Residential uses are the
most common land use within three miles of the site including the two newest multi-family rental
communities in Barrow County (The Exchange and Farmington), both LIHTC communities. The site
will appeal to households living and working throughout the region.
Farmington Hills III | Market Area
Page 23
5. MARKET AREA
A. Introduction
The primary market area for Farmington Hills III is defined as the geographic area from which future
residents of the community would primarily be drawn and in which competitive rental housing
alternatives are located. In defining the market area, RPRG sought to accommodate the joint interests
of conservatively estimating housing demand and reflecting the realities and dynamics of the local
rental housing marketplace.
B. Delineation of Market Area
The Farmington Hills Market Area consists of census tracts in central Barrow County (including all or
portions of Winder, Bethlehem, and Auburn) and one tract in eastern Gwinnett County (including a
portion of Dacula) (Map 4). The Farmington Hills Market Area focuses on the portions of Barrow and
Gwinnett Counties that are most comparable to the immediate area surrounding the subject site and
is focused on the State Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29 corridor. State Highway 316 roughly bisects the
market area from east to west while State Highway 11 connects the site to Winder to the north and
several other state highways provide additional connectivity. The Farmington Hills Market Area
includes the most comparable multi-family rental communities and residents of these areas would
likely consider the subject site as an acceptable shelter location. Residents along the State Highway
316 corridor would likely consider the subject site for rental housing given convenient access to
employment in the region. The market area is bound to north and south by county lines and does not
extend further east due to distance. The tract in Gwinnett County is included due to convenient access
via State Highway 316.
The boundaries of the Farmington Hills Market Area and their approximate distance from the subject
site are:
North: Jackson County ................................................................................ (8.0 miles)
East: Bowman Mill Road SE / Hog Mountain Road .................................. (7.0 miles)
South: Walton County ....................................................................... (3.6 miles)
West: Alcovy River .................................................................................... (9.1 miles)
The Farmington Hills Market Area is compared to a Bi-County Market Area comprising Barrow and
Walton counties, which is presented as a secondary market area for demographic purposes. Demand
estimates are based only on the Farmington Hills Market Area.
Farmington Hills III | Market Area
Page 24
Map 4 Farmington Hills Market Area
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 25
6. COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
A. Introduction and Methodology
RPRG analyzed recent trends in population and households in the Farmington Hills Market Area and
Bi-County Market Area using several sources. For small area estimates, we examined projections of
population and households prepared by Esri, a national data vendor. We compared and evaluated
data in the context of decennial U.S. Census data from 2000 and 2010 as well as building permit trend
information. Demographic data is presented for 2010, 2020, and 2022 per DCA’s 2020 Market Study
Guide.
Esri recently released estimates and projections for 2020 and 2025. Although we believe it is too early
to quantity the impacts of the pandemic definitively, the most likely changes will be slower household
growth in at least the short term, a high propensity to rent, and likely a decrease in income. The
demographic projections have not been altered, but RPRG will discuss the impact of these potential
changes as they relate to housing demand in the conclusions of this report.
B. Trends in Population and Households
1. Recent Past Trends
The Farmington Hills Market Area grew significantly from 2000 to 2010 with the net addition of 21,967
people (52.5 percent) and 6,757 households (45.8 percent) between 2000 and 2010 Census counts
(Table 4). On an annual basis, the Farmington Hills Market Area added 2,197 people (4.3 percent) and
676 households (3.8 percent) over this period. During the same period, the Bi-County Market Area’s
population and household base grew slower on a percentage basis with net growth of 43.3 percent
among population and 42.2 percent among households.
Esri estimates that growth slowed but remained strong from 2010 to 2020 in the Farmington Hills
Market Area with the net addition of 17,176 people (26.9 percent) and 5,557 households (25.8
percent) over the past 10 years; annual growth was 1,718 people (2.4 percent) and 556 households
(2.3 percent) over this period. Growth in the Bi-County Market Area remained slower on a percentage
basis from 2010 to 2020 with net growth of 18.4 percent among both population and households.
2. Projected Trends
Esri projects growth in the Farmington Hills Market Area to remain strong with the annual addition of
1,736 people (2.1 percent) and 567 households (2.1 percent) from 2020 to 2022. The Farmington Hills
Market Area is expected to reach 84,459 people and 28,189 households by 2022.
The Bi-County Market Area’s annual growth rate among population and households from 2020 to
2022 are projected to be slower on a percentage basis when compared to the Farmington Hills Market
Area at 1.7 percent.
The average household size in the Farmington Hills Market Area of 2.98 persons per household in
2020 is expected to increase slightly to 2.99 persons in 2022 (Table 5).
3. Building Permit Trends
Permitted units in the Bi-County Market Area increased each year from a recession-era low of 107 in
2010 to 1,520 permitted units in 2019. An annual average of 1,427 units were permitted over the past
three years compared to an average of 815 permitted units per year from 2014-2016, a 75 percent
increase (Table 6).
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 26
Single-family detached homes accounted for the vast majority (93 percent) of permitted units in the
Bi-County Market Area over the past 11 years while multi-family structures with five or more units
accounted for six percent. One percent of permitted units were in structures with three to four units
over this period.
Table 4 Population and Household Projections
Table 5 Persons per Household, Farmington Hills Market Area
Bi-County Market Area Farmington HIlls Market Area
Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change
Population Count # % # % Count # % # %
2000
106,831 41,845
2010
153,135 46,304 43.3% 4,630 3.7% 63,812 21,967 52.5% 2,197 4.3%
2020
181,362 28,227 18.4% 2,823 1.7% 80,988 17,176 26.9% 1,718 2.4%
2022
187,496 6,134 3.4% 3,067 1.7% 84,459 3,471 4.3% 1,736 2.1%
Total Change Annual Change Total Change Annual Change
Households Count # % # % Count # % # %
2000
37,661 14,741
2010
53,554 15,893 42.2% 1,589 3.6% 21,498 6,757 45.8% 676 3.8%
2020
63,390 9,836 18.4% 984 1.7% 27,055 5,557 25.8% 556 2.3%
2022
65,537 2,147 3.4% 1,073 1.7% 28,189 1,134 4.2% 567 2.1%
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; Esri; and Real Property Research Group, Inc.
3.6%
1.7%
1.7%
3.8%
2.3%
2.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2022
Bi-County Market Area Farmington HIlls Market Area
Annual Percentage HH Change, 2000 to 2022
Year 2010 2020 2022
Population 63,812 80,988 84,459
Group Quarters 243 364 298
Households 21,498 27,055 28,189
Avg. HH Size 2.96 2.98 2.99
Source: 2010 Census; Esri; and RPRG, Inc.
Average Household Size
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 27
Table 6 Building Permits by Structure Type, Bi-County Market Area
C. Demographic Characteristics
1. Age Distribution and Household Type
The population of the Farmington Hills Market Area is younger than the Bi-County Market Area’s with
median ages of 35 and 37, respectively (Table 7). The Farmington Hills Market Area has large
proportions of Adults ages 35 to 61 (35.6 percent) and Children/Youth under 20 years old (29.0
percent) while Young Adults ages 20 to 34 account for 20.3 percent of the population. Seniors ages
62+ account for 15.1 percent of the population. The Bi-County Market Area has a larger proportion
of people ages 35 and older when compared to the Farmington Hills Market Area (53.6 percent versus
50.7 percent).
Table 7 Age Distribution
2009 140 0 64 0 204
2010 107 0 0 0 107
2011 85 0 0 72 157
2012 193 0 8 56 257
2013 442 0 0 72 514
2014 651 0 0 64 715
2015 824 0 0 6 830
2016 901 0 0 0 901
2017 1,146 0 0 130 1,276
2018 1,372 0 0 113 1,485
2019 1,520 0 0 0 1,520
2009-2019
7,381 0 72 513 7,966
Ann. Avg.
671 0 7 47 724
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, C-40 Building Permit Reports.
5+ Units
Ann.
Total
Year
Single -
Unit
Two
Units
3-4 Units
Bi-County Market Area
204
107
157
257
514
715
830
901
1,276
1,485
1,520
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Total Housing Units Permitted
2009 - 2019
# % # %
Children/Youth 49,885 27.5% 23,475 29.0%
Under 5 years 12,345 6.8% 5,963 7.4%
5-9 years 12,966 7.1% 6,079 7.5%
10-14 years 13,018 7.2% 5,974 7.4%
15-19 years 11,556 6.4% 5,459 6.7%
Young Adults 34,324 18.9% 16,412 20.3%
20-24 years 10,044 5.5% 4,650 5.7%
25-34 years 24,280 13.4% 11,762 14.5%
Adults 64,914 35.8% 28,861 35.6%
35-44 years 24,869 13.7% 11,306 14.0%
45-54 years 24,411 13.5% 11,039 13.6%
55-61 years 15,634 8.6% 6,516 8.0%
Seniors 32,239 17.8% 12,240 15.1%
62-64 years 6,700 3.7% 2,792 3.4%
65-74 years 15,957 8.8% 6,001 7.4%
75-84 years 7,184 4.0% 2,584 3.2%
85 and older 2,398 1.3% 863 1.1%
TOTAL 181,362 100% 80,988 100%
Median Age
Source: Esri; RPRG, Inc.
37 35
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
2020 Age
Distribution
27.5%
18.9%
35.8%
17.8%
29.0%
20.3%
35.6%
15.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Child/Youth
Young
Adults
Adults
Seniors
% Pop
Type
2020 Age Distribution
Farmington HIlls Market Area
Bi-County Market Area
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 28
Multi-person households accounted for 82.1 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area households.
Households with children were the most common household type accounting for 45.0 percent of
Farmington Hills Market Area households while multi-person households without children accounted
for 37.0 percent (Table 8). Single-person households were the least common household type in the
Farmington Hills Market Area at 17.9 percent. The Bi-County Market Area had a smaller proportion
of households with children when compared to the Farmington Hills Market Area (41.6 percent versus
450 percent) while it had a larger proportion of single-person households and multi-person
households without children.
Table 8 Households by Household Type
2. Household Trends by Tenure
a. Recent Past Trends
The number of renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area nearly doubled over the past
20 years from 3,432 in 2000 to 6,310 in 2020 for a net increase of 2,878 renter households or 83.9
percent
1
(Figure 5); the Farmington Hills Market Area added 144 renter households per year over the
past 20 years. By comparison, the
Farmington Hills Market Area added 9,436
net owner households from 2000 to 2020
(annual growth of 472 owner households).
Figure 5 Farmington Hills Market Area
Households by Tenure 2000 to 2020
The Farmington Hills Market Area’s renter
percentage of 23.3 percent in 2020 is
lower than the Bi-County Market Area’s
27.4 percent (Table 9). The Farmington
Hills Market Area’s annual average
household growth by tenure over the past
20 years was 144 renter households (3.1 percent) and 472 owner households (3.1 percent). The blue
shaded columns in Table 9 quantifies the market area’s net growth by tenure over the past 20 years;
renter households accounted for 23.4 percent of net households growth in the Farmington Hills
1
Based on change from 2000 to 2010 Census counts and Esri’s 2019 Estimate
# % # %
Married w/Children 15,406 28.8% 6,883 32.0%
Other w/ Children 6,850 12.8% 2,801 13.0%
Households w/ Children 22,256 41.6% 9,684 45.0%
Married w/o Children 15,546 29.0% 5,578 25.9%
Other Family w/o Children 3,528 6.6% 1,414 6.6%
Non-Family w/o Children 2,198 4.1% 964 4.5%
Households w/o Children 21,272 39.7% 7,956 37.0%
Singles 10,026 18.7% 3,858 17.9%
Total 53,554 100% 21,498 100%
Source: 2010 Census; RPRG, Inc.
2010 Households by
Household Type
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
18.7%
39.7%
41.6%
17.9%
37.0%
45.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Singles
HH w/o
Children
HH w/
Children
% Households
Household Type
2010 Households by Household Type
Farmington HIlls Market Area Bi-County Market Area
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 29
Market Area from 2000 to 2020 which is similar to the 2020 renter percentage (23.3 percent). Renter
households contributed 32.5 percent of the Bi-County Market Area’s net household growth since
2000.
Table 9 Households by Tenure, 2000-2020
b. Projected Household Tenure Trends
Esri projects renter households will account for 19.0 percent of net household growth in the
Farmington Hills Market Area over the next two years resulting in the addition of 215 net renter
households from 2020 to 2022; annual growth is projected at 108 renter households over the next
two years.
Table 10 Households by Tenure, 2020-2022
3. Renter Household Characteristics
Working age households (ages 25 to 54) form the core of renter households in the Farmington Hills
Market Area at 61.5 percent of households including 42.8 percent ages 25 to 44. Roughly 32 percent
of renter households are older adults and seniors ages 55 and older while young renter households
ages 15 to 24 account for 6.6 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area renter households (Table 11).
The Bi-County Market Area has a larger proportion of renter households ages 65 and older when
compared to the Farmington Hills Market Area (20.2 percent versus 17.1 percent).
Housing Units # % # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 28,652 76.1% 40,825 76.2% 46,010 72.6% 17,358 60.6% 868 2.4%
Renter Occupied 9,009 23.9% 12,729 23.8% 17,380 27.4% 8,371 92.9% 419 3.3%
Total Occupied 37,661 100% 53,554 100% 63,390 100% 25,729 68.3% 1,286 2.6%
Total Vacant 2,143 5,281 4,718
TOTAL UNITS 39,804 58,835 68,108
Housing Units # % # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 11,309 76.7% 16,745 77.9% 20,745 76.7% 9,436 83.4% 472 3.1%
Renter Occupied 3,432 23.3% 4,753 22.1% 6,310 23.3% 2,878 83.9% 144 3.1%
Total Occupied 14,741 100% 21,498 100% 27,055 100% 12,314 83.5% 616 3.1%
Total Vacant 746 2,094 1,978
TOTAL UNITS 15,487 23,592 29,033
Source: U.S. Census of Population and Housing, 2000, 2010; Esri, RPRG, Inc.
% of Change
2000 - 2020
Total Change Annual Change
Bi-County
Market Area
2000 2010 2020
Change 2000-2020
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
2000 2010 2020
Change 2000-2020
Total Change
Annual Change
67.5%
32.5%
100%
% of Change
2000 - 2020
76.6%
23.4%
100%
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
2022 Esri HH by
Tenure
Housing Units # % # % # % # %
Owner Occupied 20,745 76.7% 21,663 76.9% 918 81.0% 459 2.2%
Renter Occupied 6,310 23.3% 6,525 23.1% 215 19.0% 108 1.7%
Total Occupied 27,055 100% 28,189 100% 1,134 100% 567 2.1%
Total Vacant 1,978 2,009
TOTAL UNITS 29,033 30,197
Source: Esri, RPRG, Inc.
Annual Change by
Tenure
Esri Change by
Tenure
2020
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 30
Table 11 Renter Households by Age of Householder
Forty-six percent of Farmington Hills Market Area renter households had one or two people including
23.0 percent each of one and two person renter households (Table 12) as of the 2010 Census. More
than one-third (35.0 percent) of Farmington Hills Market Area renter households had three or four
people and a significant percentage (19.0 percent) were large households with five or more people.
