Presale:
GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
May 13, 2021
Preliminary Ratings
Class Preliminary rating Type Interest rate(i)
Preliminary amount
(mil. $)
Expected legal final
maturity date
A-1 A-1+ (sf) Senior Fixed 210.00 May 20, 2022
A-2 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 390.00 July 20, 2023
A-3 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 390.00 May 20, 2024
A-4 AAA (sf) Senior Fixed 111.43 May 20, 2025
B AA+ (sf) Subordinate Fixed 59.44 May 20, 2025
C AA- (sf) Subordinate Fixed 55.34 May 20, 2025
D A+ (sf) Subordinate Fixed 34.17 Sept. 22, 2025
Note: This presale report is based on information as of May 13, 2021. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in
the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as
evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)The actual coupons of these
tranches will be determined on the pricing date.
Profile
Expected closing date May 26, 2021.
Collateral Auto lease receivables.
Sponsor, servicer, and administrator AmeriCredit Financial Services Inc., doing business as GM Financial, a wholly owned
subsidiary of General Motors Financial Co. Inc. (BBB/Negative/--).
Issuer GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2.
Titling trust ACAR Leasing Ltd.
Depositor GMF Leasing LLC.
Indenture trustee, administrative
agent, and collateral agent
Wells Fargo Bank N.A. (A+/Stable/A-1).
Owner trustee Wilmington Trust Co.
Lead underwriter SG Americas Securities LLC.
Presale:
GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
May 13, 2021
PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST
Linda Yeh
New York
+ 1 (212) 438 2520
linda.yeh
@spglobal.com
SECONDARY CONTACT
Jennie P Lam
New York
+ 1 (212) 438 2524
jennie.lam
@spglobal.com
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2646535
Credit Enhancement Summary(i)
GMALT
2021-2 2021-1(ii) 2020-3
Rating
Class A A-1+ (sf)/AAA (sf) -- A-1+ (sf)/AAA (sf)
Class B AA+ (sf) -- AA+ (sf)
Class C AA- (sf) -- AA- (sf)
Class D A+ (sf) -- A+ (sf)
Subordination (%)
Class A 10.90 10.90 10.90
Class B 6.55 6.55 6.55
Class C 2.50 2.50 2.50
Class D N/A N/A N/A
Overcollateralization (%)
Initial 8.50 8.50 8.50
Target(iii) 10.00 10.00 11.00
Reserve account (%)
Initial 0.50 0.50 0.75
Target 0.50 0.50 0.75
Total initial hard credit enhancement (%)
Class A 19.90 19.90 20.15
Class B 15.55 15.55 15.80
Class C 11.50 11.50 11.75
Class D 9.00 9.00 9.25
Total target hard credit enhancement (%)(iv)
Class A 21.40 21.40 22.65
Class B 17.05 17.05 18.30
Class C 13.00 13.00 14.25
Class D 10.50 10.50 11.75
Discount rate (%) 6.50 6.50 6.75
Estimated excess spread per year (%)(v) 4.88 -- 4.88
Initial aggregate securitization value ($) 1,366,536,472 1,639,803,596 1,748,871,718
Total securities issued ($) 1,250,380,000 1,500,420,000 1,600,220,000
(i)All percentages are based on the initial aggregate securitization value. (ii)Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. (iii)For series 2020-3, the target
overcollateralization of 11.00% of the initial receivables will decrease to 10.00% after the class A-2-B notes are fully paid off. (iv)For series
2020-3, the total target credit enhancement will step down by 100 basis points in each rating category after the class A-2-B notes are fully paid
off. (v)The estimated annual excess spread reflects pre-pricing coupon guidance for series 2021-2 and 2020-3. GMALT--GM Financial
Automobile Leasing Trust. N/A--Not applicable.
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Rationale
The preliminary ratings assigned to GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2's (GMALT
2021-2's; the issuer's) asset-backed notes series 2021-2 reflect:
- The availability of approximately 28.2%, 23.8%, 19.6%, and 16.9% credit support for the class
A, B, C, and D notes, respectively, in the form of 10.90%, 6.55%, and 2.50% subordination for
the class A, B, and C notes, respectively; 8.50% initial overcollateralization, growing to a target
of 10.00%; the nonamortizing 0.50% reserve account; and excess spread (all percentages are
expressed as a percentage of the initial securitization value).
- Our expectation that under a moderate 'BBB' stress scenario, all else being equal, our
preliminary ratings on the class A notes would not be lowered and the ratings on the class B, C,
and D notes would remain within one rating category of the assigned preliminary ratings. These
rating movements are consistent with the credit stability limits specified by section A.4 of the
Appendix contained in S&P Global Ratings Definitions (see "S&P Global Ratings Definitions,"
published Jan. 5, 2021).
- The transaction's credit enhancement in the form of subordination, a nonamortizing reserve
account, nonamortizing overcollateralization that builds to target level as a percentage of the
initial aggregate securitization value, and excess spread (see the Credit Enhancement
Summary table above).
- The timely interest and full principal payments by the notes' legal final maturity dates made
under cash flow scenarios that we stressed for credit and residual losses, which are consistent
with the preliminary ratings assigned to the notes.
- The credit quality of the underlying collateral, which consists of auto lease receivables that
have a weighted average FICO score of 776.
- Our view of the transaction's base residual which includes Automotive Lease Guide's (ALG)
forecast of each vehicle's residual value at lease inception and of current residuals.
