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child is “at risk” of a poor outcome. Also, as discussed below, both general goals and specific target outcomes can
be useful, but for different purposes.
HOW CAN MEASURES OF “AT RISK” BE USED?
Programs increasingly are being asked to develop logic models, provide program plans, and implement evaluation
strategies. Each task might call for assessing “at risk,” but different measures of “at risk” might be used for each
purpose. For example, in developing a logic model, program staff might want to understand the characteristics of
the community. Are children “at risk” because of poverty, crime, toxins or pollution, low levels of English
proficiency, poorly performing schools, unemployment, or several of these kinds of factors? On the other hand,
decisions about which children to enroll in a program or to target for a program may be based on current or
historical information about the child or his/her family. For example, has the child frequently been absent from
school or been suspended or expelled? Is the family in poverty? In evaluating a program, however, the focus
moves to the specific outcomes for which children and adolescents are at risk in the future. These outcomes might
include pregnancy, school dropout, arrest or drug use.
HOW SHOULD “AT RISK” BE ASSESSED?
To assess risk, a survey could be administered, or administrative data or government statistics could be used.
If children are at the center of the “at risk” definition, then it will be necessary to obtain data about individual
children from school records or other administrative data or from a survey of children or parents.
If family characteristics are used to define risk, data might be available from the school, or it might be available
from other administrative record systems, such as those pertaining to food stamps or Medicaid. Also, it might be
possible to administer a survey to parents to obtain information about the family that would inform the program
about the levels of risk that a family experiences.
If community characteristics are used to define risk, local area data from the U.S. Census or the American
Community Survey might be used to describe the community. Crime statistics are also available for every city, as
are vital statistics data on teen births and mortality. Community-level surveys also provide information about risks
faced at the community level.
WHAT ABOUT PROTECTIVE FACTORS?
Do programs only want to know about the risks faced by children and families in their schools and communities?
Assets, strengths, and protective factors also can be valuable to assess. Even though some children, families, and
communities face multiple risks, most also will have assets and protective factors.
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For example, a positive, caring
relationship with a parent can inoculate against many risks.
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Ongoing positive relationships with other adults
represent another critical protective factor.
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WHAT MEASURES ARE USED TO ASSESS “AT RISK”?
Children have been defined as “at risk” with a variety of different indicators, including having limited reading
proficiency, having experienced abuse or trauma, having a disability or illness, or having exhibited behavior
problems.
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Measures of family risk include poverty, a low level of parental education, a large number of children, not owning
a home, single parenthood,
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welfare dependence,
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family dysfunction, abuse,
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parental mental illness, parental
substance use, and family discord or illness.
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Measures of community risk might include rates of poverty, crime, unemployment, or teen parenthood in the
community.