Bi-County Market Area renter households were smaller when compared to the Farmington Hills
Market Area with a larger proportion of renter households with three or less people (68.3 percent
versus 64.0 percent).
Table 12 Renter Households by Household Size
4. Income Characteristics
According to income distributions provided by Esri, households in the Farmington Hills Market Area
have a 2020 median household income of $66,718 per year, similar to the $67,083 median in the Bi-
County Market Area (Table 13). Roughly 22 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area households earn
less than $35,000, 34.0 percent earn moderate incomes of $35,000 to $74,999, and 43.9 percent earn
upper incomes of $75,000 or more including 25.4 percent earning at least $100,000.
Renter
Households
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Age of HHldr # % # %
15-24 years 1,166 6.7% 415 6.6% 2
25-34 years 3,636 20.9% 1,414 22.4% 1
35-44 years 3,543 20.4% 1,299 20.6% 1
45-54 years 3,086 17.8% 1,166 18.5% 1
55-64 years 2,435 14.0% 933 14.8%
65-74 years 1,857 10.7% 643 10.2%
2
75+ years 1,657 9.5% 438 6.9% 2
Total 17,380 100% 6,310 100%
Source: Esri, Real Property Research Group, Inc.
6.7%
20.9%
20.4%
17.8%
14.0%
10.7%
9.5%
6.6%
22.4%
20.6%
18.5%
14.8%
10.2%
6.9%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75+
Age of Householder
2020 Renter HHs by Age of HHldr
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
# % # %
1-person hhld 3,304 26.0% 1,095 23.0%
2-person hhld 3,068 24.1% 1,092 23.0%
3-person hhld 2,317 18.2% 853 17.9%
4-person hhld 1,974 15.5% 809 17.0%
5+-person hhld 2,066 16.2% 904 19.0%
TOTAL 12,729 100% 4,753 100%
Source: 2010 Census
Renter
Occupied
26.0%
24.1%
18.2%
15.5%
16.2%
23.0%
23.0%
17.9%
17.0%
19.0%
0% 10% 20% 30%
1-person
2-person
3-person
4-person
5+-person
Hous ehold Size
2010 Persons per Renter HH
Farmington
HIlls Market
Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 31
Table 13 Household Income
Farmington Hills Market Area renter household incomes are distributed relatively evenly including
large proportions of low and moderate-income renter households. Based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s
American Community Survey data, the breakdown of tenure, and household estimates, RPRG
estimates that the median income of Farmington Hills Market Area households by tenure is $47,083
for renters and $72,718 for owners (Table 15). One-third of Farmington Hills Market Area renter
households earn modest income of less than $35,000 including 22.7 percent earning less than
$25,000. Approximately 37 percent of renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area earn
moderate incomes of $35,000 to $74,999 while 29.6 percent earn at least $75,000.
Table 14 Household Income by Tenure, Farmington Hills Market Area
Roughly 36 percent of renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area pay at least 35 percent
of income for rent (Table 15). Approximately four percent of renter households are living in
substandard conditions; this includes only overcrowding and incomplete plumbing.
# % # %
less than $15,000 4,060 6.4% 1,534 5.7% 2
$15,000 $24,999 6,741 10.6% 2,379 8.8% 3
$25,000 $34,999 5,089 8.0% 2,065 7.6% 4
$35,000 $49,999 7,763 12.2% 4,217 15.6% 5
$50,000 $74,999 11,768 18.6% 4,983 18.4% 6
$75,000 $99,999 10,558 16.7% 5,007 18.5% 7
$100,000 $149,999 11,935 18.8% 4,621 17.1% 8
$150,000 Over 5,476 8.6% 2,249 8.3% 9
Total 63,390 100% 27,055 100% 10
Median Income $67,083 $66,718
Source: Esri; Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Estimated 2020
Household Income
6.4%
10.6%
8.0%
12.2%
18.6%
16.7%
18.8%
8.6%
5.7%
8.8%
7.6%
15.6%
18.4%
18.5%
17.1%
8.3%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
<$15K
$15-$24K
$25-$34K
$35-$49K
$50-$74K
$75-$99K
$100-$149K
$150+k
2020 Household Income
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
# % # %
less than $15,000 563 8.9% 971 4.7% 2
$15,000 $24,999 873 13.8% 1,506 7.3% 3
$25,000 $34,999 665 10.5% 1,400 6.7%
4
$35,000 $49,999 1,308 20.7% 2,909 14.0% 5
$50,000 $74,999 1,036 16.4% 3,947 19.0% 6
$75,000 $99,999 827 13.1% 4,180 20.1%
7
$100,000 $149,999 893 14.2% 3,728 18.0% 8
$150,000 over 144 2.3% 2,105 10.1% 9
Total 6,310 100% 20,745 100% 10
Median Income
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018 Estimates, RPRG, Inc.
Estimated 2020 HH
Income
$47,083
$72,718
Renter
Households
Owner
Households
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
563
873
665
1,308
1,036
827
893
144
971
1,506
1,400
2,909
3,947
4,180
3,728
2,105
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
<$15K
$15-$24.9K
$25-$34.9K
$35-$49.9K
$50-$74.9K
$75-$99.9K
$100-$150K
$150k+
Hous ehold Income
2020 Household Income by Tenure
Owner
Households
Renter
Households
Farmington Hills III | Community Demographic Data
Page 32
Table 15 Rent Burdened and Substandard Housing, Farmington Hills Market Area
Rent Cost Burden Substandardness
Total Households
#
%
Total Households
Less than 10.0 percent 178 2.8% Owner occupied:
10.0 to 14.9 percent 608 9.7% Complete plumbing facilities: 16,695
15.0 to 19.9 percent 965 15.3% 1.00 or less occupants per room 16,357
20.0 to 24.9 percent 852 13.6%
1.01 or more occupants per room
338
25.0 to 29.9 percent 761 12.1% Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 47
30.0 to 34.9 percent 452 7.2% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 385
35.0 to 39.9 percent 295 4.7%
40.0 to 49.9 percent 598 9.5% Renter occupied:
50.0 percent or more 1,231 19.6% Complete plumbing facilities: 6,194
Not computed 347 5.5% 1.00 or less occupants per room 6,052
Total 6,287 100.0%
1.01 or more occupants per room
142
Lacking complete plumbing facilities: 93
> 35% income on rent 2,124 35.8% Overcrowded or lacking plumbing 235
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018
Substandard Housing 620
% Total Stock Substandard 2.7%
% Rental Stock Substandard 3.7%
Farmington Hills III | Employment Trends
Page 33
7. EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
A. Introduction
This section of the report discusses economic trends and conditions in Barrow County, the jurisdiction
in which Farmington Hills III is located. We have also presented economic trends in Georgia and the
nation for comparison purposes.
It is important to note that the latest economic data available at the local level is reflected in this
section. This data does not reflect the likely downturn associated with COVID-19 business closures
and job losses. It is too early to determine the exact economic impact on any specific market area or
county; RPRG provides the most recent data available and will provide an analysis and conclusion on
the potential impact of COVID-19 in the conclusion section of this market study.
B. Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment
1. Trends in County Labor Force and Resident Employment
Barrow County’s labor force increased by 5,053 workers (14.3 percent) from 2008 to 2019 with growth
in each of the past seven years (Table 16); the county added 5,303 net workers (15.2 percent) from
2014 to 2019. The number of employed workers increased each of the past nine years for net growth
of 8,308 employed workers (26.9 percent) since 2010 while the number of unemployed workers in
2019 (1,138) is roughly 30 percent of the peak of 3,736 unemployed workers in 2009 during the
recession.
2. Trends in County Unemployment Rate
The annual average unemployment rate in Barrow County has steadily decreased from a recession-
era high of 10.8 percent in 2010 to a low 2.8 percent in 2019 (Table 16). The county’s 2019
unemployment rate of 2.8 percent is significantly below both state (3.4 percent) and national (3.7
percent) rates. Barrow County’s unemployment rate has been below the state rate each year since
2011.
C. Commutation Patterns
Reflecting the exurban location of the Farmington Hills Market Area, workers in the market area have
a wide range of commute times. Roughly 37 of workers residing in the Farmington Hills Market Area
commuted less than 25 minutes, 21.6 percent commuted 25 to 34 minutes, and 38.0 percent
commuted 35 minutes or more including 27.9 percent commuting at least 45 minutes (Table 17).
Nearly 56 percent of market area workers are employed in a Georgia county outside their county of
residence while 43.4 percent are employed in their county of residence. Less than one percent of
workers in the market area work outside the state. The wide range of commute times and large
proportion of workers employed outside their county of residence reflects the market area’s relative
proximity/accessibility to employment concentrations throughout the region including Metro Atlanta
to the southwest and Athens to the east.
Farmington Hills III | Employment Trends
Page 34
Table 16 Labor Force and Unemployment Rates
Table 17 Commutation Data, Farmington Hills Market Area
Annual Unemployment Rates - Not Seasonally Adjusted
Annual Unemployment
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Labor Force 35,332 35,215 34,670 34,618 34,566 34,681 35,082 35,970 37,638 39,123 39,906 40,385
Employment 33,103 31,479 30,939 31,174 31,581 32,118 32,888 34,070 35,863 37,548 38,596 39,247
Unemployment 2,229 3,736 3,731 3,444 2,985 2,563 2,194 1,900 1,775 1,575 1,310 1,138
Unemployment Rate
Barrow County 6.3% 10.6% 10.8% 9.9% 8.6% 7.4% 6.3% 5.3% 4.7% 4.0% 3.3% 2.8%
Georgia 6.2% 9.9% 10.5% 10.2% 9.2% 8.2% 7.1% 6.0% 5.4% 4.7% 3.9% 3.4%
United States 5.8% 9.3% 9.6% 8.8% 8.3% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 3.7%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Barrow County
Georgia
United States
Unemployment
Travel Time to Work Place of Work
Workers 16 years+ # % Workers 16 years and over # %
Did not work at home:
32,476 96.4% Worked in state of residence: 33,412 99.2%
Less than 5 minutes 574 1.7% Worked in county of residence 14,634 43.4%
5 to 9 minutes 1,669 5.0% Worked outside county of residence 18,778 55.7%
10 to 14 minutes 3,122 9.3% Worked outside state of residence 272 0.8%
15 to 19 minutes 3,412 10.1% Total 33,684 100%
20 to 24 minutes 3,602 10.7%
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018
25 to 29 minutes 1,836 5.5%
30 to 34 minutes 5,445 16.2%
35 to 39 minutes 1,323 3.9%
40 to 44 minutes 2,109 6.3%
45 to 59 minutes 4,236 12.6%
60 to 89 minutes 3,524 10.5%
90 or more minutes 1,624 4.8%
Worked at home 1,208 3.6%
Total 33,684
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018
In County
43.4%
Outside
County
55.7%
Outside
State
0.8%
2014-2018 Commuting Patterns
Farmington HIlls Market Area
Farmington Hills III | Employment Trends
Page 35
D. At-Place Employment
1. Trends in Total At-Place Employment
Barrow County added jobs in seven of the past eight years following losses from 2008 to 2011 during
and immediately following the national recession. The county lost 2,062 net jobs from 2008 to 2011
with most jobs lost in 2008 and 2009 (1,962 jobs). Barrow County rebounded strongly with the net
addition of 5,486 jobs from 2012 to 2019 which is more than double the jobs lost during the recession-
era, reaching an all-time high At-Place Employment of 20,145 jobs in 2019 (Figure 6). The county has
added an average of 804 jobs per year over the past three years.
As Illustrated by the line graphs in Figure 6, Barrow County’s job growth has outpaced the nation on
a percentage basis in five of the past seven years including in each of the past three years; the county’s
job growth was significantly higher on a percentage basis in 2013 while it lost a modest 45 jobs in
2016 compared to job growth in the nation.
Figure 6 At-Place Employment, Barrow County
15,607
14,759
14,708
14,659
14,820
16,787
17,139
17,747
17,702
18,416
19,377
20,145
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
At Place Employment
Total At Place Employment
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
-1,114
-848
-51
-49
161
1,967
352
608
-45
714
961
768
-15.0%
-13.0%
-11.0%
-9.0%
-7.0%
-5.0%
-3.0%
-1.0%
1.0%
3.0%
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Change in At Place Employment
Annual Change in Barrow County At Place Employment
United States Annual Employment Growth Rate
Barrow County Annual Employment Growth Rate
Annual Change in At Place
% Annual Growth
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Farmington Hills III | Employment Trends
Page 36
2. At-Place Employment by Industry Sector
Trade-Transportation-Utilities is Barrow County’s single largest economic sector by far, accounting for
roughly one-third (32.9 percent) of the county’s jobs in 2019 compared to 18.6 percent of jobs
nationally (Figure 7). Four sectors (Government, Education-Health, Leisure-Hospitality, and
Manufacturing) each account for roughly 10 to 15 percent of Barrow County’s jobs while the
remaining six sectors account for 7.4 percent or less of the county’s jobs. Outside of the Trade-
Transportation-Utilities sector, the Construction and Manufacturing sectors account for significantly
larger proportions of the county’s jobs compared to the nation while the Financial Activities,
Professional-Business, and Education-Health sectors account for much smaller proportions of Barrow
County’s jobs compared to the nation.
Figure 7 Total Employment by Sector
Nine of 11 sectors added jobs in Barrow County from 2011 to 2019 with the largest sector (Trade-
Transportation-Utilities) growing at the fastest rate of 74.6 percent (Figure 8). Four additional sectors
(Education-Health, Professional-Business, Construction, and Natural Resources-Mining) grew by at
least 43 percent while four sectors grew by 1.6 to 29.2 percent. The two sectors that lost jobs
(Financial Activities and Information) account for roughly two percent of the county’s jobs combined.
Employment by Industry Sector
2019
Sector Jobs
Government 2,967
Federal 165
State 150
Local 2,652
Private Sector 17,177
Goods-Producing 3,795
Natl. Res.-Mining 320
Construction 1,313
Manufacturing 2,162
Service Providing 13,325
Trade-Trans-Utilities 6,633
Information 64
Financial Activities 370
Professional-Business 1,490
Education-Health 1,966
Leisure-Hospitality 2,392
Other 410
Unclassified 57
Total Employment 20,144
14.7%
1.6%
6.5%
10.7%
32.9%
0.3%
1.8%
7.4%
9.8%
11.9%
2.0%
14.7%
1.3%
5.0%
8.6%
18.6%
1.9%
5.6%
14.3%
15.6%
11.1%
3.1%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
Government
Nat Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Total Employmentby Sector 2019
United States
Barrow County
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of La bor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Farmington Hills III | Employment Trends
Page 37
Figure 8 Employment Change by Sector, 2011-2019
3. Major Employers
The Barrow County School System is Barrow County’s largest employer with 2,100 employees
followed by Chico’s FAS, Inc. (Distribution) and Harrison Poultry with 1,100-1,200 employees each
(Table 18). The remaining seven major employers with 180 to 550 employees cover a range of
industries including government, waste removal, leisure-hospitality, manufacturing, healthcare, and
retail with the 180 to 550 employees each. Nearly all major employers are in the Winder area within
five miles of State Highway 316 while Chateau Elan Resort & Winery is roughly 15 miles north of the
site near Interstate 85 (Map 5).