- The sufficiency of historical residual retention values of the leased vehicles in the pool and
relative comparison to ALG's residual value forecasts.
- The diversified mix of leased vehicle models in the pool.
- The diversified timing of the lease pool's residual maturities.
- Our view of the transaction's payment and legal structures.
S&P Global Ratings believes there remains high, albeit moderating, uncertainty about the
evolution of the coronavirus pandemic and its economic effects. Vaccine production is ramping up
and rollouts are gathering pace around the world. Widespread immunization, which will help pave
the way for a return to more normal levels of social and economic activity, looks to be achievable
by most developed economies by the end of the third quarter. However, some emerging markets
may only be able to achieve widespread immunization by year-end or later. We use these
assumptions about vaccine timing in assessing the economic and credit implications associated
with the pandemic (see our research here: www.spglobal.com/ratings). As the situation evolves,
we will update our assumptions and estimates accordingly.
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Transaction Overview
GMALT 2021-2 is GM Financial's second publicly placed auto lease term securitization this year
and its 22nd overall auto lease term transaction. It is also the 16th auto lease transaction from GM
Financial that we have rated.
The receivables backing the GMALT 2021-2 pool will consist of the monthly lease payments and
base residual values (as defined in the Residual Value section) of a pool of lease contracts
originated by GM dealers. The leased vehicles will consist primarily of new GM-brand passenger
cars, sport utility vehicles (SUVs), crossover utility vehicles (CUVs), and light-duty trucks. As with
prior GMALT securitizations, series 2021-2 includes nonamortizing subordination for the senior
notes, a nonamortizing reserve account amount, and an initial overcollateralization with a
nonamortizing target level.
The issuing trust will issue four class A notes, as well as class B, C, and D notes. All classes of
notes will pay a fixed rate of interest.
Changes From The Series 2021-1 and 2020-3 Transactions
There were no material changes in credit enhancement from GMALT 2021-1, which we did not
rate.
Credit enhancement changes from GMALT 2020-3, which is the last GMALT transaction we rated,
include:
- The nonamortizing reserve account amount decreased to 0.50% of the initial aggregate
securitization value from 0.75%. However, the reserve account amount is consistent with series
2020-1 and prior GMALT transactions.
- The discount rate decreased to 6.50% from 6.75%.
Notable changes in the collateral composition and structure from series 2021-1, which we did not
rate, include the following:
- The weighted average seasoning decreased to 11.8 months from 13.0.
- The percentage of cars decreased to 5.7% from 6.2%.
- The percentage of leases with an original term of 36 months or less is 53.1%, an increase from
51.2%.
- The percentage of leases with an original term between 37-48 months is 46.9%, a decrease
from 48.8%.
Notable changes in the collateral composition and structure from series 2020-3 include the
following:
- The weighted average seasoning decreased to 11.8 months from 12.7 months.
- The percentage of cars decreased to 5.7% from 6.1%.
- The percentage of leases with an original term of 36 months or less was 53.1%, a decrease from
55.7%.
- The percentage of leases with an original term between 37-48 months was 46.9%, an increase
from 44.3%.
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Overall, we believe the series 2021-2 pool's credit quality is generally comparable to the series
2021-1 and 2020-3 pools. We lowered our expected cumulative net credit loss to 0.70% from
0.80% for 2020-3, reflecting, in our view, the strong credit performance of prior GMALT
transactions and the strong credit characteristics of series 2021-2 similar to prior GMALT
transactions.
Our 'AAA', 'AA+', 'AA-', and 'A+' stressed credit losses are approximately 3.5%, 3.2%, 2.6%, and
2.3%, respectively, of the securitization value.
Our 'AAA', 'AA+', 'AA-', and 'A+' residual haircuts for the GMALT 2020-3 pool are approximately
28.1%, 24.8%, 20.4%, and 19.1%, respectively, of the pool's aggregate undiscounted base
residual value. In deriving our residual stress, we considered the base residual value of the leased
vehicles in the pool compared to its historical retention values. We also considered the pool's
residual maturity profile, the vehicle concentration, the vehicle segment concentration, the
consistency of ALG's residual forecasts regarding the historical retention values of General Motors
Co. (GM) vehicles (Chevrolet, GMC, Cadillac, and Buick), and our economic and industry outlooks.
Our total stressed losses (credit and residual) are approximately 22.8%, 19.9%, 15.9%, and 14.6%
for the 'AAA', 'AA+', 'AA-', and 'A+' rated notes, respectively, as a percentage of the initial
aggregate securitization value. In our view, the credit enhancement outlined above and in the Cash
Flow Modeling section provides adequate support for our assigned preliminary ratings.
Legal Structure
GM Financial makes loans to ACAR Leasing Ltd. (the titling trust), which allows the titling trust to
purchase leases and leased vehicles from GM dealers. The leased vehicles are titled in the titling
trust's name.
On the series 2021-2 transaction's closing date, the titling trust will issue an exchange note (the
series 2021-2 exchange note) to GM Financial that is secured by the series 2021-2 designated
pool of leases and the related leased vehicles. GM Financial will sell the exchange note to GMF
Leasing LLC, the depositor, in a true sale. The depositor will then transfer and assign the exchange
note to GMALT 2021-2, a newly formed Delaware statutory trust and the issuing entity, in
exchange for the asset-backed notes, which will represent the issuing entity's obligations (see
chart 1). The issuing entity will pledge and assign the exchange note to the indenture trustee,
which will hold a first-priority, perfected security interest in the exchange note for the series
2021-2 noteholders' benefit. GM Financial is the servicer for the leases and the related leased
vehicles held by the titling trust and will continue to service them under GMALT 2021-2.
