Ascertainment of the Estimated Excess Mortality from Hurricane María in Puerto Rico
and coding for causes of death, we consulted the
relevant scientic literature. We conducted a series
of checks on the mortality dataset, assessing it for
completeness, timeliness, internal consistency
and the quality of cause of death reporting by
evaluating garbage codes, or mis-assignments,
in the underlying cause of death.
Our third study assessed crisis and emergency risk
communications by the Government of Puerto Rico
before and after Hurricane María, with an emphasis
on the communications plans in place at the time
of the hurricane, trained staff dedicated to crisis
and emergency risk communication, procedures
for mortality reporting to the public, spokespeople
interaction with the media and key participant
perceptions of the government’s risk communication
and mortality reporting. For the communication
assessment methodology, instruments, and analytical
framework, we applied established guidelines from
CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) for
communication in emergencies, which are supported
by a robust scientic evidence base. We also applied
principles from the Federal Emergency Management
Agency (FEMA) Whole Community Approach for
community-based emergency preparedness (FEMA
2011). We interviewed 11 Puerto Rico Government
agency leadership and communications personnel
in order to understand: crisis and emergency risk
communication plans, processes and interagency
coordination for the preparation, approval and
dissemination of information to the public; their
experiences related to communications before and
after Hurricane María; and recommendations for
future communications in emergency situations.
We also interviewed 22 key leaders from different
communities in Puerto Rico, representing diverse
stakeholder groups including municipal mayors,
community and faith leaders, emergency responders,
police, non-prot organization personnel, health care
providers and funeral directors. In order to formulate
recommendations for future communications,
these interviews focused on understanding
stakeholder experiences from Hurricane María,
community involvement in disaster communications
planning and perceptions of the government’s risk
communication and mortality reporting.
To assess the post-hurricane information environment,
we reviewed 17 press releases and 20 press
conferences from September 20, 2017-February
28, 2018 to evaluate information content and
spokespeople performance, and to determine the
extent to which trustworthiness, credibility and
accountability were conveyed according to CDC and
WHO guidelines. Finally, we analyzed 172 media
coverage items from major English- and Spanish-
language news outlets during the same time period,
as well as related social media commentary, to
identify factors that may have contributed to public
concerns about mortality reporting, including: reasons
and timing of mortality data reporting; contradictory
information from spokespeople and alternative
sources; information gaps; and perceptions of
the accuracy and transparency of the Puerto Rico
Government’s mortality reports.
SUMMARY OF FINDINGS
Excess mortality estimation
We estimate that in mid-September 2017 there
were 3,327,917 inhabitants and in mid-February
2018 there were 3,048,173 inhabitants of Puerto
Rico, representing a population reduction by
approximately 8%. We factored this into the
migration “displacement scenario” and compared
it with a “census scenario,” which assumed no
displacement from migration in the hurricane’s
aftermath. We found that, historically, mortality
slowly decreased until August 2017, and that rates
increased for the period of September 2017 through
February 2018, with the most dramatic increase
shown in the displacement scenario accounting for
post-hurricane migration.
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