Table 18 Major Employers, Barrow County
1.6%
56.1%
56.3%
23.8%
74.6%
-22.0%
-18.1%
49.1%
43.8%
29.2%
16.8%
2.4%
2.5%
36.1%
9.2%
10.9%
6.5%
12.2%
22.7%
21.4%
23.7%
3.2%
-40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0%
Government
Nat Resources-Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade-Trans-Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional-Business
Education Health
Leisure-Hospitality
Other
Employment Change by Sector, 2011-2019
United States
Barrow County
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages
Rank Name Sector Employment
1
Barrow County School System
Education
2,100
2 Chico’s FAS, Inc. Distribution 1,200
3 Harrison Poultry Food Processing 1,100
4 Republic Services Waste Disposal 550
5 Barrow County Commission Government 545
6 Chateau Elan Resort & Winery Leisure-Hospitality 350
7 Johns Manville Manufacturing 266
8 Barrow Regional Medical Center Healthcare 250
9 WalMart SuperCenter Retail 217
10 Schuetz Container Systems Manufacturing 180
Source: Barrow County Economic Development
Farmington Hills III | Employment Trends
Page 38
Map 5 Major Employers, Barrow County
4. Recent Economic Expansions and Contractions
RRRG did not identify any major job expansions or contractions in Barrow County since 2019.
E. Conclusions on Local Economics
Barrow County’s economy is performing well with job growth in seven of the past eight years and a
decreasing unemployment rate that is below state and national levels. Barrow County has added
5,486 net jobs since 2012, roughly 2.7 times the jobs lost during the recession-era (2008-2011)
reaching an all-time high At-Place Employment in 2019. The county’s 2019 unemployment rate is a
low 2.8 percent which is below the state rate of 3.4 percent. These factors will continue to have a
positive impact on housing demand in the county. Available economic data do not reflect the impact
of the ongoing and evolving COVID-19 related business closures. The county has had significant job
growth since the previous national economic downturn in the late 2000’s.
Farmington Hills III | Project-Specific Affordability & Demand Analysis
Page 39
8. PROJECT-SPECIFIC AFFORDABILITY & DEMAND ANALYSIS
A. Affordability Analysis
1. Methodology
The Affordability Analysis tests the percentage of income-qualified households in the market area that
the subject community must capture to achieve full occupancy.
The first component of the Affordability Analysis involves looking at the total household income
distribution and renter household income distribution among Farmington Hills Market Area
households for the target year of 2022. RPRG calculated the income distribution for both total
households and renter households based on the relationship between owner and renter household
incomes by income cohort from the 2014-2018 American Community Survey along with estimates
and projected income growth by Esri (Table 19).
A housing unit is typically said to be affordable to households that would be expending a certain
percentage of their annual income or less on the expenses related to living in that unit. In the case of
rental units, these expenses are generally of two types – monthly contract rents paid to landlords and
payment of utility bills for which the tenant is responsible. The sum of the contract rent and utility
bills is referred to as a household’s ‘gross rent burden’. For the Affordability Analysis, RPRG employs
a 35 percent gross rent burden.
HUD has computed a 2020 median household income of $82,700 for the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-
Roswell, GA HUD Metro FMR Area. Based on that median income, adjusted for household size, the
maximum income limit and minimum income requirements are computed for each floor plan (Table
20). The proposed units at Farmington Hills III will target renter households earning up to 40 percent,
60 percent, and 80 percent of the Area Median Income (AMI), adjusted for household size. The
minimum income limits are calculated assuming up to 35 percent of income is spent on total housing
cost (rent plus utilities). The maximum allowable incomes are based on an average household size of
1.5 persons per bedroom rounded up to the nearest whole number per DCA requirements. Maximum
gross rents, however, are based on the federal regulation of 1.5 persons per bedroom.
Table 19 Total and Renter Income Distribution, Farmington Hills Market Area
2022 Income
# % # %
less than $15,000
1,517 5.4% 559 8.6%
$15,000 $24,999
2,396 8.5% 882 13.5%
$25,000 $34,999
2,080 7.4% 672 10.3%
$35,000 $49,999
4,299 15.3% 1,338 20.5%
$50,000 $74,999
5,151 18.3% 1,075 16.5%
$75,000 $99,999
5,249 18.6% 870 13.3%
$100,000 $149,999
4,982 17.7% 967 14.8%
$150,000 Over
2,515 8.9% 162 2.5%
Total 28,189 100% 6,525 100%
Median Income
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018 Projections, RPRG, Inc.
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
$68,455
$47,879
2022 Total
Households
2022 Renter
Households
Farmington Hills III | Project-Specific Affordability & Demand Analysis
Page 40
Table 20 LIHTC Income and Rent Limits, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA HUD Metro FMR Area
2. Affordability Analysis
The steps below look at the affordability of the proposed units at the subject property (Table 21):
Looking at the 40 percent AMI one-bedroom units (upper left panel), the overall shelter cost
at the proposed rent would be $620 ($515 net rent with a utility allowance of $105 to cover
all utilities except trash removal).
We determined that a one-bedroom unit at 40 percent AMI would be affordable to
households earning at least $21,257 per year by applying a 35 percent rent burden to this
gross rent. A projected 5,414 renter households in the market area will earn at least this
amount in 2022.
The maximum income limit for a one-bedroom unit at 40 percent AMI is $26,480 based on a
household size of two people. According to the interpolated income distribution for 2022,
4,984 renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area will have incomes exceeding this
40 percent AMI income limit.
Subtracting the 4,984 renter households with incomes above the maximum income limit from
the 5,414 renter households that could afford to rent this unit, RPRG computes that a
projected 430 renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area will fall within the band
of affordability for the subject’s 40 percent AMI one-bedroom units. The subject property
would need to capture 4.2 percent of these income-qualified renter households to absorb the
18 proposed one-bedroom units at 40 percent AMI.
Using the same methodology, we determined the band of qualified households for the
remaining floor plan types and the project overall. The remaining renter capture rates by
HUD 2020 Median Household Income
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA HUD Metro FMR Area $82,700
Very Low Income for 4 Person Household $41,350
2020 Computed Area Median Gross Income $82,700
Utility Allowance: $105
$129
$163
Household Income Limits by Household Size:
Household Size 30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120% 150% 200%
1 Person $17,370 $23,160 $28,950 $34,740 $46,320 $57,900 $69,480 $86,850 $115,800
2 Persons
$19,860 $26,480 $33,100 $39,720 $52,960 $66,200 $79,440 $99,300 $132,400
3 Persons $22,350 $29,800 $37,250 $44,700 $59,600 $74,500 $89,400 $111,750 $149,000
4 Persons
$24,810 $33,080 $41,350 $49,620 $66,160 $82,700 $99,240 $124,050 $165,400
5 Persons $26,820 $35,760 $44,700 $53,640 $71,520 $89,400 $107,280 $134,100 $178,800
7 Persons
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
Imputed Income Limits by Number of Bedroom (Assuming 1.5 persons per bedroom):
Persons
# Bed-
rooms
30% 40% 50% 60% 80% 100% 120% 150% 200%
2 1 $19,860 $26,480 $33,100 $39,720 $52,960 $66,200 $79,440 $99,300 $132,400
3 2 $22,350 $29,800 $37,250 $44,700 $59,600 $74,500 $89,400 $111,750 $149,000
5 3 $26,820 $35,760 $44,700 $53,640 $71,520 $89,400 $107,280 $134,100 $178,800
LIHTC Tenant Rent Limits by Number of Bedrooms (assumes 1.5 persons per bedroom):
30% 40% 50% 60% 80%
Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net Gross Net
1 Bedroom $465 $360 $620 $515 $775 $670 $930 $825 $1,241 $1,136
2 Bedroom $558 $429 $745 $616 $931 $802 $1,117 $988 $1,490 $1,361
3 Bedroom $645 $482 $860 $697 $1,075 $912 $1,290 $1,127 $1,721 $1,558
Source: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
1 Bedroom
2 Bedroom
# Persons
3 Bedroom
Farmington Hills III | Project-Specific Affordability & Demand Analysis
Page 41
floor plan range from 1.4 to 10.5 percent while the capture rates by AMI level are 5.6 percent
for 40 percent AMI units, 3.5 percent for 60 percent AMI units, and 2.9 percent for 80 percent
AMI units; the project’s overall capture rate is 5.5 percent.
Table 21 Affordability Analysis, Farmington Hills III
40% AMI 35% Rent Burden One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units
Min. Max. Min. Max. Min. Max.
Number of Units 18 30 12
Net Rent $515 $616 $697
Gross Rent $620 $745 $860
Income Range (Min, Max) $21,257 $26,480 $25,543 $29,800 $29,486 $35,760
Renter Households
Range of Qualified Hhlds 5,414 4,984 5,047 4,761 4,782 4,344
430 286 439
Renter HH Capture Rate 4.2% 10.5% 2.7%
60% AMI 35% Rent Burden One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units
Number of Units 18 30 12
Net Rent $820 $987 $1,122
Gross Rent $925 $1,116 $1,285
Income Range (Min, Max) $31,714 $39,720 $38,263 $44,700 $44,057 $53,640
Renter Households
Range of Qualified Hhlds 4,633 3,991 4,121 3,546 3,604 2,917
642 574 687
Renter HH Capture Rate 2.8% 5.2% 1.7%
80% AMI 35% Rent Burden One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units
Number of Units 18 30 12
Net Rent $969 $1,104 $1,387
Gross Rent $1,074 $1,233 $1,550
Income Range (Min, Max) $36,823 $52,960 $42,274 $59,600 $53,143 $71,520
Renter Households
Range of Qualified Hhlds 4,249 2,946 3,763 2,661 2,938 2,148
# Qualified Households
1,303 1,102 790
Renter HH Capture Rate 1.4% 2.7% 1.5%
# Qualified Hhlds
# Qualified Hhlds
Band of Qualified Hhlds
# Qualified
HHs
Capture
Rate
Income $21,257 $35,760
40% AMI 60 Households 5,414 4,344 1,070
5.6%
Income $31,714 $53,640
60% AMI 60 Households 4,633 2,917 1,716
3.5%
Income $36,823 $71,520
80% AMI 60 Households 4,249 2,148 2,101 2.9%
Income $21,257 $71,520
Total Units 180 Households 5,414 2,148 3,266
5.5%
Source: Income Projections, RPRG, Inc.
Income Target # Units
Renter Households = 6,525
Farmington Hills III | Project-Specific Affordability & Demand Analysis
Page 42
3. Conclusions of Affordability
All affordability capture rates are acceptable indicating sufficient income-qualified households will
exist in the market area to support the proposed units at Farmington Hills III.
B. Demand Estimates and Capture Rates
1. Methodology
DCA’s demand methodology for general occupancy communities consists of three components:
The first component of demand is household growth. This number is the number of income-
qualified renter households projected to move into the Farmington Hills Market Area
between the base year (2020) and the placed-in-service year of 2022.
The next component of demand is income-qualified renter households living in substandard
households. “Substandard” is defined as having more than 1.01 persons per room and/or
lacking complete plumbing facilities. According to ACS data, the percentage of renter
households in the primary market area that are “substandard” is 3.7 percent (see Table 15 on
page 32). This substandard percentage is applied to current household numbers.
The third component of demand is cost burdened renters, which is defined as those renter
households paying more than 35 percent of household income for housing costs. According
to ACS data, 35.8 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area renter households are categorized
as cost burdened (see Table 15 on page 32).
The data assumptions used in the calculation of these demand estimates are detailed at the bottom
of Table 22. Income qualification percentages for demand estimates are derived by using the
Affordability Analysis detailed in Table 21.
2. Demand Analysis
According to DCA’s demand methodology, all comparable units recently funded by DCA, proposed for
funding for a bond allocation from DCA, or any comparable units at communities undergoing lease-
up are to be subtracted from the demand estimates to arrive at net demand. The 156 units proposed
at River’s Edge are subtracted from demand estimates; all units at this community will target renter
households earning up to 60 percent AMI.
Capture rates for the subject property are 13.3 percent for the 40 percent AMI units, 10.5 percent for
the 60 percent AMI units, 6.8 percent for the 80 percent AMI units, and the project’s overall capture
rate is 14.7 percent (Table 22). Farmington Hills III's capture rates by floor plan within each income
target range from 3.3 percent to 24.8 percent and the capture rates by floor plan are 5.8 for all one-
bedroom units, 13.5 percent for all two-bedroom units, and 8.6 percent for all three-bedroom units
(Table 23).
Farmington Hills III | Project-Specific Affordability & Demand Analysis
Page 43
Table 22 Overall Demand Estimates, Farmington Hills III
Table 23 Demand Estimates by Floor Plan, Farmington Hills III
3. DCA Demand Conclusions
All capture rates are well within acceptable levels indicating sufficient demand in the market area to
support the proposed subject property and the comparable pipeline DCA community.
Income Target
40% AMI
60% AMI
80% AMI
Total Units
Minimum Income Limit
$21,257
$31,714
$36,823
$21,257
Maximum Income Limit
$35,760
$53,640
$71,520
$71,520
(A) Renter Income Qualification Percentage
16.4%
26.3%
32.2%
50.1%
Demand from New Renter Households
Calculation (C-B) *F*A
43 70 85 132
PLUS
Demand from Existing Renter HHs (Substandard)
Calculation B*D*F*A
39 62 76 118
PLUS
Demand from Existing Renter HHhs (Overburdened)
- Calculation B*E*F*A
370 593 726 1,129
Total Demand
452
725
887
1,380
LESS
Comparable Units
0
156
0
156
Net Demand
452
569
887
1,224
Proposed Units
60
60
60
180
Capture Rate
13.3%
10.5%
6.8%
14.7%
Demand Calculation Inputs
A). % of Renter Hhlds with Qualifying Income
see above
B). 2020 Householders
27,055
C). 2022 Householders
28,189
D). Substandard Housing (% of Rental Stock)
3.7%
E). Rent Overburdened (% of Renter HHs at >35%)
35.8%
F). Renter Percentage (% of al l 2020 HHs)
23.3%
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Large Household
Size Adjustment
(3+ Persons)
Adjusted
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
40% AMI $21,257 - $35,760
One Bedroom Units 18 6.6% 182 182 0 182 9.9%
Two Bedroom Units 30 4.4% 121 121 0 121 24.8%
Three Bedroom Units 12 6.7% 185 54.0% 100 0 100 12.0%
60% AMI $31,714 - $53,640
One Bedroom Units 18 9.8% 271 271 72 199 9.0%
Two Bedroom Units 30 8.8% 243 243 72 171 17.6%
Three Bedroom Units 12 10.5% 290 54.0% 157 12 145 8.3%
80% AMI $36,823 - $71,520
One Bedroom Units 18 20.0% 550 550 0 550 3.3%
Two Bedroom Units 30 16.9% 466 466 0 466 6.4%
Three Bedroom Units 12 12.1% 334 54.0% 180 0 180 6.7%
By Bedroom
One Bedroom Units 54 36.4% 1,003 1,003 72 931 5.8%
Two Bedroom Units 90 26.8% 738 738 72 666 13.5%
Three Bedroom Units 36 29.0% 800 54.0% 432 12 420 8.6%
Project Total $21,257 - $71,520
40% AMI $21,257 - $35,760 60 16.4% 452 0 452 13.3%
60% AMI $31,714 - $53,640 60 26.3% 725 156 569 10.5%
80% AMI $36,823 - $71,520 60 32.2% 887 0 887 6.8%
Total Units $21,257 - $71,520 180 50.1% 1,380 156 1,224 14.7%
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
Page 44
9. COMPETITIVE RENTAL ANALYSIS
A. Introduction and Sources of Information
This section presents data and analyses pertaining to the supply of rental housing in the Farmington
Hills Market Area. We pursued several avenues of research to identify multifamily rental projects that
are in the planning stages or under construction in the Farmington Hills Market Area. We interviewed
planners with the Cities of Winder and Dacula as well as Barrow and Gwinnett Counties. We also
reviewed LIHTC application/allocation lists provided by DCA. The rental survey was conducted in July
2020.