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Chart 1
In rating this transaction, S&P Global Ratings will review the legal matters that it believes are
relevant to its analysis, as outlined in its criteria.
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) Risk
GM Financial uses a collateral agent, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., to hold a security interest in all newly
originated leases and leased vehicles for GM Financial's and the exchange noteholders' benefit.
The security interest in the leases is perfected by filings under the Uniform Commercial Code, and
the security interest in the leased vehicles is perfected by a notation on each vehicle's certificate
of title under state motor vehicle registration laws.
S&P Global Ratings expects to receive an opinion of counsel to the issuer, subject to customary
assumptions and qualifications, to the effect that the collateral agent's security interest in the
leases and leased vehicles would be before a lien in favor of PBGC and the notice of which will be
filed after the series 2021-2 notes are issued. A PBGC lien could be imposed against the assets of
any member of the GM-controlled group in the event of unpaid minimum contributions to a
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
defined benefit pension plan required by law or if an underfunded defined benefit pension plan
terminates.
Payment Structure
On each payment date, the servicer is entitled to receive its fee of 1.00% per annum for its
performance during the previous collection period. In addition, on each payment date before the
notes have been accelerated following an event of default, the indenture trustee will make
distributions from available funds according to the payment priority shown in table 1. Principal on
the notes will be paid sequentially.
Table 1
Payment Waterfall (Before Acceleration Following An Event Of Default)
Priority Payment
1 To any successor servicer, unpaid transition fees up to $200,000; to the indenture and owner
trustees, fees, expenses, and indemnities up to $100,000 and $100,000, respectively, per year; and
to the asset representations reviewer, up to $200,000 per year.
2 Interest on the class A notes, pari passu.
3 Principal on the class A notes, sequentially, until the class A note balance reaches parity with the
aggregate securitization value as of the end of the previous collection period.
4 The remaining principal balance of any class A notes on their respective final scheduled
distribution date.
5 Interest on the class B notes.
6 Principal on the class A and B notes until their combined note balance reaches parity with the
aggregate securitization value as of the end of the previous collection period.
7 The remaining principal balance of the class B notes on their final scheduled distribution date.
8 Interest on the class C notes.
9 Principal on the class A, B, and C notes until their combined note balance reaches parity with the
aggregate securitization value as of the end of the previous collection period.
10 The remaining principal balance of the class C notes on their final scheduled distribution date.
11 Interest on the class D notes.
12 Principal on the class A, B, C, and D notes until their combined note balance reaches parity with the
aggregate securitization value as of the end of the previous collection period.
13 The remaining principal balance of the class D notes on their final scheduled distribution date.
14 The noteholders' principal distributable amount (the paydown of the pool over the current
collection period), paid sequentially.
15 The reserve account, up to its required level.
16 Pay principal to achieve the target overcollateralization.
17 Any unpaid fees and expenses due to the successor servicer, indenture and owner trustees, and
asset representations reviewer.
18 All remaining amounts to the certificateholder.
On each payment date after a monetary event of default occurs, after the acceleration of the notes
following an event of default, or after the liquidation of the trust estate, the indenture trustee will
distribute the available funds according to the payment priority shown in table 2.
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Table 2
Payment Waterfall (After Acceleration Following An Event Of Default)
Priority Payment
1 Any amounts due and owing to any successor servicer, the indenture and owner trustees, and
the asset representations reviewer, without regard to any caps.
2 To the class A noteholders, the note interest amounts, pro rata.
3 To the class A-1 noteholders, the outstanding principal amount of the class A-1 notes until paid
in full and then, pro rata to the class A-2, A-3, and A-4 noteholders, the outstanding principal
amount of each class until paid in full.
4 To the class B noteholders, the note interest amounts.
5 To the class B noteholders, the outstanding principal amount of the class B notes until paid in
full.
6 To the class C noteholders, the note interest amounts.
7 To the class C noteholders, the outstanding principal amount of the class C notes until paid in
full.
8 To the class D noteholders, the note interest amounts.
9 To the class D noteholders, the outstanding principal amount of the class D notes until paid in
full.
10 To the noteholders, any other amount due and owing under the program documents and not
previously distributed.
11 All remaining amounts to the certificateholder.
Managed Portfolio
As of March 31, 2021, GM Financial's total U.S. portfolio of retail lease contracts consisted of
1,320,394 contracts totaling approximately $40.3 billion, an approximately 5% decline from a year
earlier (see table 3). Since 2012, GM Financial's lease portfolio has experienced strong growth,
more than doubling each year between 2012 and 2015, with steady growth continuing through
2018. Since 2018, GM Financial's auto lease portfolio has slowly declined year-over-year. Total
30-plus-day delinquencies and repossessions decreased to 0.42% and 0.23%, for the three
months ended March 31, 2021, from 0.86% and 0.26%, respectively, a year earlier. Net losses as a
percentage of average value of leases outstanding also decreased, to 0.04% from 0.08%.
Since 2015, GM Financial has realized greater residual retention on returned vehicles over ALG's
estimate as shown by the gains experienced each year.
Table 3
Total Managed Portfolio
Three months ended
March 31 Year ended Dec. 31
2021 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Lease contracts
outstanding (mil. $)
40,344.43 42,621.01 40,240.80 43,106.15 44,995.57 38,016.40 35,658.15 20,367.58
Avg. dollar amount of
leases outstanding
(mil. $)
40,371.56 42,901.78 41,262.96 44,100.38 45,091.84 39,672.89 29,232.37 13,050.07
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Table 3
Total Managed Portfolio (cont.)
