Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report
MMWR / March 18, 2016 / Vol. 65 / No. 10 267
US Department of Health and Human Services/Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
On March 11, 2016, this report was posted as an MMWR
Early Release on the MMWR website (http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr).
Since May 2015, when Zika virus, a flavivirus transmitted
primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, was reported in Brazil,
the virus has rapidly spread across the Region of the Americas
and the Caribbean. The association between maternal Zika
virus infection and adverse fetal and reproductive outcomes,
including microcephaly, prompted CDC to issue a Level 2
alert travel notice* for the 37 countries and U.S. territories
(at the national and territorial level) that have reported recent
Zika virus transmission as of March 11, 2016. In addition to
mosquito bite precautions for all travelers, CDC advises that
pregnant women postpone travel to affected countries and
U.S. territories. Within a nation’s borders, ecologic character-
istics, which determine the distribution of mosquito vectors,
can vary considerably. CDC conducted a spatial analysis,
focusing on the probability of occurrence of Ae. aegypti, to
support the demarcation for subnational travel alerts. Based
on results of this analysis, travel that is limited to elevations
higher than 2,000 m (6,562 ft) above sea level is considered
to have minimal (approximately 1%) likelihood for mosquito-
borne Zika virus transmission, even within countries reporting
active transmission. Women who are pregnant should avoid
travel to elevations <2,000 m in countries with active Zika
virus transmission.
Zika virus is a flavivirus primarily transmitted by Aedes spe-
cies mosquitoes (1). In May 2015, the Pan American Health
Organization (PAHO) issued an alert regarding the first con-
firmed Zika virus infections in Brazil (2). Currently, outbreaks
of Zika virus disease are occurring in many countries and U.S.
territories, and as of March 11, 2016, CDC had issued 37
Level 2 travel notices for areas with ongoing Zika virus trans-
mission.
†
Currently, when laboratory-confirmed local Zika
virus transmission is first reported, travel notices are issued for
the entire country or U.S. territory. Establishing more precisely
defined areas of Zika virus risk in a country or U.S. territory
is complicated by incomplete surveillance data on the disease
and the presence of the mosquito vector.
In an effort to develop more precise guidance for travelers,
CDC evaluated whether subnational travel notices could be
based on an ecologic indicator of the probable absence of the
predominant Zika virus mosquito vector, Ae. aegypti. Within
a nation’s borders, ecologic factors, such as temperature,
precipitation, vegetation, and human population density, that
define suitable habitats for Aedes species vary. Where habitat
is unsuitable, the mosquito vector is likely to be absent, and
risk for mosquito-borne Zika virus transmission is likely to
be negligible.
The first step in developing subnational travel notices
required identification of a single, easily quantifiable ecologic
variable that could be used as a substitute for the likely absence
of Ae. aegypti. Of the many ecologic factors affecting habitat
suitability and Ae. aegypti survival as a vector for Zika virus,
temperature has been the most frequently investigated and
rigorously quantified (3); however, temperature varies widely
and is difficult to predict locally and over the long term.
Historically, elevation has served as a reasonable proxy for
temperature. Because it is static and relatively easy to measure
(4), elevation was selected for further investigation. Previous
reports from various global regions suggest that Ae. aegypti is
present, but rare, between elevations of 1,700–2,100 m (5,6).
Therefore, this analysis was restricted to countries and U.S.
territories that have 1) ongoing Zika virus transmission and
2) areas with high elevations (starting at >1,500 m). Sixteen
countries, including Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala,
Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Nicaragua,
Panama, and Venezuela have areas which fit these criteria.
§
No U.S. territories had elevations at that level.
Spatial analyses were conducted using multiple data sets:
global data on predicted probabilities of the presence of
Ae. aegypti based on 20,000 observed occurrences during
1960–2014 (7); remotely sensed data on human population
density (8); global geographic data on human dengue cases
Revision to CDC’s Zika Travel Notices: Minimal Likelihood for Mosquito-Borne
Zika Virus Transmission at Elevations Above 2,000 Meters
Martin Cetron, MD
1
* CDC provides updated travel information on areas with ongoing Zika virus
transmission. http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices.
†
American Samoa, Aruba, Barbados, Bolivia, Bonaire, Brazil, Cape Verde,
Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador,
French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,
Marshall Islands, Martinique, Mexico, New Caledonia, Nicaragua, Panama,
Paraguay, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, Saint Vincent and Grenadines, Samoa,
Sint Maarten, Suriname, Tonga, Trinidad and Tobago, U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Venezuela.
§
CDC provides updated travel notice maps for areas with ongoing Zika virus
transmission, including Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican
Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica,
Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, and Venezuela. http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/
zika-travel-information.