B. Overview of Market Area Housing Stock
Renter-occupied units in both the Farmington Hills Market Area and Bi-County Market Area include a
large proportion of units in low-density structures including single-family detached homes and mobile
homes. Two-thirds of Farmington Hills Market Area renter-occupied units are single-family detached
homes and 6.1 percent are mobile homes. Approximately 23 percent of renter-occupied units in the
Farmington Hills Market Area are in multi-family structures including 9.6 percent in structures with
five or more units (Table 24). The Bi-County Market Area contains a similar proportion of renter
occupied units in multi-family structures when compared to the Farmington Hills Market Area (23.3
percent versus 22.5 percent) but a lower percentage of single-family detached home renter occupied
units and larger proportion of renter occupied units in mobile homes. Nearly all owner-occupied units
in both areas are single-family detached homes or mobiles homes.
The Farmington Hills Market Area’s rental housing stock is newer than the Bi-County Market Area’s
with a median year built of 1992 compared to 1988 in the Bi-County Market Area. The majority (54.3
percent) of Farmington Hills Market Area renter occupied units were built since 1990 including 30.3
percent built since 2000. Approximately 28 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area renter
households were built in the 1970’s or 1980’s while 17.4 percent were built prior to 1970 (Table 25).
The Bi-County Market Area has a significantly smaller proportion of renter-occupied units built since
2000 when compared to the Farmington Hills Market Area (21.8 percent versus 30.3 percent) and a
larger proportion built prior to 1970 (19.2 percent versus 17.4 percent). Owner occupied units in the
Farmington Hills Market Area are newer than renter occupied units with a median year built of 1999
including a much larger proportion of owner-occupied units built since 2000 (48.8 percent versus 30.3
percent).
According to 2014-2018 ACS data, the median value among owner-occupied housing units in the
Farmington Hills Market Area was $157,529, which is 4.5 percent less than the Bi-County Market Area
median of $164,880 (Table 26). ACS estimates home values based upon values from homeowners’
assessments of the values of their homes. This data is traditionally a less accurate and reliable
indicator of home prices in an area than actual sales data but offers insight of relative housing values
among two or more areas.
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
Page 45
Table 24 Dwelling Units by Structure and Tenure
Table 25 Dwelling Units by Year Built and Tenure
Table 26 Value of Owner Occupied Housing Stock
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
# % # % # % # %
1, detached 38,552 93.6% 15,705 93.8% 8,950 59.2% 4,190 66.6%
1, attached 305 0.7% 246 1.5% 973 6.4% 296 4.7%
2 7 0.0% 0 0.0% 1,477 9.8% 563 9.0%
3-4 21 0.1% 0 0.0% 762 5.0% 250 4.0%
5-9 23 0.1% 0 0.0% 686 4.5% 293 4.7%
10-19 14 0.0% 6 0.0% 312 2.1% 140 2.2%
20+ units 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 281 1.9% 171 2.7%
Mobile home 2,254 5.5% 785 4.7% 1,690 11.2% 384 6.1%
TOTAL 41,176 100% 16,742 100% 15,131 101% 6,287 100%
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018
Renter OccupiedOwner Occupied
Structure Type
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
# % # % # % # %
2014 or later 1,079 2.6% 634 3.8% 176 1.2% 70 1.1%
2010 to 2013 806 2.0% 358 2.1% 423 2.8% 323 5.1%
2000 to 2009 15,771 38.3% 7,181 42.9% 2,713 17.8% 1,513 24.1%
1990 to 1999 11,856 28.8% 4,188 25.0% 3,905 25.7% 1,508 24.0%
1980 to 1989 5,408 13.1% 1,855 11.1% 3,119 20.5% 917 14.6%
1970 to 1979 2,643 6.4% 1,033 6.2% 1,970 12.9% 859 13.7%
1960 to 1969 1,801 4.4% 784 4.7% 1,056 6.9% 428 6.8%
1950 to 1959 807 2.0% 357 2.1% 803 5.3% 331 5.3%
1940 to 1949 261 0.6% 97 0.6% 226 1.5% 69 1.1%
1939 or earlier 797 1.9% 255 1.5% 832 5.5% 269 4.3%
TOTAL 41,229 100% 16,742 100% 15,223 100% 6,287 100%
MEDIAN YEAR
BUILT
1997 1999 1988 1992
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018
Renter OccupiedOwner Occupied
Year Built
# % # %
less than $60,000 2,399 5.8% 873 5.2%
$60,000 $99,999 4,716 11.4% 1,665 9.9%
$100,000 $149,999 10,704 26.0% 5,127 30.6%
$150,000 $199,999 9,393 22.8% 4,688 28.0%
$200,000 $299,999 8,125 19.7% 2,911 17.4%
$300,000 $399,999 3,574 8.7% 661 3.9%
$400,000 $499,999 1,133 2.7% 527 3.1%
$500,000 $749,999 777 1.9% 180 1.1%
$750,000 over 408 1.0% 110 0.7%
Total 41,229 100% 16,742 100%
Median Value
Source: American Community Survey 2014-2018
2014-2018 Home Value
Bi-County
Market Area
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
$164,880
$157,529
5.8%
11.4%
26.0%
22.8%
19.7%
8.7%
2.7%
1.9%
1.0%
5.2%
9.9%
30.6%
28.0%
17.4%
3.9%
3.1%
1.1%
0.7%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
< $60K
$60-$99K
$100-149k
$150-$199K
$200-$299K
$300-$399K
$400-$499K
$500-$749K
$750>
% of Owner Occupied Dwellings
Home Value ($000s)
2014-2018 Home Value
Farmington HIlls
Market Area
Bi-County Market
Area
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
Page 46
C. Survey of General Occupancy Rental Communities
1. Introduction to the Rental Housing Survey
RPRG surveyed seven multi-family rental communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area including
five market rate communities and two Low Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) communities as part
of this analysis. The LIHTC communities are considered most comparable to the subject property
including the first two phases of the subject property (Farmington Hills) given similar income and rent
restrictions. We were unable to survey one LIHTC community (Rock Springs) following repeated
attempts to contact management; however, this community is deeply subsidized and is not
comparable to the subject property which will not have deep subsidies. Profile sheets with detailed
information on each surveyed community are attached as Appendix 6.
2. Location
The two surveyed LIHTC communities (The Exchange and the first two phases of Farmington Hills) are
within three miles of the site and are the newest communities by at least 14 years. Four market rate
communities are roughly five to seven miles to the northeast near downtown Winder while the lowest
priced market rate community is to the northwest in Auburn (Map 6). The subject site is generally
comparable to the location of nearly all surveyed communities in the market area including both LIHTC
communities. The site is superior to the location of Quail Valley Duplexes in Auburn given proximity
to major traffic arteries and neighborhood amenities.
Map 6 Surveyed Rental Communities
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
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3. Size of Communities
The surveyed communities range in size from nine to 144 units and average 77 units (Table 27). The
two LIHTC communities are the largest surveyed communities with 130 units (The Exchange) and 144
units (Farmington Hills) while the market rate communities range from nine to 102 units.
4. Age of Communities
The two LIHTC communities are the newest surveyed communities with the two phases of Farmington
hills built in 2012 and 2014; The Exchange was built in 2018. Market rate communities are much
older and built from 1983 to 1998 (Table 27); three market rate communities were built in the 1980’s
and two were built in 1997 or 1998.
5. Structure Type
Three surveyed communities offer both garden apartments and townhomes, two offer townhomes
exclusively, and Farmington Hills offers garden apartments only. Quail Valley Duplexes offer duplexes
only.
6. Vacancy Rates
The Farmington Hills Market Area’s rental market is performing well with nine vacancies among 539
combined units for an aggregate vacancy rate of 1.7 percent (Table 27). Five of seven communities
are fully occupied while the highest vacancy rate is 5.7 percent at Brookwood Townhomes. Among
LIHTC communities, The Exchange has five vacancies among 130 units for a vacancy rate of 3.8 percent
and the first two phases of the subject property (Farmington Hills) are fully occupied with a waiting
list.
7. Rent Concessions
None of the surveyed communities were offering rental incentives at the time of our survey.
Table 27 Rental Summary, Surveyed Communities
Map Year Structure Total Vacant Vacancy Avg 1BR Avg 2BR
# Community Built Type Units Units Rate Rent (1) Rent (1) Incentive
Subject - 40% AMI Gar 60 $515 $616
Subject - 60% AMI Gar 60 $820 $987
Subject - 80% AMI Gar 60 $969 $1,104
180
1 The Exchange* 2018 Gar/TH 130 5 3.8% $789 $940
None
2 Hillcrest 1989 Gar/TH 102 0 0.0% $750 $938
None
3 Winder Villas 1983 Gar/TH 64 0 0.0% $892
None
4 Brookwood TH 1998 TH 70 4 5.7% $875
None
5 Farmington Hills* 2012 Gar 144 0 0.0% $705 $820
None
6 Lily Drive 1997 TH 9 0 0.0% $785
None
7 Quail Valley Duplexes 1985 Duplex 20 0 0.0% $600
None
Total 539 9 1.7%
Average 1997 77 $748 $836
LIHTC Total 274 5 1.8%
LIHTC Average 2015 137 $747 $880
(1) Rent is contract rent, and not adjusted for utilities or incentives
(*) Tax Credit Community
Source: Phone Survey, RPRG, Inc. July 2020
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
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8. Absorption History
The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC community) opened in January 2018 and leased all 130 units by
August 2018 for an average monthly absorption of 18.6 units.
D. Analysis of Product Offerings
1. Payment of Utility Costs
Five of seven surveyed communities include trash removal in the rent including three which also offer
water and sewer in the rent. Two market rate communities include no utilities in the rent (Table 28).
Both LIHTC communities include trash removal similar to the subject property which will include only
trash removal in the rent.
2. Unit Features
Six of seven surveyed communities offer a dishwasher in each unit and all communities offer washer
and dryer connections. The two highest-priced communities and the first phases of the subject
property offer a microwave in each unit while the remaining older market rate communities do not
offer this feature. Both LIHTC communities offer a dishwasher, microwave, and washer and dryer
connections.
Farmington Hills III will offer a dishwasher, range/oven, refrigerator, microwave, ceiling fans, and
washer and dryer connections which is comparable to the surveyed LIHTC communities including The
Exchange which offers both LIHTC and market rate units. The subject property’s unit features will be
superior to most of the market rate communities given only one of five of these communities offer a
microwave. The proposed unit features will be competitive in the market area among both LIHTC and
market rate communities.
Table 28 Utility Arrangement and Unit Features
3. Community Amenities
Both LIHTC communities offer extensive amenity packages while the older market rate communities
offer limited or no community amenities. LIHTC communities offer a clubhouse/community room,
swimming pool, playground, and business/computer center while the newest LIHTC community (The
Community
Heat
Hot Water
Cooking
Electric
Water
Trash
Dish-
washer
Micro-
wave Parking
In-Unit
Laundry
Subject Property
o o o o o x
STD
STD
Surface
Hook Ups
The Exchange* o o o o o x STD STD Surface Hook Ups
Hillcrest
o o o o x x
STD STD Surface Hook Ups
Winder Villas
o o o o x x Select Surface Hook Ups
Brookwood TH
o o o o o o
STD Surface Hook Ups
Farmington Hills* o o o o o x STD STD Surface Hook Ups
Lily Drive
o o o o x x STD Surface Hook Ups
Quail Valley Duplexes
o o o o o o
Surface Hook Ups
Source: Phone Survey, RPRG, Inc. July 2020
LIHTC Community*
Utilities Included in Rent
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
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Exchange) also offers a fitness center (Table 29). Four of five market rate communities offer no
amenities while Brookwood TH offers a playground only.
Farmington Hills III will offer a clubhouse/community room, fitness center, swimming pool,
playground, business/computer center, and laundry facilities which is comparable to the existing
LIHTC communities in the market area including The Exchange which offers the highest-priced market
rate units in the market area. The proposed amenities are far superior to those at the older market
rate communities, most of which offer no amenities. The subject’s amenities will be competitive with
the LIHTC communities and will result in a competitive advantage compared to existing market rate
communities in the market area.
Table 29 Community Amenities
4. Unit Distribution
All surveyed communities offer two-bedroom units including three of five market rate communities
which offer two-bedroom units only; four communities offer three-bedroom units and three
communities offer one-bedroom units (Table 30). Both LIHTC communities offer one, two, and three-
bedroom units while only one market rate community (Hillcrest) offers all three floor plans. Unit
distributions were available for six of seven surveyed communities accounting for 87.0 percent of
surveyed units; two-bedroom units are the most common accounting for 58.0 percent of units while
one-bedroom units account for 18.6 percent and three-bedroom units account for 23.5 percent.
5. Effective Rents
Unit rents presented in Table 30 are net or effective rents, as opposed to street or advertised rents.
We applied downward adjustments to street rents to control for current rental incentives. The net
rents further reflect adjustments to street rents to equalize the impact of utility expenses across
complexes. Specifically, the net rents represent the hypothetical situation where base rents include
the cost of trash removal.
Among all surveyed rental communities, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were as
follows:
Community
Clubhouse
Fitness Room
Pool
Playground
Tennis Court
Business Center
Gated Entry
Subject Property
x
x
x
x
o
x
o
The Exchange*
x x
x
x o x o
Hillcrest
o o o o o o o
Winder Villas
o o o o o o o
Brookwood TH
o o o x o o o
Farmington Hills*
x o
x
x o x o
Lily Drive
o o o o o o o
Quail Valley Duplexes
o o o o o o o
Source: Phone Survey, RPRG, Inc. July 2020 LIHTC Community*
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
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One-bedroom effective rents average $751 per month. The average one-bedroom unit size
is 801 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.94. The range for one-bedroom
effective rents is $562 to $970.