Three months ended
March 31 Year ended Dec. 31
2021 2020 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
No. of contracts
outstanding
1,320,394 1,450,295 1,332,475 1,473,651 1,573,913 1,346,532 1,212,137 692,596
30-plus-day
delinquencies (%)(i)
0.42 0.86 0.67 1.03 1.30 1.44 1.25 1.28
Repossessions (%)(i) 0.23 0.26 0.98 1.25 1.59 1.80 1.03 0.60
Net losses (%)(ii) 0.04 0.08 0.23 0.33 0.27 0.28 0.23 0.17
Vehicles returned to
GMF (%)(iii)
62.01 74.71 65.99 74.65 76.51 93.38 68.83 69.00
Total loss/(gain) on
ALG residuals on
vehicles returned to
GMF (%)(iv)
(20.27) (7.49) (12.52) (7.61) (13.02) (7.96) (6.29) (8.96)
(i)As a percentage of the number of contracts outstanding. (ii)As a percentage of the average value of leases outstanding, annualized. (iii)As a
percentage of the number of contracts scheduled to terminate. (iv)As a percentage of ALG's residual value of returned vehicles sold by GMF.
GMF--GM Financial Co. Inc. ALG--Automotive Lease Guide.
Securitization Performance
GM Financial's paid-off series 2014-1 through 2018-1 experienced cumulative net credit losses in
the range of 0.05%-0.34%, while the most recently paid-off series 2018-2 and 2018-3 experienced
cumulative net credit gains of 0.08% and 0.10%, respectively (see chart 2). All the paid-off series
have experienced cumulative residual gains in the range of 3.44%-8.28% on vehicles returned and
sold as a percentage of the initial base residual (see chart 3).
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Chart 2
Chart 3
Series 2019-1 to 2020-3, which have seven to 26 months of performance data, are currently
experiencing credit gains and realizing residual gains as returned vehicles continue to maintain
higher values than the initial forecasts (see charts 4 and 5). The cumulative residual gains are as a
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
percentage of the transactions' initial base residual value.
S&P Global Ratings did not rate series 2014-1, 2014-2, 2015-1, 2016-3, 2017-3, and 2021-1.
Chart 4
Chart 5
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
On Nov. 9, 2020, we lowered our credit loss expectation for series 2019-1, 2019-2, and 2019-3 due
to the strong credit loss experience observed and either raised or affirmed our outstanding ratings
(see table 4 and "Six Ratings Raised, 11 Affirmed On Three GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust
Series," published Nov. 9, 2020).
Table 4
Collateral Performance (%)
As of the April 2021
distribution date
Series Month
Pool
factor
Current CNL
loss/(gain)(i)
Original
lifetime CNL
exp.
Revised
lifetime CNL
exp.(ii)
Current cumulative
residual loss/(gain)(iii)
2019-1 26 25.27 (0.13) 0.80 0.30 (7.55)
2019-2 24 33.75 (0.11) 0.80 0.40 (6.07)
2019-3 20 45.80 (0.17) 0.80 0.50 (4.58)
2020-1 14 65.33 (0.11) 0.80 -- (2.67)
2020-2 10 82.98 (0.04) 0.80 -- (0.62)
2020-3 7 87.03 (0.04) 0.80 -- (0.49)
(i)Percentage of the initial aggregate securitization value. (ii)As of November 2020. (iii)Percentage of the initial aggregate base residual value.
CNL--Cumulative net loss.
Collateral Analysis
The GMALT 2021-2 pool consists of 50,797 auto lease receivables with an aggregate securitization
value of $1,366,536,472. The weighted average FICO score is 776, and the weighted average
seasoning is 11.8 months (see table 5). The leased pool consists of 100% new vehicles and is well
diversified in vehicle model mix, with the top five vehicle models accounting for approximately
46% of the securitization value, or 48% of the undiscounted base residual. Passenger cars
account for approximately 6% of the pool, and SUVs and CUVs make up approximately 71%.
Leases with an original term of 25-36 months is approximately 49% of the securitization value.
Leases with an original term of 37-48 months is approximately 47% of the securitization value.
However, most of those leases (83%) have an original term of 37-42 months.
According to GM Financial, the GMALT 2021-2 lease pool does not include any leases that were
deferred as of the cutoff date, including those deferred in connection with the COVID-19
pandemic.
Table 5
Original Pool Characteristics
GMALT
2021-2 2021-1(i) 2020-3 2020-2 2020-1 2019-3 2019-2 2019-1
No. of leases 50,797 63,387 69,502 53,180 55,703 45,277 56,694 55,040
Aggregate
securitization
value ($)
1,366,536,472 1,639,803,596 1,748,871,718 1,373,635,168 1,366,219,095 1,093,238,377 1,366,625,322 1,332,675,534
Avg.
securitization
value ($)
26,902 25,870 25,163 25,830 24,527 24,146 24,105 24,213
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Table 5
Original Pool Characteristics (cont.)
GMALT
2021-2 2021-1(i) 2020-3 2020-2 2020-1 2019-3 2019-2 2019-1
Base residual
value ($)
1,007,438,849 1,208,172,876 1,302,507,950 957,427,059 1,008,368,821 810,791,750 1,009,711,895 989,423,236
Avg. base
residual
value ($)
19,833 19,060 18,741 18,004 $18,103 $17,907 17,810 17,976
Base residual
value as a %
of the
aggregate
securitization
value
73.7 73.7 74.5 69.7 73.8 74.2 73.9 74.2
Base residual
value as a %
of MSRP
48.0 46.7 46.4 44.6 45.5 45.7 45.4 45.4
New vehicles
(%)
100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
Vehicle types (%)
Car 5.7 6.2 6.1 5.6 7.9 10.7 12.3 13.7
CUV 59.9 62.4 63.1 61.2 59.2 58.1 53.6 52.5
SUV 11.5 9.8 9.0 10.8 11.3 11.4 12.7 12.7
Truck 22.9 21.6 21.8 22.5 21.6 19.8 21.4 21.1
Brand (%)
Chevrolet 54.5 53.8 54.7 51.4 56.3 56.3 56.9 54.3
GMC 18.8 19.2 19.8 19.1 19.2 19.2 19.9 19.9
Cadillac 18.4 17.5 16.4 19.7 15.7 15.4 14.3 16.1
Buick 8.3 9.5 9.0 9.8 8.9 9.1 8.9 9.7
Top five by vehicle series (% of base residual)
Silverado=
15.2
Equinox=14.9 Equinox=16.2 Equinox=19.1 Equinox=18.2 Equinox=19.0 Equinox=17.1 Equinox=15.2
Equinox=13.5 Silverado=14.0 Silverado=
13.7
Silverado=14.3 Silverado=13.7 Silverado=12.4 Silverado=13.5 Silverado=14.1
Traverse=7.0 Traverse=6.9 Traverse=8.0 XTS=6.7 Traverse=8.1 Traverse=7.9 Traverse=7.5 Traverse=7.1
Blazer=6.5 XT5=5.9 XT5=6.0 Terrain=6.5 XT5=6.5 Terrain=6.6 Terrain=6.6 XT5=6.7
Sierra=5.8 Sierra=5.6 Terrain=5.7 Traverse=5.7 Terrain=5.9 XT5=6.4 XT5=5.7 Terrain=6.2
Total 48.0 47.3 49.6 52.2 52.5 52.2 50.4 49.3
Weighted avg.
original term
(mos.)
37.5 38 37.3 38.0 37 37 37 37
Weighted avg.
remaining
term (mos.)
25.7 25 24.6 27.5 24 24 24 24
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2646535
Presale: GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust 2021-2
Table 5
Original Pool Characteristics (cont.)
GMALT
2021-2 2021-1(i) 2020-3 2020-2 2020-1 2019-3 2019-2 2019-1
Weighted avg.
seasoning
(mos.)
11.8 13 12.7 10.5 13 13 13 13
Original lease term (%)
Less than
or equal
to 36
mos.
53.1 51.2 55.7 27.4 52.7 53.8 50.4 51.9
37-48
mos.
46.9 48.8 44.3 72.6 47.3 46.2 49.6 48.1
49-60
mos.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Weighted
avg. FICO
score
776 775 776 771 773 774 763 775
Top four state concentrations (%)
MI=24.4 MI=24.2 MI=25.1 MI=18.4 MI=23.9 MI=23.5 MI=21.8 MI=22.2
NY=14.7 NY=14.8 NY=15.0 NY=14.6 NY=14.7 NY=15.0 NY=14.8 NY=14.4
FL=8.4 OH=8.1 OH=8.4 FL=9.2 OH=8.0 OH=7.7 OH=7.7 OH=7.5
OH=7.3 FL=7.6 FL=7.0 OH=8.6 FL=7.1 FL=7.1 FL=7.4 CA=7.0
(i) Not rated by S&P Global Ratings. GMALT--GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust.
Residual Value
The series 2021-2 pool will be secured by the series 2021-2 exchange note, which is backed by a
pool of leases (and the related leased vehicles) with a securitization value totaling $1,366,536,472.
The leases' securitization value is the sum of the present value of each lease's remaining monthly
lease payment and the related leased vehicle's base residual value (both discounted at the higher
of 6.50% and the contract annual percentage rate). Each leased vehicle's base residual value will
equal the lowest of:
- The contract residual value set by GM Financial;
- The residual value estimate established by ALG at the lease contract's inception; and
- ALG's current residual value estimate (mark-to-market).
The contract residual value is the residual value that is assigned to the vehicle at the lease's
inception (as stated in the lease contract), which, in turn, determines the monthly payments for
the individual lease. The contract residual value is typically set higher than ALG's residual value at
lease inception (a process called lease subvention) to reduce the lease payments the lessee owes
under the lease contract. The base residual value provides a more conservative estimate of the
vehicle's future value, which helps mitigate the noteholders' exposure to the losses associated
with lease subvention.
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ALG's current mark-to-market residual value estimates resulted in a positive drift or increase in
residual value of approximately 1.1% from its forecasted value at lease inception for the GMALT
2021-2 lease pool. We do not give any credit to the positive drift, based on the definition of the
base residual value, which takes the lower of contract, ALG at origination, and ALG
mark-to-market. GMALT 2021-2 pool's undiscounted base residual value is 73.7% of the pool's
securitization value, which is in line with series 2021-1 but slightly lower than the series 2020-3's
undiscounted base residual value of 74.5% of the securitization value at the transaction's closing.
Collateral Residual Timing
The leases in the GMALT 2021-2 pool are scheduled to mature as shown in table 6.