Two-bedroom effective rents average $845 per month. The average two-bedroom unit size
is 1,078 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.78. The range for two-
bedroom effective rents is $610 to $1,105.
Three-bedroom effective rents average $1,056 per month. The average three-bedroom unit
size is 1,318 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.80. The range for three-
bedroom effective rents is $736 to $1,450.
Sixty percent AMI LIHTC rents at both LIHTC communities are among the existing market rate rents in
the market area and the market rate rents at The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC community) are the
highest rents in the market area by a wide margin.
Table 30 Unit Distribution, Size, and Pricing
6. Scattered Site Rentals
Given the limited multi-family rental market and large proportion of renter-occupied units in single-
family homes in the Farmington Hills Market Area, we have included data on available scattered site
rental units in the market area. RPRG identified one two-bedroom and five three-bedroom listings
for scattered site rentals in the Farmington Hills Market Area; the available scattered site rentals cover
a range of products from single-family detached homes to townhomes and newer to older properties
(Table 31). The two-bedroom unit is listed for $950 while the three-bedroom units average $1,498
per month for a 1,587 square foot unit.
Total One Bedroom Units Two Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units
Community Units Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Units Rent(1) SF Rent/SF
Subject - 40% AMI 60 18 $515 800 $0.64 30 $616 1,000 $0.62 12 $697 1,200 $0.58
Subject - 60% AMI 60 18 $820 800 $1.03 30 $987 1,000 $0.99 12 $1,122 1,200 $0.94
Subject - 80% AMI 60 18 $969 800 $1.21 30 $1,104 1,000 $1.10 12 $1,387 1,200 $1.16
The Exchange 13 1 $970 815 $1.19 2 $1,105 1,100 $1.00 10 $1,450 1,490 $0.97
The Exchange 60% AMI* 91 27 $830 815 $1.02 30 $994 1,100 $0.90 34 $1,134 1,317 $0.86
Hillcrest 102 25 $735 700 $1.05 67 $918 1,013 $0.91 10 $1,175 1,100 $1.07
Brookwood TH 70 $885 1,143 $0.77 $1,078 1,427 $0.76
Farmington Hills 60% AMI* 122 18 $765 829 $0.92 62 $885 1,094 $0.81 42 $965 1,286 $0.75
Winder Villas 64 64 $872 881 $0.99
Lily Drive 9 9 $765 1,175 $0.65
Farmington Hills 50% AMI* 22 8 $645 829 $0.78 8 $755 1,094 $0.69 6 $855 1,286 $0.66
The Exchange 50% AMI* 26 8 $562 815 $0.69 10 $662 1,100 $0.60 8 $736 1,317 $0.56
Quail Valley Duplexes 20 20 $610 - -
Total/Average 539 $751 801 $0.94 $845 1,078 $0.78 $1,056 1,318 $0.80
Unit Distribution 469 87 272 110
% of Total 87.0% 18.6% 58.0% 23.5%
(1) Rent is adjusted to include trash, and Incentives
(*) Tax Credit Community
Source: Phone Survey, RPRG, Inc. July 2020
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
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Table 31 Scattered Site Rentals, Farmington Hills Market Area
7. DCA Average Market Rent
To determine the “average market rents” as outlined in DCA’s 2020 Market Study Manual, market
rate rents at The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC community) were utilized. The Exchange is the only
comparable community with market rate units in the market area given its age (built in 2018) and
extensive community amenities. All market rate communities in the market area are at least 20 years
old and offer little to no community amenities; the subject property will be superior to all of the
existing market rate communities based on new construction, unit features/finishes, and community
amenities. It should be noted that all market rate units at The Exchange are occupied, indicating these
rents are appropriate for the market area. It is also important to note, “average market rents” are
not adjusted to reflect differences in age, unit size, or amenities relative to the subject property. LIHTC
units are not used in this calculation.
The “average market rent” is $970 for one-bedroom units, $1,105 for two-bedroom units, and $1,450
for three-bedroom units (Table 32). The proposed 40 percent AMI rents have rent advantages of at
least 79 percent and the proposed 60 percent AMI rents have rent advantages of at least 12.0 percent.
All proposed 80 percent AMI rents are below average market rents. The project’s overall weighted
average rent advantage is 35.4 percent (Table 33).
Table 32 Average Rents
Bed Bath Sq. Ft. Rent Address City Type
2 1 792 $950 223 Highlands Dr. Winder SFD
2BR Average 792 $950
3 2 1,801 $1,725 916 Kendall Park Dr. Winder SFD
3 2 1,814 $1,550 1712 Snapping Ct. Winder TH
3 2 1,460 $1,535 2660 Dacula Ridge Dr. Dacula SFD
3 2 1,551 $1,350 2773 Michelle Cir. Dacula SFD
3 2 1,308 $1,329 1624 River Trace Auburn SFD
3BR Average 1,587 $1,498
Source: Rent.com, Zillow.com
One Bedroom Units Three Bedroom Units
Community Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF Rent(1) SF Rent/SF
The Exchange $970 815 $1.19 $1,105 1,100 $1.00 $1,450 1,490 $0.97
Total/Average
$970
815
$1.19
$1,105
1,100
$1.00
$1,450
1,490
$0.97
(1) Rent is adjusted to include trash, and Incentives
Source: Phone Survey, RPRG, Inc. July 2020
Two Bedroom Units
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
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Table 33 Average Market Rent and Rent Advantage Summary
E. Multi-Family Pipeline
According to DCA LIHTC allocation/application lists and interviews with planning officials, one
comparable affordable general occupancy rental community is in the development pipeline in the
Farmington Hills Market Area:
River’s Edge recently applied for four percent Low Income Housing Tax Credits for 156 general
occupancy LIHTC rental units targeting households earning up to 60 percent of the Area
Median Income (AMI). The developer (Tapestry Development) stated that the project will
offer 72 one-bedroom units, 72 two-bedroom units, and 12 three-bedroom units. The project
will be at 1395 Winder Highway near Dacula, just inside the Farmington Hills Market Area.
River’s Edge will directly compete with the subject property given similar income and rent
restrictions.
Additionally, Wimberly Manor was allocated nine percent tax credits in 2019 in the Farmington Hills
Market Area. The project will offer 73 age-restricted units targeting households with householder
age 55+ and will not directly compete with the subject property given a difference in age targeting.
F. Housing Authority Data
The Winder Housing Authority manages approximately 322 Section 8 units and 380 additional Housing
Choice Vouchers (HCV) with a long waiting list. The authority does not manage any public housing
units.
1 BR 2 BR 3 BR
Average Market Rent $970 $1,105 $1,450
Proposed 40% AMI Rent $515 $616 $697
Advantage ($) $455 $489 $753
Advantage (%) 88.3% 79.4% 108.0%
Total Units 18 30 12
Proposed 60% AMI Rent $820 $987 $1,122
Advantage ($) $150 $118 $328
Advantage (%) 18.3% 12.0% 29.2%
Total Units 18 30 12
Proposed 80% AMI Rent $969 $1,104 $1,387
Advantage ($) $1 $1 $63
Advantage (%) 0.1% 0.1% 4.5%
Total Units 18 30 12
Overall Advantage 35.4%
Source: Phone Survey, RPRG, Inc. July 2020
River's Edge
Bed Bath
Income
Target
Quantity
1 1 60% 72
2 2 60% 72
3 2 60% 12
Total 156
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
Page 53
G. Existing Low Income Rental Housing
Five LIHTC communities are inside the Farmington Hills Market Area including three general
occupancy and two age-restricted communities; one general occupancy LIHTC community (Rock
Springs) is deeply subsidized through the USDA Rural Development program (Table 34). Both general
occupancy LIHTC communities without deep subsidies were included in our competitive survey; we
were unable to contact Rock Springs following repeated attempts to reach management. Age-
restricted communities were excluded from our survey given a difference in target markets when
compared to the general occupancy subject property. One general occupancy LIHTC community
(River’s Edge) and an age restricted LIHTC community (Wimberly Manor) are proposed in the market
area. The remaining community (Winder Woods) is deeply subsidized through the USDA Rural
Development program. The location of all affordable rental communities is shown in Map 7.
Table 34 Affordable Communities, Farmington Hills Market Area
Map 7 Affordable Rental Communities
Community Subsidy Type Address City Distance
Farmington Hills LIHTC Family 801 Haymon Morris Rd. Winder 0.1 mile
River's Edge LIHTC Family 1395 Winder Hwy. Decula 11.2 miles
The Exchange LIHTC Family 839 Exchange Cir. Bethlehem 2.5 miles
Autry Pines Senior Village LIHTC Senior 144 Autry Rd. Auburn 7 miles
MainStreet Winder LIHTC Senior 454 Jefferson Hwy. Winder 7.3 miles
Wimberly Manor LIHTC Senior 165 E Wright St. Winder 6.5 miles
Rock Springs LIHTC/USDA Family 187 S Broad St. Winder 4.4 miles
Winder Woods USDA Family 206 2nd St. Winder 5.9 miles
Allocated or Applied for Low Income Housing Tax Credits and has yet to start construction
Source: HUD, USDA, GA DCA
Farmington Hills III | Competitive Rental Analysis
Page 54
H. Impact of Abandoned, Vacant, or Foreclosed Homes
Based on field observations, limited abandoned / vacant single and multi-family homes exist in the
Farmington Hills Market Area. In addition, to understand the state of foreclosure in the community
around the subject site, we tapped data available through RealtyTrac, a web site aimed primarily at
assisting interested parties in the process of locating and purchasing properties in foreclosure and at
risk of foreclosure. RealtyTrac classifies properties in its database into several different categories,
among them three that are relevant to our analysis: 1.) pre-foreclosure property – a property with
loans in default and in danger of being repossessed or auctioned, 2.) auction property – a property
that lien holders decide to sell at public auctions, once the homeowner’s grace period has expired, in
order to dispose of the property as quickly as possible, and 3.) bank-owned property – a unit that has
been repossessed by lenders. We included properties within these three foreclosure categories in
our analysis. We queried the RealtyTrac database for ZIP code 30680 in which the subject property
will be located and the broader areas of Winder, Barrow County, Georgia, and the United States for
comparison purposes.
Our RealtyTrac search revealed May 2020 foreclosure rates of 0.08 percent in the subject property’s
ZIP Code (30680) and Winder, 0.09 percent in Barrow County, and 0.01 percent in Georgia and the
nation (Table 35). Monthly foreclosures in the subject site’s ZIP Code ranged from none to 13 units
over the past year (Table 36).
While the conversion of foreclosure properties can affect the demand for new multi-family rental
housing in some markets, the impact on an affordable housing community is typically limited due to
their tenant rent and income restrictions. Furthermore, current foreclosure activity in the subject
site’s ZIP Code was not significant over the past year. As such, we do not believe foreclosed,
abandoned, or vacant single/multi-family homes will impact the subject property’s ability to lease its
units.
Table 35 Foreclosure Rate, ZIP Code 30680, May 2020
Table 36 Recent Foreclosure Activity, ZIP Code 30680
Geography
May 2020
Foreclosure Rate
ZIP Code: 30680 0.08%
Winder 0.08%
Barrow County 0.09%
Georgia 0.01%
National 0.01%
Source: Realtytrac.com
0.08% 0.08%
0.09%
0.01% 0.01%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
ZIP Code: 30680
Month
# of
Foreclosures
June 2019 3
July 2019 4
August 2019 10
September 2019 8
October 2019 7
November 2019 5
December 2019 9
January 2020 10
February 2020 13
March 2020 13
April 2020 0
May 2020 0
Source: Realtytrac.com
3
4
10
8
7
5
9
10
13
13
0
0
0
10
20
30
Properties
Farmington Hills III | Findings and Conclusions
Page 55
10. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS
A. Key Findings
Based on the preceding review of the subject project and demographic and competitive housing
trends in the Farmington Hills Market Area, RPRG offers the following key findings:
1. Site and Neighborhood Analysis
The subject site is a suitable location for affordable rental housing as it is compatible with surrounding
land uses and has access to amenities, services, employers, and transportation arteries.
The subject site is on the north side of Haymon Morris Road, adjacent to the second phase of
Farmington Hills. Surrounding land uses are compatible with affordable rental housing
including primarily well-maintained single-family detached homes and the first two phases of
the subject property. The subject’s designated schools are grouped within one mile to the
west of the site and a concentration of commercial uses including Barrow Crossing (shopping
destination) are within one mile to the east.
Neighborhood amenities are convenient to the site including shopping, a convenience store,
a grocery store, a pharmacy, and schools within one mile while medical facilities and
additional shopping opportunities are within 2.5 miles. Barrow Crossing offers retailers
including Target, TJ Maxx, PetSmart, and Belk within one mile.
The site is within one-half mile of State Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29 which connects the site
to the region including Athens to the east and the Atlanta Metro Area to the west. State
Highway 81 is just east of the site and provides access to downtown Winder roughly five miles
to the north while Interstate 85 is within 15 miles north of the site and Interstate 20 is roughly
28 miles to the south.
The overall Farmington Hills development has visibility from Haymon Morris Road. The first
two phases of the subject property are fully occupied indicating sufficient visibility.
RPRG did not identify any adjacent land uses that would negatively impact the proposed
development’s viability in the marketplace. The site will appeal to households living and
working throughout the region.
2. Economic Context
Barrow County’s economy is performing well with job growth in seven of the past eight years and a
decreasing unemployment rate that is lower than the state rate.
The county’s unemployment rate dropped in each of the past nine years to a low 2.8 percent
in 2019 which is below both state (3.4 percent) and national (3.7 percent) rates. Barrow
County’s unemployment rate has been below the state rate since 2011.
Barrow County added jobs in seven of the past eight years with the net addition of 5,486 jobs
since 2012, roughly 2.7 times the jobs lost during the recession-era (2008-2011), reaching an
all-time high At-Place Employment in 2019. The county added an annual average of 804 jobs
over the past three years.
Trade-Transportation-Utilities is the largest sector in the county by far accounting for 32.9
percent of jobs compared to 18.6 percent of jobs nationally. The Government,
Manufacturing, Education-Health, and Leisure-Hospitality sectors each account for roughly
10-15 percent of the county’s jobs.
Commuting data suggests that the residents of the Farmington Hills Market Area work
throughout the region with more than half of workers employed outside their county of
residence.
Farmington Hills III | Findings and Conclusions
Page 56
RPRG did not identify any major job expansions or contractions in Barrow County over the
past two years.
3. Population and Household Trends
The Farmington Hills Market Area grew significantly from 2000 to 2010; growth slowed but remained
strong from 2010 to 2020. Growth is expected to remain strong over the next two years.
The Farmington Hills Market Area added 21,967 net people (52.5 percent) and 6,757
households (45.8 percent) from 2000 to 2010; annual growth was 2,197 people (4.3 percent)
and 676 households (3.8 percent) over this period. Annual growth over the past 10 years was
1,718 people (2.4 percent) and 556 households (2.3 percent), reaching 80,988 people and
27,055 households in 2020.