Table 6
GMALT 2021-2 Lease Maturity Profile By Year(i)
Year (%)
2021 5.96
2022 26.48
2023 44.77
2024 22.18
2025 0.61
(i)Percentage of the aggregate undiscounted base residual value. GMALT--GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust.
The pool is diversified in terms of monthly residual maturities. Leases will mature each month
beginning in July 2021 (see chart 6). Residual maturities in the pool exceed 5.0% in August 2023,
September 2023, October 2023, November 2023, December 2023, and January 2024. The highest
percentage of base residual maturities in any three- and six-month period is approximately 15%
and 31% in December 2023 and January 2024, respectively. Approximately 6% of the residuals are
scheduled to mature in 2021 and 68% scheduled to mature in 2023-2025. This back-end risk is
mitigated by our residual stresses and the transaction's sequential payment structure, in which
the overcollateralization target and reserve account target amounts will not amortize until all of
the notes are paid in full.
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Chart 6
S&P Global Ratings' Expected Credit And Residual Losses
GMALT 2021-2 has two principal risk components: credit and residual risks.
Credit risk
The obligor's credit profile determines the credit risk. To derive the base-case credit loss for the
series 2021-2 transaction, we examined the static pool losses on GM Financial's lease portfolio
originations segmented by credit profile (prime and nonprime) and by credit profile and lease term
as well as credit loss performance of prior GMALT securitizations. We considered the GMALT
2021-2 pool's collateral credit quality, GM Financial's overall managed portfolio performance,
collateral and performance comparisons with peers, and current macroeconomic factors. Based
on this information, we expect the GMALT 2021-2 pool's cumulative net credit loss will be 0.70%
of the pool's securitization value, down from 0.80% for series 2020-3, the last GMALT transaction
we rated.
Residual risk
In our analysis of the series 2021-2 pool's base residual value, we considered the following
factors:
- The base residual value derivation and whether any adjustments are necessary;
- The historical stability of retention values of GM's vehicle models at lease return;
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- The consistency and accuracy of ALG's historical forecasts versus the actual historical used
vehicle values;
- Availability and sufficiency of historical vehicle model residual realization data;
- Diversification of the lease pool by residual maturities, vehicle models, and vehicle type
segmentation;
- Inclusion of any new or discontinued models; and
- Our macroeconomic outlook.
Base haircut. According to our auto lease criteria, we first applied an initial haircut to the series
2021-2 pool's base residual value commensurate with each rating scenario as shown in table 7.
Table 7
Base Residual Haircut
Scenario (preliminary rating)
AAA (sf) AA+ (sf) AA- (sf) A+ (sf)
Base haircut as a % of undiscounted base residual value. 26.0 23.0 18.8 17.7
Excess concentration haircut. In addition to the aforementioned base haircut, we applied a
haircut to the amount of nondefaulted lease residuals exceeding the concentration limits
applicable to the benchmark pool (excess concentrations) as outlined in our auto lease criteria.
The haircut applied to excess concentrations commensurate with each rating scenario is shown in
table 8.
Table 8
Additional Excess Concentration Haircut(i)
Scenario (preliminary rating)
AAA (sf) AA+ (sf) AA- (sf) A+ (sf)
Haircut applied to the excess concentration as a % of the undiscounted
base residual value.
13.0 11.5 9.5 9.0
Total excess concentration for the GMALT 2021-2 pool is approximately 16.0% (see table 9).
Excess concentrations related to monthly residual maturities are minimal, amounting to 0.8%.
Segment excess concentration related to SUVs and trucks is approximately 7.2%. There is also an
excess concentration of 8.1% as a result of the new and discontinued models exceeding the 10.0%
threshold. The pool is well diversified by vehicle model; therefore, we did not apply an additional
haircut on it.
The 16.0% total excess concentration is multiplied by the relevant haircut to arrive at the
additional haircut percentage at each rating category.
Table 9
Benchmark Pool Excess Concentrations
GMALT 2021-2
Pool
Benchmark pool
concentration limit
Excess
concentration
One-month maturity exceeding the benchmark (% of undiscounted base residual)
August 2023 5.2 5.0 0.2
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Table 9
Benchmark Pool Excess Concentrations (cont.)
GMALT 2021-2
Pool
Benchmark pool
concentration limit
Excess
concentration
September 2023 5.1 5.0 0.1
October 2023 5.1 5.0 0.1
November 2023 5.1 5.0 0.1
December 2023 5.2 5.0 0.2
January 2024 5.1 5.0 0.1
Individual model (top model = Silverado) (%) 15.2 20.0 0.0
Full-size and mid-size SUVs, full-size pickup
trucks, and vans (%)
37.2 30.0 7.2
Compact and hybrid cars (%) 4.1 30.0 0.0
New and discontinued models (%) 18.1 10.0 8.1
Total excess concentration (%) -- -- 16.0
GMALT--GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust.
Speculative-grade manufacturer haircut. When determining the stress that applies to the
adjusted base residual value, we take into account the auto manufacturer's creditworthiness. Our
auto lease criteria apply haircuts to the base residual value of the vehicles produced by
manufacturers with speculative-grade issuer credit ratings (i.e., 'BB+' or lower).
GM is the manufacturer of the leased vehicles backing the GMALT 2021-2 pool. The current
long-term issuer credit rating on the company is 'BBB'. Based on the current issuer credit rating
on GM, we did not apply a speculative-grade manufacturer haircut to the series 2021-2
transaction.