Annual growth in the Farmington Hills Market Area is expected to remain strong from 2020
to 2022 at 1,736 people (2.1 percent) and 567 households (2.1 percent).
4. Demographic Analysis
The Farmington Hills Market Area household base is younger, less likely to rent, and included a larger
proportion of households with children when compared to the Bi-County Market Area.
The median age of the Farmington Hills Market Area’s population is 35 years with Adults ages
35 to 61 representing the largest population age cohort in the market area at 35.6 percent
while 29.0 percent of the population are Children/Youth under 20 years old. Young Adults
ages 20 to 34 comprise 20.3 percent of the Farmington Hills Market Area’s population while
Seniors ages 62 and older account for 15.1 percent.
Approximately 82 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area households were multi-person
households including 45.0 percent of households with children. Single-person households
accounted for 17.9 percent of Farmington Hills Market Area households.
Roughly 23 percent of households in the Farmington Hills Market Area rent in 2020 compared
to 27.4 percent in the Bi-County Market Area. The market area added 2,878 net renter
households over the past 20 years accounting for 23.4 percent of net household growth. Esri
projects renter households to account for 19.0 percent of net household growth over the next
two years with the net addition of 215 renter households.
The Farmington Hills Market Area includes a range or renter households by size with 46.0
percent having one or two people, 34.9 percent having three or four people, and 19.0 percent
having five people.
The 2020 median household income in the Farmington Hills Market Area is $66,718 which is
similar to the $67,083 median in the Bi-County Market Area. RPRG estimates that the median
income of renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area is $47,083. One-third of
renter households in the Farmington Hills Market Area earn less than $35,000 including 22.7
percent earning less than $25,000 while 37.2 percent earn moderate incomes of $35,000 to
$74,999.
5. Competitive Housing Analysis
RPRG surveyed seven multi-family rental communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area including
two LIHTC communities. The rental market is performing well with limited vacancies including at LIHTC
communities.
The surveyed communities have nine vacancies among 539 combined units for an aggregate
vacancy rate of 1.7 percent. Five of seven communities are fully occupied including the first
Farmington Hills III | Findings and Conclusions
Page 57
two phases of the subject property (Farmington Hills – LIHTC). The remaining LIHTC
community (The Exchange) has five vacancies among 130 units for a vacancy rate of 3.8
percent.
Among the surveyed communities, net rents, unit sizes, and rents per square foot were as
follows:
o One-bedroom effective rents average $751 per month. The average one-bedroom
unit size is 801 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.94.
o Two-bedroom effective rents average $845 per month. The average two-bedroom
unit size is 1,078 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.78.
o Three-bedroom effective rents average $1,056 per month. The average three-
bedroom unit size is 1,318 square feet, resulting in a net rent per square foot of $0.80.
Sixty percent AMI LIHTC rents at both LIHTC communities are among the existing market rate
rents in the market area and the market rate rents at The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC
community) are the highest rents in the market area by a wide margin.
The “average market rent” is $970 for one-bedroom units, $1,105 for two-bedroom units, and
$1,450 for three-bedroom units. The proposed 40 percent AMI rents have rent advantages
of at least 79 percent and the proposed 60 percent AMI rents have rent advantages of at least
12.0 percent. All proposed 80 percent AMI rents are below average market rents. The
project’s overall weighted average rent advantage is 35.4 percent.
One comparable general occupancy LIHTC community was identified as proposed (River’s
Edge) in the Farmington Hills Market Area. River’s Edge recently applied for four percent tax
credits for 156 units targeting households earning up to 60 percent AMI just inside the market
area in the Dacula area. This community will be directly comparable to the subject property.
One age restricted LIHTC community (Wimberly Manor) received an allocation of nine percent
tax credits for 73 units in Winder but this community will not be comparable to the subject
property given a difference in age targeting.
B. Product Evaluation
Considered in the context of the competitive environment, the relative position of Farmington Hills III
is as follows:
Site: The subject site is in a residential neighborhood and is acceptable for affordable rental
housing. Neighborhood amenities are convenient to the site including shopping, convenience
stores, a grocery store, a pharmacy, schools, and medical facilities within two miles; Barrow
Crossing is the area’s largest concentration of shopping and is within one mile east of the site.
Surrounding land uses are compatible with multi-family rental housing including well
maintained single-family detached homes and the first two phases of the subject property
(Farmington Hills); Farmington Hills is adjacent to the site and is fully occupied with a waiting
list. The site is just south of State Highway 316/U.S. Highway 29 which provides access to the
region including Athens to the east and the Atlanta Metro Area to the west. The subject site
is generally comparable to the location of nearly all surveyed communities in the market area
including both LIHTC communities; the site is superior to the location of Quail Valley Duplexes
in Auburn given proximity to major traffic arteries and neighborhood amenities.
Unit Distribution: The proposed unit mix at Farmington Hills III includes 54 one-bedroom
units (30 percent), 90 two-bedroom units (50 percent), and 36 three-bedroom units (20
percent). One, two, and three-bedroom units are common in the market area with both LIHTC
offering all three floor plans. The proposed unit mix is generally comparable to the existing
rental market which offers 18.6 percent one-bedroom units, 58.0 percent two-bedroom units,
and 23.5 percent three-bedroom units. Furthermore, the Affordability Analysis indicates
sufficient income qualified renter households will exist in the market area to support the
Farmington Hills III | Findings and Conclusions
Page 58
proposed unit mix and rents. The proposed unit distribution is acceptable and will be well
received in the market area.
Unit Size: The proposed unit sizes at Farmington Hills III are 800 square feet for one-bedroom
units, 1,000 square feet for two-bedroom units, and 1,200 square feet for three-bedroom
units. The proposed one-bedroom units are comparable to the market average of 801 square
feet while the proposed two and three-bedroom unit sizes are within 78-118 square feet of
market averages. The proposed unit sizes are acceptable given the new construction and
proposed unit features/community amenities that will result in a competitive advantage over
most surveyed communities. The proposed unit sizes will be well received by the target
market of very low to moderate-income renter households.
Unit Features: Farmington Hills III will offer a dishwasher, range/oven, refrigerator,
microwave, ceiling fans, and washer and dryer connections which is comparable to the
surveyed LIHTC communities including The Exchange which offers both LIHTC and market rate
units. The subject property’s unit features will be superior to most of the market rate
communities given only one of five of these communities offer a microwave. The proposed
unit features will be competitive in the market among both LIHTC and market rate
communities.
Community Amenities: Farmington Hills III will offer a clubhouse/community room, fitness
center, swimming pool, playground, business/computer center, and laundry facilities which is
comparable to the existing LIHTC communities in the market area including The Exchange
which offers the highest-priced market rate units in the market area. The proposed amenities
are far superior to those at the older market rate communities, most of which offer no
amenities. The subject’s amenities will be competitive with the LIHTC communities and will
result in a competitive advantage compared to existing market rate communities in the
market area.
Marketability: The subject property will offer an attractive product with unit features and
community amenities comparable to surveyed communities priced at the top of the market.
The new construction will be appealing to renters given the limited multi-family rental stock
built in the past 20 years in the Farmington Hills Market Area. The first two phases of the
subject property built roughly six to eight years ago are fully occupied with a waiting list and
offer a similar product to that proposed at Farmington Hills III.
C. Price Position
The proposed 40 percent AMI rents will be at or near the bottom of the market and the proposed 60
percent AMI rents are all below the 60 percent AMI rents at the newest LIHTC community in the
market area (The Exchange). The proposed 80 percent AMI rents are all below the market rate rents
at The Exchange (LIHTC) which is acceptable given the proposed 80 percent AMI units will target
similar income households as these market rate units and the proposed product/new construction
will position the subject property at the top of the market (Figure 9). Furthermore, the Affordability
Analysis indicates sufficient income qualified renter households will exist in the market area to fill the
proposed unit mix and rents. All proposed rents are acceptable and will be well received in the market
area.
Farmington Hills III | Findings and Conclusions
Page 59
Figure 9 Price Position
Farmington Hills III | Findings and Conclusions
Page 60
Farmington Hills III | Absorption and Stabilization Rates
Page 61
11. ABSORPTION AND STABILIZATION RATES
A. Absorption Estimate
The Exchange (mixed-income LIHTC community) opened in January 2018 and leased all 130 units by
August 2018 for an average monthly absorption of 18.6 units. In addition to the experience of this
community, absorption estimates are based on a variety of factors including:
The Farmington Hills Market Area is projected to add 1,134 net households from 2020 to 2022
including 215 renter households.
Roughly 3,300 renter households will be income-qualified for at least one of the proposed
units at the subject property resulting in a project-wide affordability capture rate of 5.5
percent.
All DCA demand capture rates overall and by floor plan are well within acceptable levels
including an overall capture rate of 14.7 percent, indicating sufficient demand for the units
proposed at the subject property and the comparable pipeline community.
The rental market in the Farmington Hills Market Area is strong with an overall vacancy rate
of 1.7 percent. The first two phases of the subject property (Farmington Hills) are fully
occupied with a waiting list while The Exchange (LIHTC) has five vacancies among 130 units
for a vacancy rate of 3.8 percent.
Farmington Hills III will offer a competitive product with the newest and highest-priced
community in the market area (The Exchange).
Based on the product to be constructed and the factors discussed above, we expect Farmington Hills
III units to lease-up at a rate of 18 units per month. At this rate, the subject property will reach a
stabilized occupancy of at least 93 percent within roughly nine to 10 months.
B. Impact on Existing and Pipeline Rental Market
Given the strong rental market in the Farmington Hills Market Area (including a waiting list at the first
phases of the subject property) and the projected renter household growth over the next two years,
we do not expect Farmington Hills III to have a negative impact on existing or proposed rental
communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area including those with tax credits.
Farmington Hills III | Interviews
Page 62
12. INTERVIEWS
Primary information gathered through field and phone interviews was used throughout the various
sections of this report. The interviewees included rental community property managers, Lydia
Skeppstrom with the Winder Planning Department, Dan Shultz with the Barrow County Planning and
Community Development Department, Susan Owen with the Gwinnett County Planning Department,
Michelle Yawn with the Winder Housing Authority, and staff with the City of Dacula.
Farmington Hills III | Conclusions and Recommendations
Page 63
13. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Based on projected household growth trends, affordability and demand estimates, rental market
conditions, and socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the Farmington Hills Market Area,
RPRG believes that the subject property will be able to successfully reach and maintain a stabilized
occupancy of at least 93 percent following its entrance into the rental market; the first two phases of
the subject property are fully occupied with a waiting list. The subject property will be competitively
positioned with existing rental communities in the Farmington Hills Market Area and the units will be
well received by the target market.
This market study was completed based on the most recent available data, which does not reflect the
potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on demographic and economic trends as well as housing
demand. At this stage, we do not believe demand for affordable rental housing will be reduced in the
long term due to economic losses related to COVID-19. Demand for rental housing, especially
affordable housing, is projected to increase over the next several years.
We recommend proceeding with the project as planned.
Brett Welborn Tad Scepaniak
Analyst Managing Principal
Income/Unit Size Income Limits
Units
Proposed
Renter Income
Qualification %
Total
Demand
Large Household
Size Adjustment
(3+ Persons)
Adjusted
Demand
Supply
Net
Demand
Capture
Rate
Average
Market Rent
Market
Rents Band
Proposed
Rents
40% AMI $21,257 - $35,760
One Bedroom Units 18 6.6% 182 182 0 182 9.9% $970 $970 $515
Two Bedroom Units 30 4.4% 121 121 0 121 24.8% $1,105 $1,105 $616
Three Bedroom Units 12 6.7% 185 54.0% 100 0 100 12.0% $1,450 $1,450 $697
60% AMI $31,714 - $53,640
One Bedroom Units 18 9.8% 271 271 72 199 9.0% $970 $970 $820
Two Bedroom Units 30 8.8% 243 243 72 171 17.6% $1,105 $1,105 $987
Three Bedroom Units 12 10.5% 290 54.0% 157 12 145 8.3% $1,450 $1,450 $1,122
80% AMI $36,823 - $71,520
One Bedroom Units 18 20.0% 550 550 0 550 3.3% $970 $970 $969
Two Bedroom Units 30 16.9% 466 466 0 466 6.4% $1,105 $1,105 $1,104
Three Bedroom Units 12 12.1% 334 54.0% 180 0 180 6.7% $1,450 $1,450 $1,387
By Bedroom
One Bedroom Units 54 36.4% 1,003 1,003 72 931 5.8%
Two Bedroom Units 90 26.8% 738 738 72 666 13.5%
Three Bedroom Units 36 29.0% 800 54.0% 432 12 420 8.6%
Project Total $21,257 - $71,520
40% AMI $21,257 - $35,760 60 16.4% 452 0 452 13.3%
60% AMI $31,714 - $53,640 60 26.3% 725 156 569 10.5%
80% AMI $36,823 - $71,520 60 32.2% 887 0 887 6.8%
Total Uni ts $21,257 - $71,520 180 50.1% 1,380 156 1,224 14.7%
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Page 64
14. APPENDIX 1 UNDERLYING ASSUMPTIONS AND
LIMITING CONDITIONS
In conducting the analysis, we will make the following assumptions, except as otherwise noted in our
report:
1. There are no zoning, building, safety, environmental or other federal, state or local laws,
regulations or codes which would prohibit or impair the development, marketing or operation of the
subject project in the manner contemplated in our report, and the subject project will be developed,
marketed and operated in compliance with all applicable laws, regulations and codes.
2. No material changes will occur in (a) any federal, state or local law, regulation or code (including,
without limitation, the Internal Revenue Code) affecting the subject project, or (b) any federal, state
or local grant, financing or other program which is to be utilized in connection with the subject project.
3. The local, national and international economies will not deteriorate, and there will be no
significant changes in interest rates or in rates of inflation or deflation.
4. The subject project will be served by adequate transportation, utilities and governmental
facilities.
5. The subject project will not be subjected to any war, energy crisis, embargo, strike, earthquake,
flood, fire or other casualty or act of God.
6. The subject project will be on the market at the time and with the product anticipated in our
report, and at the price position specified in our report.
7. The subject project will be developed, marketed and operated in a highly professional manner.
8. No projects will be developed which will be in competition with the subject project, except as set
forth in our report.
9. There are neither existing judgments nor any pending or threatened litigation, which could hinder
the development, marketing or operation of the subject project.
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 1 Underlying Assumptions and Limiting Conditions
Page 65
The analysis will be subject to the following limiting conditions, except as otherwise noted in our
report:
1. The analysis contained in this report necessarily incorporates numerous estimates and
assumptions with respect to property performance, general and local business and economic
conditions, the absence of material changes in the competitive environment and other matters. Some
estimates or assumptions, however, inevitably will not materialize, and unanticipated events and
circumstances may occur; therefore, actual results achieved during the period covered by our analysis
will vary from our estimates and the variations may be material.
2. Our absorption estimates are based on the assumption that the product recommendations set
forth in our report will be followed without material deviation.
3. All estimates of future dollar amounts are based on the current value of the dollar, without any
allowance for inflation or deflation.