Low diversification haircut. For pools with low diversification, as described in our auto lease
criteria, we will apply a low diversification haircut factor of 1.25x in addition to the aforementioned
haircuts. Our auto lease criteria describe the six conditions for which, if met by the securitized
lease pool, we would apply this type of haircut. These conditions are:
- More than 20% of the residuals mature in any one month;
- More than 50% of the residuals mature in any three months;
- The pool contains three or fewer individual models;
- The pool contains more than 75% of full-size and mid-size SUVs, full-size pickup trucks, and
full-size vans combined;
- The pool contains more than 75% of compact and hybrid cars combined; and
- The pool contains more than 20% of new and discontinued models combined.
The GMALT 2021-2 pool does not meet any of these six conditions; therefore, we did not apply the
low diversification haircut.
After analyzing the GMALT 2021-2 lease pool, applying the relevant residual value haircuts, and
assessing stressed return rates of 100.0%, 97.5%, 93.3%, and 91.7% at the 'AAA', 'AA+', 'AA-', and
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'A+' rating levels, respectively (representing the loss frequency on non-defaulted leased vehicles
of 93.0%, 93.7%, 94.9%, and 95.3%, respectively), our stressed residual loss under each rating
scenario is shown in table 10.
Table 10
Stressed Residual Loss
Scenario (preliminary rating)
AAA (sf) AA+ (sf) AA- (sf) A+ (sf)
Residual haircut as a % of undiscounted base residual 26.0 23.0 18.8 17.7
Additional excess concentration haircut (%)(i) 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.4
Total residual haircut as a % of base residual value 28.1 24.8 20.4 19.1
Total residual haircut as a % of securitization value 19.3 16.7 13.3 12.3
(i)The excess concentration haircuts are derived by multiplying the total excess concentration calculated in table 9 by each of the rating
category haircuts shown in table 8.
Cash Flow Modeling
We tested GMALT 2021-2's proposed structure using cash flow scenarios to determine if the
credit enhancement level was sufficient to pay timely interest and principal in full by the notes'
legal final maturity dates under our stress scenarios.
We modeled the transaction to simulate a stress scenario commensurate with the assigned
preliminary ratings. We assumed a 100.0%, 97.5%, 93.3%, and 91.7% vehicle return rate on the
nondefaulting leases at the 'AAA','AA+', 'AA-', and 'A+' rating levels, respectively, together with no
prepayments. The results show that the preliminary rated notes are enhanced to the degree
necessary to withstand a level of stressed credit and residual losses that is consistent with the
assigned preliminary ratings (see table 11).
Table 11
Cash Flow Assumptions And Results
Class
A B C D
Scenario (preliminary rating) AAA (sf) AA+ (sf) AA- (sf) A+(sf)
Cumulative net loss (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Cumulative net loss timing (mos.) 12/24/36 12/24/36 12/24/36 12/24/36
Cumulative net loss (%) 40/80/100 40/80/100 40/80/100 40/80/100
Voluntary prepayments (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Recoveries (%) 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0
Recovery lag (mos.) 4 4 4 4
Residual haircut
Total residual haircut as a % of the undiscounted base
residual value
28.1 24.8 20.4 19.1
Total residual haircut as a % of the securitization value 19.3 16.7 13.3 12.3
Total residual haircut as a % of the MSRP 13.5 11.9 9.8 9.2
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Table 11
Cash Flow Assumptions And Results (cont.)
Class
A B C D
Vehicle return rate (%) 100.0 97.5 93.3 91.7
Residual realization lag (mos.) 2 2 2 2
Result
S&P Global Ratings' stressed credit and residual loss as a
% of the securitization value
22.8 19.9 15.9 14.6
Approximate credit enhancement available based on S&P
Global Ratings' credit stress and break-even residual
stress as a % of the securitization value
28.2 23.8 19.6 16.9
MSRP--Manufacturer's suggested retail price.
Sensitivity Analysis
In addition to running stressed cash flows to analyze the amount of credit and residual losses
GMALT 2021-2 can withstand, we ran a sensitivity analysis on both scenarios to determine how
credit and residual losses, which are in line with a moderate stress scenario, or a 'BBB' rating
stress, could affect our ratings on the notes (see chart 7).
Under a moderate 'BBB' stress scenario, all else being equal, we expect our preliminary ratings on
the class A notes would not be lowered and the ratings on the class B, C, and D notes would
remain within one rating category of the assigned preliminary ratings. These rating movements are
consistent with the credit stability limits specified by section A.4 of the Appendix contained in S&P
Global Ratings Definitions (see "S&P Global Ratings Definitions," published Jan. 5, 2021). This
indicates that we will not assign a preliminary 'AAA (sf)' or 'AA (sf)' rating if we believe the rating
would decline by more than one rating category in the first year during a moderate stress scenario,
and we will not assign a preliminary 'A (sf)' rating if we believe that the rating would decline by
more than two rating categories in the first year.
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Chart 7
Money Market Tranche Sizing
The proposed money market tranche (the class A-1 notes) has a 12-month legal final maturity
date (May 20, 2022). To test whether the money market tranche can be repaid by month 11, we ran
cash flows using assumptions to delay the principal collections during the 11-month period. In our
cash flow run, we assumed zero defaults and a zero absolute prepayment speed on all leases. We
also stressed the recognition of the monthly lease payments and base residual amounts by
applying a one- and two-month lag, respectively. Based on our stressed cash flow runs, less than
11 months of collections would be sufficient to pay off the money market tranche.