4. We have no responsibility for considerations requiring expertise in other fields. Such
considerations include, but are not limited to, legal matters, environmental matters, architectural
matters, geologic considerations, such as soils and seismic stability, and civil, mechanical, electrical,
structural and other engineering matters.
5. Information, estimates and opinions contained in or referred to in our report, which we have
obtained from sources outside of this office, are assumed to be reliable and have not been
independently verified.
6. The conclusions and recommendations in our report are subject to these Underlying Assumptions
and Limiting Conditions and to any additional assumptions or conditions set forth in the body of our
report.
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 2 Analyst Certifications
Page 66
15. APPENDIX 2 ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS
I affirm that I have made a physical inspection of the market area and the subject property and that
information has been used in the full study of the need and demand for the proposed units. The
report was written according to DCA’s market study requirements, the information included is
accurate and the report can be relied upon by DCA as a true assessment of the low-income housing
rental market.
To the best of my knowledge, the market can support the project as shown in the study. I understand
that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in the denial of further participation in DCA’s
rental housing programs. I also affirm that I have no interest in the project or relationship with the
ownership entity and my compensation is not contingent on this project being funded.
DCA may rely on the representation made in the market study. The document is assignable to other
lenders.
__________________
Brett Welborn
Analyst
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
__________________
Connor Hild
Research Associate
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
Warning: Title 18 U.S.C. 1001, provides in part that whoever knowingly and willfully makes or uses a document containing
any false, fictitious, or fraudulent statement or entry, in any manner in the jurisdiction of any department or agency of the
United States, shall be fined not more than $10,000 or imprisoned for not more than five years or both.
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 3 NCHMA Certification
Page 67
16. APPENDIX 3 NCHMA CERTIFICATION
This market study has been prepared by Real Property Research Group, Inc., a member in good
standing of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA). This study has been prepared
in conformance with the standards adopted by NCHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These
standards include the Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used in Market Studies for Affordable
Housing Projects and Model Content Standards for the Content of Market Studies for Affordable
Housing Projects. These Standards are designed to enhance the quality of market studies and to make
them easier to prepare, understand, and use by market analysts and by the end users. These
Standards are voluntary only, and no legal responsibility regarding their use is assumed by the
National Council of Housing Market Analysts.
Real Property Research Group, Inc. is duly qualified and experienced in providing market analysis for
Affordable Housing. The company’s principals participate in NCHMA educational and information
sharing programs to maintain the highest professional standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. Real
Property Research Group, Inc. is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of Real
Property Research Group, Inc. has any financial interest whatsoever in the development for which this
analysis has been undertaken.
While the document specifies Real Property Research Group, Inc., the certification is always signed by
the individual completing the study and attesting to the certification.
Real Property Research Group, Inc.
____ Tad Scepaniak___ _
Name
_ __Managing Principal___ _
Title
________July 14, 2020 ______
Date
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 4 Analyst Resumes
Page 68
17. APPENDIX 4 ANALYST RESUMES
TAD SCEPANIAK
Managing Principal
Tad Scepaniak assumed the role of Real Property Research Group’s Managing Principal in November 2017
following more than 15 years with the firm. Tad has extensive experience conducting market feasibility
studies on a wide range of residential and mixed-use developments for developers, lenders, and
government entities. Tad directs the firm’s research and production of feasibility studies including large-
scale housing assessments to detailed reports for a specific project on a specific site. He has extensive
experience analyzing affordable rental communities developed under the Low Income Housing Tax Credit
(LIHTC) program and market-rate apartments developed under the HUD 221(d)(4) program and
conventional financing. Tad is the key contact for research contracts many state housing finance agencies,
including several that commission market studies for LIHTC applications.
Tad is Immediate Past Chair of the National Council of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and previously
served as National Chair, Vice Chair, and Co-Chair of Standards Committee. He has taken a lead role in
the development of the organization's Standard Definitions and Recommended Market Study Content,
and he has authored and co-authored white papers on market areas, derivation of market rents, and
selection of comparable properties. Tad is also a founding member of the Atlanta chapter of the Lambda
Alpha Land Economics Society.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Tax Credit Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has worked extensively with the Low
Income Tax Credit program throughout the United States, with special emphasis on the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Senior Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted feasibility analysis for a variety of senior oriented
rental housing. The majority of this work has been under the Low Income Tax Credit program;
however his experience includes assisted living facilities and market rate senior rental
communities.
Market Rate Rental Housing: Mr. Scepaniak has conducted various projects for developers of
market rate rental housing. The studies produced for these developers are generally used to
determine the rental housing needs of a specific submarket and to obtain financing.
Public Housing Authority Consultation: Tad has worked with Housing Authorities throughout the
United States to document trends rental and for sale housing market trends to better understand
redevelopment opportunities. He has completed studies examining development opportunities
for housing authorities through the Choice Neighborhood Initiative or other programs in Florida,
Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Tennessee.
Education:
Bachelor of Science – Marketing; Berry College – Rome, Georgia
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 4 Analyst Resumes
Page 69
ROBERT M. LEFENFELD
Founding Principal
Mr. Lefenfeld, Founding Principal of the firm, with over 30 years of experience in the field of residential
market research. Before founding Real Property Research Group in 2001, Bob served as an officer of
research subsidiaries of Reznick Fedder & Silverman and Legg Mason. Between 1998 and 2001, Bob was
Managing Director of RF&S Realty Advisors, conducting residential market studies throughout the United
States. From 1987 to 1995, Bob served as Senior Vice President of Legg Mason Realty Group, managing
the firm’s consulting practice and serving as publisher of a Mid-Atlantic residential data service, Housing
Market Profiles. Prior to joining Legg Mason, Bob spent ten years with the Baltimore Metropolitan Council
as a housing economist. Bob also served as Research Director for Regency Homes between 1995 and
1998, analyzing markets throughout the Eastern United States and evaluating the company’s active
building operation.
Bob provides input and guidance for the completion of the firm’s research and analysis products. He
combines extensive experience in the real estate industry with capabilities in database development and
information management. Over the years, he has developed a series of information products and
proprietary databases serving real estate professionals.
Bob has lectured and written extensively about residential real estate market analysis. Bob has created
and teaches the market study module for the MBA HUD Underwriting course and has served as an adjunct
professor for the Graduate Programs in Real Estate Development, School of Architecture, Planning and
Preservation, University of Maryland College Park. He is the past National Chair of the National Council
of Housing Market Analysts (NCHMA) and currently chairs its FHA Committee.
Areas of Concentration:
Strategic Assessments: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted numerous corridor analyses throughout the
United States to assist building and real estate companies in evaluating development
opportunities. Such analyses document demographic, economic, competitive, and proposed
development activity by submarket and discuss opportunities for development.
Feasibility Analysis: Mr. Lefenfeld has conducted feasibility studies for various types of residential
developments for builders and developers. Subjects for these analyses have included for-sale
single-family and townhouse developments, age-restricted rental and for-sale developments,
large multi-product PUDs, urban renovations and continuing care facilities for the elderly.
Information Products: Bob has developed a series of proprietary databases to assist clients in
monitoring growth trends. Subjects of these databases have included for sale housing, pipeline
information, and rental communities.
Education:
Master of Urban and Regional Planning; The George Washington University.
Bachelor of Arts - Political Science; Northeastern University.
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 4 Analyst Resumes
Page 70
BRETT WELBORN
Analyst
Brett Welborn entered the field of Real Estate Market Research in 2008, joining Real Property
Research Group’s (RPRG) Atlanta office as a Research Associate upon college graduation. During
Brett’s time as a Research Associate, he gathered economic, demographic, and competitive data for
market feasibility analyses and other consulting projects completed by the firm. Through his
experience, Brett progressed to serve as Analyst for RPRG for the past five years and has conducted
market studies for LIHTC and market rate communities.
Areas of Concentration:
Low Income Housing Tax Credit Rental Housing: Brett has worked with the Low Income
Housing Tax Credit program, evaluating general occupancy and senior oriented developments
for State allocating agencies, lenders, and developers. His work with the LIHTC program has
spanned a range of project types, including newly constructed communities and
rehabilitations.
Market Rate Rental Housing – Brett has conducted projects for developers of market rate
rental housing. The studies produced for these developers are generally used to determine
the rental housing needs of a specific submarket and to obtain financing.
Education:
Bachelor of Business Administration – Real Estate; University of Georgia, Athens, GA
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist
Page 71
18. APPENDIX 5 DCA CHECKLIST
A. Executive Summary
1. Project Description:
i. Brief description of the project location including address and/or position
relative to the closest cross-street...............................................................................................Page(s) 1
ii. Construction and Occupancy Types .....................................................................................Page(s) 1
iii. Unit mix, including bedrooms, bathrooms, square footage, Income targeting,
rents, and utility allowance ..........................................................................................................Page(s) 1
iv. Any additional subsidies available, including project based rental assistance
(PBRA) ........................................................................................................................................Page(s) 1
v. Brief description of proposed amenities and how they compare with existing
properties ....................................................................................................................................Page(s) 1-2
2. Site Description/Evaluation:
i. A brief description of physical features of the site and adjacent parcels.....................................Page(s) 2
ii. A brief overview of the neighborhood land composition (residential,
commercial, industrial, agricultural).............................................................................................Page(s) 2
iii. A discussion of site access and visibility ..................................................................................... Page(s) 2
iv. Any significant positive or negative aspects of the subject site................................................... Page(s) 2
v. A brief summary of the site’s proximity to neighborhood services including
shopping, medical care, employment concentrations, public transportation, etc ........................ Page(s) 2
vi. A brief discussion discussion of public safety, including comments on local
perceptions, maps, or statistics of crime in the area ..................................................................Page(s) 2
vii. An overall conclusion of the site’s appropriateness for the proposed
development................................................................................................................................Page(s) 2
3. Market Area Definition:
i. A brief definition of the primary market area (PMA) including boundaries and
their approximate distance from the subject property .................................................................Page(s) 2-3
4. Community Demographic Data:
i. Current and projected household and population counts for the PMA........................................Page(s) 3
ii. Household tenure including any trends in rental rates. ...............................................................Page(s) 3
iii. Household income level. .............................................................................................................Page(s) 3
iv. Impact of foreclosed, abandoned / vacant, single and multi-family homes, and
commercial properties in the PMA of the proposed development...............................................Page(s) 4
5. Economic Data:
i. Trends in employment for the county and/or region....................................................................Page(s) 4
ii. Employment by sector for the primary market area. ................................................................... Page(s) 4
iii. Unemployment trends for the county and/or region for the past five years................................. Page(s) 4
iv. Brief discussion of recent or planned employment contractions or expansions.......................Page(s) 4
v. Overall conclusion regarding the stability of the county’s economic environment.. ....................Page(s) 4
6. Project Specific Affordability and Demand Analysis:
i. Number of renter households income qualified for the proposed development
given retention of current tenants (rehab only), the proposed unit mix, income
targeting, and rents. For senior projects, this should be age and income
qualified renter households. ........................................................................................................Page(s) 4-5
ii. Overall estimate of demand based on DCA’s demand methodology..........................................Page(s) 4-5
iii. Capture rates for the proposed development including the overall project, all
LIHTC units (excluding any PBRA or market rate units), by AMI, by bedroom
type, and a conclusion regarding the achievability of these capture rates..................................Page(s) 4-5
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist
Page 72
7. Competitive Rental Analysis
i. An analysis of the competitive properties in the PMA. ............................................................... Page(s) 5
ii. Number of properties...................................................................................................................Page(s) 5
iii. Rent bands for each bedroom type proposed.............................................................................Page(s) 5
iv. Average market rents..................................................................................................................Page(s) 5
8. Absorption/Stabilization Estimate:
i. An estimate of the number of units expected to be leased at the subject
property, on average, per month.................................................................................................Page(s) 6
ii. Number of months required for the project to stabilize at 93% occupancy. ................................Page(s) 6
9. Overall Conclusion:
i. Overall conclusion regarding potential for success of the proposed
development................................................................................................................................Page(s) 6
10. Summary Table...................................................................................................................................Page(s) 6-7
B. Project Description
1. Project address and location...............................................................................................................Page(s) 10
2. Construction type. ............................................................................................................................... Page(s) 10
3. Occupancy Type. ................................................................................................................................Page(s) 10
4. Special population target (if applicable). .............................................................................................Page(s) N/A
5. Number of units by bedroom type and income targeting (AMI)...........................................................Page(s) 11
6. Unit size, number of bedrooms, and structure type. ........................................................................... Page(s) 11
7. Rents and Utility Allowances...............................................................................................................Page(s) 11
8. Existing or proposed project based rental assistance. ........................................................................Page(s) 11
9. Proposed development amenities....................................................................................................... Page(s) 11
10. For rehab proposals, current occupancy levels, rents being charged, and tenant
incomes, if available, as well as detailed information with regard to the scope of
work planned. Scopes of work should include an estimate of the total and per unit
construction cost.. ...............................................................................................................................Page(s) N/A
11. Projected placed-in-service date......................................................................................................... Page(s) 12
C. Site Evaluation
1. Date of site / comparables visit and name of site inspector. ...............................................................Page(s) 8
2. Physical features of the site and adjacent parcel, including positive and negative
attributes ...............................................................................................................................................Page(s) 13-16
3. The site’s physical proximity to surrounding roads, transportation (including bus
stops), amenities, employment, and community services...................................................................Page(s) 18-22
4. Labeled photographs of the subject property (front, rear and side elevations, on- site
amenities, interior of typical units, if available), of the neighborhood, and street
scenes with a description of each vantage point......................................................................Page(s) 14, 16
5. A map clearly identifying the project and proximity to neighborhood amenities. A
listing of the closest shopping areas, schools, employment centers, medical facilities
and other amenities that would be important to the target population and the