Legal Final Maturity
To test the legal final maturity dates set for the longer-dated tranches (classes A-2 through C), we
determined the date on which the respective notes were fully amortized in a zero-loss,
zero-prepayment scenario, and then added six months to the result. We also verified that the
notes were paid off in our rating-specific stressed cash flow scenarios by their legal final maturity
dates. For the longest-dated security, class D, we added seven months to the tenor of the pool's
latest-maturing receivable to accommodate any lease term extensions and residual realization on
the receivables. In each cash flow scenario, we confirmed there is sufficient credit enhancement
both to cover losses and to repay the related notes in full by their legal final maturity date.
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Environmental, Social, And Governance (ESG)
Our rating analysis considers a transaction's potential exposure to ESG credit factors. For the Auto
ABS sector, we view the exposure to environmental credit factors as above average, to social
credit factors as average, and to governance credit factors as below average (see "ESG Industry
Report Card: Auto Asset-Backed Securities" published March 31, 2021).
In our view, the exposure to ESG credit factors in this transaction is in line with our sector
benchmark. Environmental credit factors are generally viewed as above average given that the
collateral pool primarily comprise vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE), which create
emissions of pollutants including greenhouse gases. While the adoption of electric vehicles and
future regulation could in time lower ICE vehicle values, we believe that our current approach to
evaluating recovery and residual values adequately account for vehicle values over the relatively
short expected life of the transaction. As a result, we have not separately identified this as a
material ESG credit factor in our analysis.
GM Financial
GM Financial is a wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Financial Co. Inc. (BBB/Negative/--),
which is a wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors Holdings LLC, which is, in turn, a wholly
owned subsidiary of GM (BBB/Negative/--). GM is a U.S. corporation that globally produces
passenger cars, CUVs, SUVs, and heavy-, medium-, and light-duty trucks. GM Financial is a
Delaware corporation formed on July 22, 1992. It is headquartered in Fort Worth, Texas.
GM Financial offers lease financing products for new GM vehicles through its regional credit
centers and dealer relationship managers and has active dealer agreements with the vast majority
of GM dealerships. The dealers originate leases that conform to GM Financial's credit policies, and
GM Financial then purchases and services the leases and the associated leased vehicles,
generally without recourse to the dealers.
Related Criteria
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Framework For Payment Structure And Cash
Flow Analysis Of Structured Finance Securities, Dec. 22, 2020
- Criteria | Structured Finance | Legal: U.S. Structured Finance Asset Isolation And
Special-Purpose Entity Criteria, May 15, 2019
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Counterparty Risk Framework: Methodology And
Assumptions, March 8, 2019
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Incorporating Sovereign Risk In Rating Structured
Finance Securities: Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 30, 2019
- General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Global Framework For Assessing Operational Risk In
Structured Finance Transactions, Oct. 9, 2014
- General Criteria: Global Investment Criteria For Temporary Investments In Transaction
Accounts, May 31, 2012
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Revised General Methodology And Assumptions For Rating
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U.S. ABS Auto Lease Securitizations, Nov. 29, 2011
- General Criteria: Principles Of Credit Ratings, Feb. 16, 2011
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: General Methodology And Assumptions For Rating U.S. Auto
Loan Securitizations, Jan. 11, 2011
- Criteria | Structured Finance | General: Methodology For Servicer Risk Assessment, May 28,
2009
- Criteria | Structured Finance | ABS: Assessing The Risk Of Pension Plan Terminations On U.S.
Auto Lease Securitizations, Aug. 17, 2004
Related Research
- Bulletin: General Motors Co. Rating Headroom Improves After Reiterated 2021 Guidance Amid
Headwinds, May 5, 2021
- Economic Research: U.S. Real-Time Data: Fertile Ground For A Continued Recovery, April 30,
2021
- SF Credit Brief: Loan Deferrals In U.S. Auto Loan ABS Reach Their Lowest Levels Since
COVID-19 Began; Deeper Dive Into Charge-Offs On Extended Loans, April 27, 2021
- Economic Research: U.S. Biweekly Economic Roundup: The Recovery Accelerates Amid
Consumer, Housing, And Industrial Gains, April 23, 2021
- Economic Research: U.S. Markets See Inflationary Ghosts; Macroeconomic Signs Disagree,
April 12, 2021
- Global Economic Outlook Q2 2021: The Recovery Gains Traction As Unevenness Abounds,
March 31, 2021
- ESG Industry Report Card: Auto Asset-Backed Securities, March 31, 2021
- Credit Conditions North America Q2 2021: As Outlook Brightens, Risks Remain, March 30, 2021
- Economic Outlook U.S. Q2 2021: Let The Good Times Roll, March 24, 2021
- Economic Research: Orderly Global Reflation Will Support The Recovery From COVID-19, March
22, 2021
- U.S. Auto Loan ABS Is Navigating Through COVID-19 With Better-Than-Expected Performance,
Feb. 10, 2021
- Global Structured Finance 2021 Outlook: Market Resilience Could Bring Over $1 Trillion In New
Issuance, Jan. 8, 2021
- Six Ratings Raised, 11 Affirmed On Three GM Financial Automobile Leasing Trust Series, Nov. 9,
2020
- General Motors Co. 'BBB' Rating Affirmed And Removed From CreditWatch; Outlook Negative,
Aug. 11, 2020
- Global Structured Finance Scenario And Sensitivity Analysis 2016: The Effects Of The Top Five
Macroeconomic Factors, Dec. 16, 2016
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