proximity in miles to each. .................................................................................................................. Page(s) 21
6. The land use and structures of the area immediately surrounding the site including
significant concentrations of residential, commercial, industrial, vacant, or
agricultural uses; comment on the condition of these existing land uses. ..........................................Page(s) 15
7. Any public safety issues in the area, including local perceptions of crime, crime
statistics, or other relevant information. .............................................................................................Page(s) 17
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist
Page 73
8. A map identifying existing low-income housing: 4% & 9% tax credit, tax exempt
bond, Rural Development, Public Housing, DCA HOME funded, Sec. 1602 Tax
Credit Exchange program, USDA financed, Georgia Housing Trust Fund of the
Homeless financed properties, and HUD 202 or 811 and Project Based Rental
Assistance (PBRA). Indicate proximity in miles of these properties to the proposed
site.......................................................................................................................................................Page(s) 53
9. Road or infrastructure improvements planned or under construction in the PMA............................... Page(s) 19
10. Vehicular and pedestrian access, ingress/egress, and visibility of site............................................... Page(s) 18-19
11. Overall conclusions about the subject site, as it relates to the marketability of the
proposed development........................................................................................................................Page(s) 22
D. Market Area
1. Definition of the primary market area (PMA) including boundaries and their
approximate distance from the subject site........................................................................................Page(s) 23
2. Map Identifying subject property’s location within market area...........................................................Page(s) 24
E. Community Demographic Data
1. Population Trends
i. Total Population. ......................................................................................................................... Page(s) 25
ii. Population by age group. ............................................................................................................Page(s) 27
iii. Number of elderly and non-elderly. .............................................................................................Page(s) N/A
iv. If a special needs population is proposed, provide additional information on
population growth patterns specifically related to the population. ...............................................Page(s) N/A
2. Household Trends
i. Total number of households and average household size. Page(s) 25
ii. Household by tenure (If appropriate, breakout by elderly and non-elderly). ...............................Page(s) 29-29
iii. Households by income. (Elderly proposals should reflect the income
distribution of elderly households only). ............................................................................Page(s) 31-31
iv. Renter households by number of persons in the household.......................................................Page(s) 30
F. Employment Trends
1. Total jobs in the county or region. .......................................................................................................Page(s) 35
2. Total jobs by industry – numbers and percentages. ........................................................................... Page(s) 36
3. Major current employers, product or service, total employees, anticipated
expansions/contractions, as well as newly planned employers and their impact on
employment in the market area......................................................................................................... Page(s) 37
4. Unemployment trends, total workforce figures, and number and percentage
unemployed for the county over the past 10 years. .......................................................................... Page(s) 33
5. Map of the site and location of major employment concentrations. .................................................. Page(s) 38
6. Analysis of data and overall conclusions relating to the impact on housing demand........................Page(s) 38
G. Project-specific Affordability and Demand Analysis
1. Income Restrictions / Limits. .............................................................................................................Page(s) 40
2. Affordability estimates. ...................................................................................................................... Page(s) 40
3. Demand
i. Demand from new households.................................................................................................. Page(s) 43
ii. Demand from existing households. ........................................................................................... Page(s) 43
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist
Page 74
iii. Elderly Homeowners likely to convert to rentership. .................................................................Page(s) N/A
iv. Net Demand and Capture Rate Calculations ........................................................................... Page(s) 43-43
H. Competitive Rental Analysis (Existing Competitive Rental Environment
1. Detailed project information for each competitive rental community surveyed
i. Name and address of the competitive property development...................................................Page(s) App. 6
ii. Name, title, and phone number of contact person and date contact was made. ...................... Page(s) App. 6
iii. Description of property. ............................................................................................................. Page(s) App. 6
iv. Photographs. ............................................................................................................................. Page(s) App. 6
v. Square footages for each competitive unit type. ......................................................Page(s) 50, App. 6
vi. Monthly rents and the utilities included in the rents of each unit type. ...................................... Page(s) 48, 50,
App. 8
vii. Project age and current physical condition................................................................................Page(s) 47,
App. 8
viii. Concessions given if any........................................................................................................... Page(s) 47
ix. Current vacancy rates, historic vacancy factors, waiting lists, and turnover
rates, broken down by bedroom size and structure type........................................................... Page(s) 47
x. Number of units receiving rental assistance, description of assistance as
project or tenant based. ............................................................................................................Page(s) App. 6
xi. Lease-up history ....................................................................................................................... Page(s) 48
Additional rental market information
1. An analysis of the vouchers available in the Market Area, including if vouchers
go unused and whether waitlisted households are income-qualified and when
the list was last updated. . ...........................................................................................................Page(s) 52
2. If the proposed development represents an additional phase of an existing
housing development, include a tenant profile and information on a waiting list
of the existing phase. .................................................................................................................. Page(s) App. 6
3. A map showing the competitive projects and all LIHTC and Bond proposed
projects which have received tax credit allocations within the market area.. ..............................Page(s) 46, 53
4. An assessment as to the quality and compatibility of the proposed amenities to
what is currently available in the market. ....................................................................................Page(s) 58
5. Consider tenancy type. If comparable senior units do not exist in the PMA,
provide an overview of family-oriented properties, or vice versa. Account for
differences in amenities, unit sizes, and rental levels. ................................................................Page(s) N/A
6. Provide the name, address/location, name of owner, number of units, unit
configuration, rent structure, estimated date of market entry, and any other
relevant market analysis information of developments in the planning,
rehabilitation, or construction stages. If there are none, provide a statement to
that effect.....................................................................................................................................Page(s) 52
7. Provide documentation and diagrams on how the projected initial rents for the
project compare to the rental range for competitive projects within the PMA and
provide an average market rent for each of the proposed unit types..........................................Page(s) 51, 58
8. Comment on any other DCA funded projects located outside of the primary
area, but located within a reasonable distance from the proposed project.. ...............................Page(s) N/A
9. Rental trends in the PMA for the last five years including average occupancy
trends and projection for the next two years. ................................................................................... N/A
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 5 DCA Checklist
Page 75
10. Impact of foreclosed, abandoned, and vacant single and multi-family homes as
well commercial properties in the market area............................................................................Page(s) 54
11. Note whether the proposed project would adversely impact the occupancy and
health of existing properties financed by Credits, USDA, HUD 202, or 811 (as
appropriate), DCA or locally financed HOME properties, Sec. 1602 Tax Credit
Exchange program, HTF, and HUD 221(d)(3) and HUD 221 (d) (4) and other
market rate FHA insured properties (not including public housing properties)............................ Page(s) 61
I. Absorption and Stabilization Rates
1. Anticipated absorption rate of the subject property............................................................................. Page(s) 61
2. Stabilization period..............................................................................................................................Page(s) 61
J. Interviews................................................................................................................................................... Page(s) 62
K. Conclusions and Recommendations .....................................................................................................Page(s) 63
L. Signed Statement Requirements.............................................................................................................Page(s) App 2
Farmington Hills III | Appendix 6 Rental Community Profiles
Page 76
19. APPENDIX 6 RENTAL COMMUNITY PROFILES
Community Address City Date Surveyed Phone Number
Brookwood TH 124 2nd st. Winder 7/15/2020 678-425-2159
Hillcrest 490 Gainesville Hwy. Winder 7/15/2020 770-307-0224
Lily Drive Lily Drive Winder 7/15/2020 770-867-4007
Winder Villas 291 Apperson Drive Winder 7/15/2020 770-480-6983
Farmington Hills 1506 Farmington Way Winder 7/15/2020 770-963-5018
Quail Valley Duplexes 275 Carter Rd. Winder 7/15/2020 678-871-0839
The Exchange 839 Exchange Cir. Bethlehem 7/15/2020 770-847-7117
RealProperty Group
Research
Brookwood TH
Multifamily Community Profile
124 2nd st.
Winder,GA
Property Manager:
Mabry Real Estate
Opened in 1998
CommunityType:
Market Rate - General
70 Units
Structure Type:
2-Story Townhouse
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
--
--
$905
--
$1,103
--
--
--
--
1,143
--
1,427
--
--
--
--
$0.79
--
$0.77
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Electric
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
5.7% Vacant (4 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
Dishwasher; Disposal; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;
Patio/Balcony; Storage (In Unit)
Select Units:
--
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
5.7%7/15/20 -- $905
$1,103
0.0%3/28/16 -- $625
$730
--6/6/12 -- --
--
2.9%5/27/11 -- --
--
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
2 1.5Townhouse $850 1,140 Market$.75--
--
2 2.5Townhouse $900 1,145 Market$.79----
3 1.5Townhouse $1,000 1,400 Market$.71----
3 2.5Townhouse $1,150 1,440 Market$.80----
3 2Townhouse $1,055 1,440 Market$.73----
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-015718Brookwood TH
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
RealProperty Group
Research
Farmington Hills
Multifamily Community Profile
1506 Farmington Way
Winder,GA 30680
Property Manager:
TBG Residential
Opened in 2012
CommunityType:
LIHTC - General
144 Units
Structure Type:
Garden
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
$743
--
$890
--
$976
--
--
829
--
1,094
--
1,286
--
--
$0.90
--
$0.81
--
$0.76
--
--
18.1%
--
48.6%
--
33.3%
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Electric
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ice Maker; Ceiling Fan; In Unit
Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C
Select Units:
Patio/Balcony
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
Waiting list of 8+ months.
First phase built in 2012 and the second phase built in 2014.
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
0.0%7/15/20 $743 $890
$976
0.0%6/12/18 $697 $844
$926
0.0%11/27/17 $620 $755
$846
0.0%5/22/17 $620 $755
$846
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
1 1Garden $645 829 LIHTC/ 50%$.788
--
1 1Garden $765 829 LIHTC/ 60%$.9218--
2 2Garden $755 1,094 LIHTC/ 50%$.698--
2 2Garden $885 1,094 LIHTC/ 60%$.8162--
3 2Garden $855 1,286 LIHTC/ 50%$.666--
3 2Garden $965 1,286 LIHTC/ 60%$.7542
--
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-019796Farmington Hills
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
RealProperty Group
Research
Hillcrest
Multifamily Community Profile
490 Gainesville Hwy.
Winder,GA
Property Manager:
--
Opened in 1989
CommunityType:
Market Rate - General
102 Units
Structure Type:
Garden/TH
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
$750
--
$938
--
$1,200
--
--
700
--
1,013
--
1,100
--
--
$1.07
--
$0.93
--
$1.09
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Electric
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
Dishwasher; Microwave; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups);
Central A/C; Patio/Balcony
Select Units:
Fireplace
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
25 1BRs, 67 2BRs, 10 3BRs.
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
0.0%7/15/20 $750 $938
$1,200
3.9%8/15/19 $700 $875
$1,050
0.0%6/12/18 $700 $842
$1,000
4.9%11/27/17 $700 $792
$925
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
1 1Garden $750 700 Market$1.07--
--
2 1.5Townhouse $975 1,100 Market$.89----
2 1.5Townhouse $975 1,200 Market$.81----
2 1Garden $850 850 Market$1.00----
2 1.5Townhouse $950 900 Market$1.06----
3 1SF Detached $1,200 1,100 Market$1.09--
--
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-015719Hillcrest
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
RealProperty Group
Research
Lily Drive
Multifamily Community Profile
Lily Dr. & Springdale Rd.
Winder,GA
Property Manager:
--
Opened in 1997
CommunityType:
Market Rate - General
9 Units
Structure Type:
Townhouse
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
--
--
$785
--
--
--
--
--
--
1,175
--
--
--
--
--
--
$0.67
--
--
--
--
--
--
100.0%
--
--
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Electric
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
Dishwasher; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C;
Patio/Balcony
Select Units:
--
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
FKA Ivey Corners & Lily Drive
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
0.0%7/15/20 -- $785
--
22.2%5/29/15 -- --
--
111.1%
2/6/14 -- --
--
0.0%6/5/12 -- --
--
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
-- -- -- -- ------
--
2 2Townhouse $785 1,175 Market$.679--
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-015721Lily Drive
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
RealProperty Group
Research
Quail Valley Duplexes
Multifamily Community Profile
275 Carter Rd.
Auburn,GA
Property Manager:
--
Opened in 1985
CommunityType:
Market Rate - General
20 Units
Structure Type:
Duplex
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
--
--
$630
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
--
100.0%
--
--
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Electric
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony
Select Units:
--
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
0.0%7/15/20 -- $630
--
0.0%3/28/16 -- $530
--
5.0%2/6/14 -- --
--
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
2 1.5Duplex $600 -- Market--20
--
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-019800Quail Valley Duplexes
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
RealProperty Group
Research
The Exchange
Multifamily Community Profile
839 Exchange Cir.
Bethlehem,GA 30620
Property Manager:
--
Opened in 2018
CommunityType:
LIHTC - General
130 Units
Structure Type:
Garden/TH
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
$789
--
$940
--
$1,159
--
--
815
--
1,100
--
1,350
--
--
$0.97
--
$0.85
--
$0.86
--
--
27.7%
--
32.3%
--
40.0%
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Electric
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
3.8% Vacant (5 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-
ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony
Select Units:
--
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
Opened January 2018 and leased up in August 2018.
All vacancies are LIHTC units. Management stated market rate units are in high demand.
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
3.8%7/15/20 $789 $940
$1,159
2.3%1/9/20 $767 $913
$1,120
3.1%5/30/19 $765 $913
$1,120
10.0%6/20/18* $727 $868
$1,058
* Indicates initial lease-up.
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
1 1Garden $970 815 Market$1.191
--
1 1Garden $562 815 LIHTC/ 50%$.698--
1 1Garden $830 815 LIHTC/ 60%$1.0227--
2 2Garden $1,105 1,100 Market$1.002--
2 2Garden $662 1,100 LIHTC/ 50%$.6010--
2 2Garden $994 1,100 LIHTC/ 60%$.9030
--
3 2Garden $736 1,317 LIHTC/ 50%$.568
--
3 2Garden $1,134 1,317 LIHTC/ 60%$.8634
--
3 2.5Townhouse $1,450 1,490 Market$.9710
--
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-028575The Exchange
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
RealProperty Group
Research
Winder Villas
Multifamily Community Profile
291 Apperson Drive
Winder,GA 30680
Property Manager:
--
Opened in 1983
Last Major Rehab in 2017
CommunityType:
Market Rate - General
64 Units
Structure Type:
2-Story Garden/TH
Owner:
--
Historic Vacancy & Eff. Rent (1)
Bedroom
Avg $/SqFtAvg SqFt%Total Avg Rent
Eff
One
Two
Three
Four+
One/Den
Two/Den
--
--
--
$892
--
--
--
--
--
--
881
--
--
--
--
--
--
$1.01
--
--
--
--
--
--
100.0%
--
--
--
Utilities in Rent:
Heat:
Heat Fuel:
Natural Gas
Hot Water:
Cooking:
Electricity:
Wtr/Swr:
Trash:
Community Amenities
Clubhouse:
Comm Rm:
Centrl Lndry:
Fitness:
Hot Tub:
Sauna:
Pool-Outdr:
Playground:
Basketball:
Tennis:
Volleyball:
CarWash:
BusinessCtr:
ComputerCtr:
Floorplans (Published Rents as of 7/15/2020) (2)
Elevator:
0.0% Vacant (0 units vacant) as of 7/15/2020
Features
Standard:
Ceiling Fan; In Unit Laundry (Hook-ups); Central A/C; Patio/Balcony
Select Units:
Dishwasher
Optional($):
--
Incentives:
None
Security:
--
Unit Mix & Effective Rent (1)
Adjustments to Rent
Parking 1:
Free Surface Parking
Comments
Stainless appliances and laminate hardwood flooring.
Parking 2:
--
Fee:
--
Fee:
--
Date %Vac 1BR $ 2BR $ 3BR $
0.0%7/15/20 -- $892
--
0.0%1/9/20 -- $892
--
0.0%8/15/19 -- $862
--
0.0%6/12/18 -- $808
--
Description BRs Bath Rent SqFt Program
Rent/SF
#UnitsFeature
2 1Garden $879 860 Market$1.0248
--
2 1.5Townhouse $929 944 Market$.9816--
© 2020 Real Property Research Group, Inc.
GA013-017140Winder Villas
(1) Effective Rent is Published Rent, net of concessions and assumes that water, sewer and trash is included in rent
(2) Published Rent is rent as quoted by management.
